Jumat, 30 Juli 2021

Searching for Clues in a Forward-Looking Market

Money & Crisis

July 30, 2021

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Searching for Clues in a Forward-Looking Market

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Graham SummersDear Money & Crisis Reader,

Yesterday President Biden suggested that the US might face another wave of lockdowns. Among the various policies he hinted at were:

  1. Mandating that all Americans get the COVID-19 vaccines.
  1. Shutting down businesses, schools, and society like in 2020.

The question now is whether this is a political ploy or if the American people will go along with these proposed policies.

After all, the only reason we had lockdowns in 2020 was because people complied.

I’m not a psychic and cannot claim to have answers to this. But I do know that the stock market is forward­-looking and can provide us with some clues.

After all, back in 2020, stocks began to collapse in late February, several weeks before the country formally went into lockdown.

S&P 500

Today, stocks are not collapsing (at least not yet).

We had the beginnings of a breakdown in mid-July, but that quickly reversed and gave way to new all-time highs. Moreover, that particular breakdown wasn’t distinguishable from other corrections over the last six months.

beginning of a breakdown

Still, it’s always good to keep an eye on things. So below are two stocks I’m watching for signs of whether or not another round of lockdowns is coming.

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Two Stocks Forecasting Another Lockdown

First is Delta Airlines (DAL).

Airlines were one of the hardest hit industries from the 2020 lockdowns. DAL was no exception with shares collapsing over 70% during the first wave of lockdowns (red rectangle).

If we’re heading into another round of lockdowns, I would expect this chart to breakdown BADLY in the coming days. DAL shares have begun to breakdown, but they’ve yet to really nosedive.

Delta (DAL)

Another company I’m watching is Alpha Pro Tech (APT).

This company makes masks, hazmat suits, shields, and other infection control apparel. If we were going towards another round of lockdowns, I would expect to see APT shares start to explode higher as they did in February of 2020 (red rectangle).

Alpha Pro Tech (APT)

Is another COVID-19 shutdown coming? I don’t know. But if it does, we will likely experience another financial crisis.

Best Regards,

Graham Summers

Graham Summers
Editor, Money & Crisis

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