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Is it Time to Get Back into Gold?

Money & Crisis

July 26, 2021

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Is it Time to Get Back into Gold?

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Graham SummersDear Money & Crisis Reader,

On Friday we outlined the strange price action in gold.

As a quick recap:

  1. Because we are in a fiat-based monetary regime, gold trades like any other asset.
  1. Specifically, gold typically tracks “real rates” or the actual cost of money calculated as the difference between yields on Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) and regular Treasuries.
  1. Recently a massive divergence has developed between real rates and gold.

Regarding the third point in the list above, the divergence between the two items is quite large, which means either real rates need to come down, or gold needs to catch up.

Gold vs. Real rates

I believe we will see gold begin its next leg up relatively shortly.

Why?

Because real rates usually lead gold on turns. Let’s go back to the COVID-19 meltdown…

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Note that real rates (top chart) bottomed a few days before gold did (bottom chart). Real rates bottomed on March 12, while gold bottomed on March 20.

Chart: March 2020

We saw this same dynamic play out again more recently in June of 2021 when real rates bottomed on June 17 (red circle) while gold didn’t bottom until the June 29 (blue circle).

Chart: June 2021

This would suggest that real rates will in fact lead gold higher going forward. Again, real rates have been soaring while gold is struggling to ignite higher. The chart at the top suggests gold will eventually be running to $2,000 per ounce in the coming months.

What would trigger a run like this?

Inflation.

I’ll outline how and why in tomorrow’s article until then…

Best Regards,

Graham Summers

Graham Summers
Editor, Money & Crisis

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