A year ago, my option had no intrinsic value but it did have more than two years until it expired. Until a week ago, the past year was basically a waste of time. What I gained in share price appreciation, I lost in time decay. In this case, twelve months of time decay was equal to a $2 rise in GE's share price. That means I can make the same decision today that I made a year ago. If I am no longer confident that GE will rise above $12.40 within the next 14 months, I can sell my option and get all my money back. I'm not going to do that. I like the way Culp is running the company and believe General Electric will continue to show improvement through next year. Culp was wise to take his medicine last fall, while the stock market was going through a correction. He cut the quarterly cash dividend to a penny and sold off under-performing assets. Signs of Life Now, the company is starting to show some life. Along with better-than-expected Q3 earnings, GE raised its cash flow guidance for 2019 by at least $1 billion. With only three months left in the year, General Electric wouldn't make that bold of a prediction unless it already knew it could achieve it. So, I'm not worried about how its Q4 numbers will affect the value of my option. What I am worried about is another stock market correction. Despite its huge drop in value, General Electric is still a component of the S&P 500 Index. If the index takes a hit, so will most of the stocks that comprise the index. At this point, there isn't much I can do to guard against that risk. Sure, I could buy a put option on General Electric at the same $10 strike price also expiring in January 2021. At the start of this week, that option would have cost me $1.20. That's in addition to the $2.40 I paid a year ago for my call option. That means GE would have to rise above $13.60 for me to make money on this trade. On the downside, GE would have to fall below $6.60 for me to recoup my investment. I don't think that could happen unless the stock market completely crashes next year. So, I'm just going to wait it out and hope for the best. But maybe you're looking for even bigger gains. Consider our new trading advisory, which provides the latest, most promising marijuana investment trades available: Precision Pot Trader. We're so confident about this publication, we're making you a bold promise: if you don't get 52 "turbo" pot trades from Precision Pot Trader in the next year-which averages out to a triple or quadruple-digit profit opportunity once a week-let us know and we'll give you another year of the publication, on the house. Want to find the absolutely best pot stocks, for market-crushing gains? Click here to get started. |
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