| TQ Morning Briefing | BHP reported copper overtook iron ore in earnings for the first time, driven by AI power demand. US envoys open nuclear talks with Iran and peace talks with Ukraine in Geneva. The physical buildout is accelerating. The geopolitical surface area is widening. Capital has to choose which layer it trusts. | | | | | | The S&P turned negative on the year last week. Futures are extending the slide. | S&P futures are down 0.25% this morning. Nasdaq 100 futures are off 0.7%. The Dow is flat. | Markets reopened after Monday's Presidents Day holiday into a shortened week with thinned liquidity. China, South Korea, and Taiwan remain closed for Lunar New Year. | The 10-year yield slipped to 4.04%, its lowest since early December. That's a 50-basis-point decline from January's peak. The Nasdaq's fifth straight losing week confirmed what the weekend editions laid out: rates aren't the binding variable anymore. | The market got CPI at 2.4%, softer than expected, and didn't care. Bonds are doing their job. Equities are ignoring the help. That tells you the repricing is about business models, not the cost of capital. | When falling yields stop stabilizing equities, the market is no longer debating policy. It is auditing earnings durability. | The dollar held steady overnight. WTI crude sits near $62.50 with US-Iran nuclear talks opening in Geneva today and Iran conducting live-fire drills in the Strait of Hormuz. | Gold pulled back from record highs near $5,000. Bitcoin is range-bound around $68,000. | European markets told their own story Monday. The DAX fell 0.4%, dragged by Siemens dropping 6.5% on AI concerns while defense stocks rallied after the Munich Security Conference pushed for greater European military spending. | The AI disruption trade has crossed the Atlantic. The defense spending trade has a new political mandate behind it. | Trade Implication
If yields keep sliding and equities keep fading, the problem isn't the cost of capital. It's the earnings power underneath it. Watch whether rate-sensitive names like XLRE and IWM respond to the 10Y below 4.05%, or whether AI fear continues spreading into industrial names. |
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| | | | | WHAT ACTUALLY MOVED MARKETS |
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| | | The AI split is showing up in new places and new asset classes. | The disruption trade crossed into European industrials. | Saturday's recap framed the sorting mechanism: long the physical stack, short the fee layers. That framework extended Monday. | Siemens and SAP both fell in Frankfurt on AI margin concerns. The repricing is no longer confined to US software. It's reaching European conglomerates with automation-exposed revenue lines. | Domestically, the S&P 500 Software & Services Index bounced Friday after eight consecutive losing sessions, but futures suggest the reprieve was temporary. The WisdomTree Cloud Computing Fund remains down roughly 20% year to date. That is not a dip. That is a re-rating. | BHP confirmed the physical buildout thesis from the commodity side. | BHP reported half-year profit up 22% to $6.2 billion. Copper overtook iron ore for the first time, making up 51% of total earnings, driven by a 32% jump in realized copper prices. Shares jumped 7% to an all-time high. | The company announced an $18 billion copper investment in Argentina with Lundin Mining, the largest new mine commitment tied directly to AI power demand. | Saturday covered Cisco's margin problem selling into hyperscalers. BHP shows the raw material layer printing record economics. Pricing power depends on where you sit in the stack. | Execution Bias | The semiconductor-software divergence is established. The newer trade is physical commodities that enable the buildout. Copper miners (COPX, FCX) and power infrastructure benefit from the same demand compressing software margins. The mistake is treating all "AI exposure" as the same trade. |
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| | | | The European session split cleanly. Defense names like Rheinmetall and Leonardo extended gains on post-Munich momentum. | Automation-exposed industrials sold. European capital is rotating from AI-vulnerable names into sovereignty-linked ones. That rotation has US parallels in ITA and XAR versus IGV and XSW. | BHP's copper-over-iron-ore milestone tells the same story from a different seat. Iron ore is a China construction cycle. Copper is an AI power cycle. Global capital is choosing the latter. | Mag 7 names remain broadly lower in pre-market. Leadership continues tilting toward defensives. | Walmart approaching $1 trillion in market cap is the clearest expression of where institutional capital is hiding. Breadth has not improved. | The equal-weight S&P continues to underperform the cap-weighted index, which means the tape is narrowing even as the index holds near highs. | That is not healthy rotation. It is narrowing liquidity around perceived safety. | Execution Bias | If Geneva talks progress on either track, defense gives back some of the Munich premium. If talks stall, European defense spending becomes a multi-year allocation theme. |
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| | | | | | US-Iran nuclear talks and Russia-Ukraine peace talks open simultaneously today, with Trump envoys Witkoff and Kushner shuttling between both. | Iran conducted live-fire drills in the Strait of Hormuz overnight. The USS Gerald Ford is en route. Trump said Monday he'd be "indirectly" involved and told Ukraine to "come to the table, fast." | The Iran track matters more immediately for positioning. | Any breakthrough on sanctions relief adds oil supply and pushes WTI lower. Any escalation raises the Hormuz premium. | The Ukraine track has low expectations, but Trump's June deadline creates a forcing function. | FOMC minutes (Wednesday) arrive with a wrinkle. Senators Schumer and Warren pressed Warsh last week on whether he signed a loyalty pledge to Trump. | That question now hangs over every line about Fed independence. PCE (Friday) alongside Q4 GDP remains the week's macro fulcrum. | The Supreme Court may also rule on Trump's tariff authority as early as Thursday, adding another layer of policy uncertainty to an already dense calendar. | Investor Signal | If Iran talks progress, oil reprices lower and defense fades. If talks collapse, watch crude above $65 and ITA, XAR extend. The Warsh question adds a governance premium to rates volatility this week. |
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| | | | Palo Alto Networks (PANW) reports after the close. Consensus expects $2.58 billion in revenue, 14% growth, and $0.93 in earnings per share. | What makes tonight different is timing. Eight sessions of software destruction preceded this report. The market needs to decide whether cybersecurity, where AI creates larger attack surfaces and more endpoints to secure, sits on the builder side of the AI split or the casualty side. | PANW is up 2.6% pre-market. The market is leaning toward exemption. But pre-market direction has been unreliable during this software sell-off. Cisco was higher pre-market before its report too. | Edge Setup | PANW above $195 on strong next-gen ARR growth confirms cybersecurity as an AI beneficiary, setting up CIBR and HACK as buy-the-dip candidates. A beat-and-raise that fails to hold tells you the software discount is indiscriminate and the IGV short remains structurally intact. |
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| | | | Economic Data: ADP Weekly Employment Change, NY Empire State Manufacturing Index, NAHB Housing Market Index | Fed Speakers: Barr, Daly | Earnings: Palo Alto Networks (PANW), Cadence Design (CDNS), Republic Services (RSG), Vulcan Materials (VMC) | Overnight: Nikkei -0.42%, Shanghai Closed (Lunar New Year), FTSE 100 +0.13%, DAX +0.09% |
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| | | | Palo Alto tonight is the first live test of the AI split. Does cybersecurity earn an exemption, or does the software discount catch everything? | Walmart Thursday is the second test. Is the trillion-dollar staple a hiding spot or the new leadership? | Between earnings, diplomacy, FOMC minutes under a Fed independence cloud, and PCE on Friday, this is the first real stress test of the AI split. If falling yields cannot rescue cyclicals and software cannot hold on strength, the market is not consolidating. It is reallocating. |
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