sport football: January 25th

The Week Ahead Of Us 🔍

Welcome back. Hope everyone impacted by this winter snow storm is staying safe.

SPY and Nasdaq futures are down -0.4% and -0.7% respectively as potential 100% tariffs on Canada floated over the weekend are spooking traders. The markets have been sluggish YTD due to geopolitical volatility and software softness. Silver and Gold have continued surging higher (Gold just hit $5,000 for the first time) while Crypto assets have struggled. We generally hold the belief that eventually, many software providers are going to lose their value prop due to internal software development. However, a recent investor call hosted by JP Morgan's internal IT team has caught investor interest and suggested that the current software selloff may be oversold. Ticketmaster's Global President was among the Execs who argued in favor of vibe-coding in house being overhyped, saying "As someone that manages a P&L with a large software cost line item, this take is right. It's foolish to think that I would spend any time saving a few bucks at the opportunity cost to the core business."

The Fed will be meeting this week, but they'll hold rates and it should be quite uneventful.

Here's a look at earnings this week.

Monday: Nucor, Ryanair, Steel Dynamics
Tuesday: UnitedHealth Group, Boeing Company, United Parcel Service, General Motors, Texas Instruments, Union Pacific, NextEra Energy, Kimberly-Clark, Sysco, American Airlines, Synchrony Financial
Wednesday: Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, IBM, GE Vernova, AT&T, Progressive, General Dynamics, Levi Strauss & Co, Whirlpool Corporation, ASML Holding, Lam Research Corporation
Thursday: Apple, Visa, Mastercard, Caterpillar, Thermo Fisher, Honeywell, Lockheed Martin, Comcast, Sherwin-Williams, Valero Energy, Nasdaq
Friday: Exxon Mobil, Chevron, American Express, Verizon, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Colgate, Charter Communications, LyondellBasell Industries NV

Here's a look at economic data this week (estimates are in quotations).

Monday: Durable-goods orders (4.5), Durable-goods minus transportation
Tuesday: Consumer confidence (90.0)
Wednesday: FOMC interest rate decision
Thursday: Initial jobless claims (209,000), U.S. trade deficit (-$45.1B), U.S. productivity (4.9%), Wholesale inventories (0.2%), Factory orders (1.1%)
Friday: Producer price index (0.3%), Core PPI, PPI y/y, Core PPI y/y, Chicago Business Barometer PMI (42.0),

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Earnings Corner 📈 📉

$INTC ( ▼ 17.03% ) fell despite a beat as soft guidance flagged ongoing supply constraints and uneven execution in its foundry turnaround. After a sharp pre-earnings rally, investors reset expectations, refocusing on the long timeline and profit drag from manufacturing.

$ABT ( ▼ 1.1% ) missed revenue as Nutrition declined on pricing pressure tied to the loss of a major WIC contract and consumer pushback, alongside weaker Diagnostics, even as Medical Devices held up on CGM strength. Near term guidance came in softer, keeping focus on when Nutrition stabilizes and whether medtech can continue to offset the drag

$PG ( ▲ 0.86% ) Missed on revenue but beat EPS as pricing and cost discipline offset weaker U.S. volumes, led by diapers and razors. Shares rose as management signaled the quarter marked the trough and reaffirmed confidence in a second half rebound.

$GE ( ▼ 0.38% ) Beat on revenue and EPS and guided above expectations as high margin aftermarket demand stayed strong and orders surged on tight aircraft supply. Shares fell as investors focused on slower 2026 growth and margin pressure from heavier R&D spending and a mix shift toward lower margin engine deliveries.

$COF ( ▼ 7.56% ) Beat as higher interest income and stable credit performance drove results. Shares fell after Brex acquisition raised concerns around cash usage and balance-sheet risk, especially with a proposed credit card rate cap looming.

$FCX ( ▲ 2.65% ) Beat on strong copper and gold prices and favorable shipment timing, offsetting lower volumes from the Grasberg disruption. Shares fell as investors focused on a back-half weighted recovery and execution risk around the Grasberg restart.

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Today's Headlines 🍿

Winter Storm Fern Latest: Much of the country is currently being hit by a massive winter storm, with some areas experiencing nearly two feet of snow and subzero temperatures. Hundreds of thousands have lost power, especially in the southern U.S, and 23 states have declared emergency conditions. The snow is expected to continue on Monday, followed by extremely low temperatures.
Trump escalates Canada trade threat: President Donald Trump threatened 100% tariffs on all Canadian goods if Canada "makes a deal with China," lashing out at Prime Minister Mark Carney after his Davos speech criticizing tariffs as economic coercion. This raises fresh risks for Canada-US trade ties ahead of a review of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in July.
House passes final funding bills ahead of shutdown deadline: The US House of Representatives approved the last major government funding package of roughly $1.2T covering Defense, DHS, HHS, Education, Transportation, and HUD to avert a January 30 partial shutdown. The bills now head to the US Senate, where approval remains uncertain before reaching Donald Trump's desk. Right now, Polymarket is pricing in a 80% chance of a Government shutdown by January 31.
LMEs relapse into distress: New academic research finds that 80%+ of liability management exercises (LMEs) default within three years, with many ending up in Chapter 11 anyway. The study raises red flags around creditor-on-creditor deals prevalent with PE-backed firms, spotlighting Saks Global as a recent example where a $600M LME preceded bankruptcy just months later, often leaving creditors worse off than a traditional filing.

In Other News 📖 🍿

Yen intervention fears rise: Markets are on high alert after Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi warned against "abnormal" FX moves, with reports that the New York Fed conducted rare yen rate checks, fueling speculation of coordinated Japan-US intervention.
A BlackRock private debt fund expects to mark down the net value of its assets by 19% to between $7.05 and $7.09 a share, down from $8.71 as of September 30th. The fund has struggled due to its high exposure to e-commerce aggregators and bankrupt home improvement company Renovo Home Partners.
Data software giant Databricks raised $1.8B in new financing, expanding its delayed-draw term loan and revolver and lifting total debt to $7.05B just weeks after a $134B valuation funding round. Pricing is S+450 and JPM led the deal.
Amazon is preparing to cut thousands more corporate employees as early as next week, extending a cost-cutting push that already eliminated 14,00 roles and targets management layers.
OpenAI explores value-sharing model: OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar said the company is exploring profit-sharing and IP licensing agreements for large enterprise clients, starting with areas like drug discovery.
Vimeo laid off a large portion of the company, including the entire video staff, months after being acquired by PE firm Bending Spoons for $1.4B.
AMC notes dropped over 5 cents on the dollar Friday to 98.5 cents as bondholders hold private discussions with the company, creating unease amongst investors about how the theater chain will manage its debt burden.
Citigroup and Bank of America are working on 10% rate credit cards after Trump said he would ask Congress to approve a 10% interest rate cap for one year.
Trump filed a $5B lawsuit against JPMorgan and Jamie Dimon, claiming that the bank improperly closed his accounts for political reasons following the January 6th riots.
Smart ring maker Oura is working on a tender offer, with plans to give shareholders a chance to sell shares at a 25% discount to its Series E round last fall, allowing the company to remain private for longer.
IPO Latest: Construction-tech company EquipmentShare raised $747M in its Nasdaq IPO, pricing 30.5M shares at $24.50 to value the company at $6.2B. Meanwhile, Singapore-based data center operator DayOne Data Center Ltd. is looking at a US IPO at up to $20B valuation, roughly double its recent $10B private mark.

M&A Transactions💭

TikTok USDS Joint Venture, operator of video sharing application with operations based in the United States, was finally officially acquired for $11.4B by Oracle, Susquehanna International Group, Alpha Wave Global, Revolution Capital Group, Dragoneer Investment Group, and Others.

Medical Manufacturing Technologies, manufacturing equipment and precision tools, was acquired for $685.0M by Perimeter Solutions (NYS: PRM). EV/EBITDA was 13.7x and EV/Revenue was 4.89x. Houlihan Lokey and William Blair & Company advised on the sale.

Sumitomo Bakelite (TKS: 4203) reached a definitive agreement to acquire The Chemical Business of Kyocera (TKS: 6971).

Kitwave Group (LON: KITW), an independent, delivered wholesale business, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for GBP 251.0M by Kite UK Bidco. EV/EBITDA was 5.11x and EV/Revenue was 0.32x. Canaccord Genuity advised on the sale.

Ferrovie Dello Stato Italiane reached a definitive agreement to acquire The Railway Business Unit of Impresa Pizzarotti for EUR 180.0M.

Iderdrola Renovables Magyarorszag, provider of renewable energy and wind power generation services, was acquired for EUR 171.0M by Premier Energy (BSE: PE).

Harper Engineering Co., manufacturer of aerospace components, was acquired for $250.0M by Loar Holdings (NYS: LOAR).

GOJO Industries, manufacturer of skin health and hygiene products, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $2.25B by The Clorox Company (NYS: CLX). EV/Revenue was 2.81x. Harris Williams advised on the sale.

Brex, developer of expense management software, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $5.15B by Capital One Financial (NYS: COF). EV/Revenue was 7.36x. Centerview Partners advised on the sale.

Towerlink France, operator of data centers, was acquired for EUR 391.0M by Cellnex France.

Equinox Gold, operator of gold mines, was acquired for $1.015B by CMOC China (HKG: 03993). BMO Capital Markets advised on the sale.

Astria Therapeutics, a biopharmaceutical company, was acquired for $733.645M by BioCryst Pharmaceuticals (NAS: BCRX). Evercore Group advised on the sale.

ACSM Shipping Co, operator of marine and subsea services, was acquired for EUR 169.0M by Prysmain (MIL: PRY).

Private Placement Transactions💭

Oviva, developer of a nutritional advice platform, raised EUR 220.0M of venture funding led by Kinnevik.

Neurophos, manufacturer of an optical processor, raised $110.0M through a combination of Series A and A1 venture funding led by Gates Frontier.

Mews, developer of a property management platform, raised $300.0M of Series D venture funding led by EQT a pre-money valuation of $2.2B.

LiveKit, developer of an open-source, real-time communications platform, raised $100.0M of Series C venture funding led by Index Ventures.

D-Orbit, provider of space logistics, raised EUR 128.0M of Series D venture funding from Corporation Family Office SIM and other undisclosed investors.

CORXEL Pharmaceuticals, developer of small molecule cardiac myosin inhibitor drug treatment, raised $287.0M of Series D+ venture funding from Symbiosis, Hengdian Group Capital, and The Invus Group.

Claroty, developer of a cybersecurity platform, raised $150.0M of Series F venture funding led by Golub Growth at a pre-money valuation of $2.85B.

ASF Insignia, operator of a leading real estate company, raised INR 12.5B of venture funding from Alpha Alternatives.

Juspay, developer of a payment infrastructure, raised $110.0M of Series D venture funding led by Kedaara Capital and WestBridge Capital.

Clush, operator of a cloud-native technology company, raised JPY 38.0B of venture funding led by AON Investment.

Odds of the Day 🍒

Polymarket traders are pricing in a 80% chance of another government shutdown

Meme Cleanser 😆

Until next time!

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