Selasa, 27 Januari 2026

How to Trade SpaceX Before It Goes Public

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How to Trade SpaceX Without Trading SpaceX

One of the best ways to invest in a high-profile IPO is often by not investing in the IPO directly.

That may sound backward, but IPO investing can be a true coin flip. Sometimes a newly public stock explodes higher and never looks back. Other times the hype fades, lockups expire, early holders sell, and the stock spends months (or years) repairing technical damage.

The bigger the headline, the more dangerous the first-day "FOMO" can be. Early pricing frequently reflects peak enthusiasm, not peak value.

That's why, when the market starts buzzing about a possible SpaceX IPO, many investors immediately ask the same question: How do I get exposure without taking unnecessary day-one risk?


The SpaceX IPO rumor mill is heating up again

Recent reporting has indicated SpaceX is exploring a blockbuster IPO in 2026, with Reuters reporting the company could seek to raise more than $25 billion and potentially carry a valuation above $1 trillion.

Separately, the Financial Times and other outlets have reported that SpaceX has been in discussions with major Wall Street banks about a potential listing.

To be clear: none of this makes an IPO "certain." Timing, structure, and valuation can all change. But the headlines alone are enough to do two things:

  1. Pull investor attention toward the broader IPO ecosystem, and

  2. Set up a potential "IPO cycle" trade if new listings accelerate.

So if you want to position for a SpaceX-style mega-IPO without betting your portfolio on a single stock debut, there are two practical approaches: own the IPO pipeline through ETFs.


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Option #1:
ETF: First Trust US Equity Opportunities ETF (SYM: FPX)

FPX is one of the most established "IPO basket" ETFs. It's designed to give investors exposure to a systematic portfolio of newly public U.S. stocks—without needing to pick which IPO will be a winner.

How FPX works
FPX seeks investment results that correspond to the IPOX®-100 U.S. Index and typically invests at least 90% of net assets in the stocks that make up the index. In short, it's a rules-based way to own newly public companies during the period when IPO excitement and institutional repositioning can be most active.

Cost
FPX's expense ratio is widely listed at 0.61%.

Current price context
As of today (January 26, 2026), FPX is trading around $166.

Why FPX can be a "SpaceX without SpaceX" strategy

FPX does not currently own SpaceX (SpaceX is private). But if SpaceX does go public (and if it meets index eligibility rules (U.S.-listed, sufficient liquidity/float, etc.)) a newly public SpaceX could potentially be included in the IPO-focused index universe that FPX tracks.

That "if" matters. Index inclusion is not guaranteed. But from a portfolio construction standpoint, FPX offers something useful either way:

  • If SpaceX lists and becomes eligible, you may get indirect exposure.

  • If SpaceX does not list, you still own a diversified portfolio tied to IPO market momentum.

What to watch (risks and tradeoffs)

IPO baskets can be volatile. They tend to perform best when:

  • risk appetite is rising,

  • liquidity is improving, and

  • new issuance is strong.

They tend to struggle when:

  • rates rise sharply,

  • growth multiples compress, or

  • IPO volume dries up.

Bottom line: FPX is best viewed as a tactical way to play the IPO cycle.


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Option #2:
ETF: Renaissance IPO ETF (SYM: IPO)

If you want a second ETF option with a clear rules-based structure around newly public companies, the Renaissance IPO ETF (IPO) is built for that purpose.

How IPO works
Renaissance describes IPO as providing exposure to the largest, most liquid U.S.-listed newly public companies in one security, aiming to reduce single-stock risk while avoiding overlap with major core indices.

A key feature: the ETF is rebalanced quarterly as new IPOs come in, and older constituents typically cycle out three years after their IPO. That structure is important because it keeps the portfolio focused on the "newly public" window rather than turning into just another generic growth fund.

Cost
Renaissance lists the expense ratio at 0.60%.

Current price context
As of today (January 26, 2026), IPO is trading around $47.83.

Why IPO can fit alongside FPX

FPX and IPO are both "IPO exposure," but they are not identical:

  • Different indexes and inclusion rules can lead to different holdings and performance profiles.

  • In some market environments, one may outperform the other depending on how it weights and rotates constituents.

If you want to keep it simple, you can pick one. If you want to diversify within the "IPO theme," a split allocation can reduce fund-specific tracking and methodology risk.

Why this approach can be smarter than buying a hyped IPO

High-profile IPOs often come with the same predictable challenges:

  1. Pricing risk: IPO prices and early trading can reflect maximum optimism.

  2. Volatility risk: first weeks can be chaotic, with wide spreads and headline swings.

  3. Lockup and supply risk: additional shares often hit the market later, changing supply/demand.

  4. Narrative risk: "vision" can outrun fundamentals—especially in megadeals.

By using IPO-focused ETFs, you can participate in the broader listing cycle while avoiding the all-or-nothing gamble of a single debut.

And with SpaceX specifically, the uncertainty is real. Even though reporting has suggested a potential 2026 IPO raising more than $25 billion, plans can shift with market conditions, regulatory posture, and internal strategic priorities.


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Disclaimer: Results are not typical and will vary from person to person. Making money trading stocks and options takes time, timing, proper execution, dedication, and hard work. There are inherent risks involved with investing in the stock market, including the loss of your investment. Past performance in the market is not indicative of future results. Any investment is at your own risk.


Are there any other IPOs you're looking forward to this year? What other sectors of the market are you currently interested in? Hit "reply" to this email and let us know your thoughts!

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