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The Week Ahead Of Us 🔍 |
Welcome back! |
After a nice relief rally on Friday due to the avoidance of a government shutdown, US futures are back in the red, with S&P futures currently down -0.6% and Nasdaq futures currently down -0.77% respectively. We expect a lot of volatility as we continue to march to the April 2nd tariff implementation dates. |
Here's a look at earnings this week. |
Monday: Polestar Wednesday: General Mills Thursday: Accenture, PDD Holdings, Micron Technology, Nike, FedEx, Lennar, Academy Sports Friday: Carnival
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Here's a look at economic data this week. |
Monday: U.S. retail sales (0.6%) Wednesday: FOMC interest-rate decision Thursday: Initial jobless claims (222K), Existing home sales (3.97MM), U.S. leading economic indicators (-0.2%)
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Earnings Corner 📜 |
Trending Up 📈 |
Ulta Beauty (ULTA): The beauty chain beat on revenue and earnings, but guidance was weak due to low consumer confidence. In January, the company announced its CEO's resignation and replacement by the COO, Kecia Steelman, who had been with the company for over 10 years. Steelman seeks to make "guest-facing investments" and correct key missteps in online shopping and pickup that have hurt market share. For 2025, mgmt. expects sales to remain flat or grow 1% (vs. 1.2% estimated), while FY EPS is projected at $22.50-$22.90 (vs. $23.47 estimated). The stock was up 13.7% |
Docusign (DOCU): Docusign beat on revenue and profit, thanks partially to the company's new AI-enabled content. Revenue of $776MM was up 9% y/y (vs. $761MM expected) and EPS was $0.86 (vs. $0.85 expected). Mgmt. noted: "We've really stabilized, and I think started to turn the corner on the core business... We've become much more efficient." The firm also announced a partnership with Microsoft and Google and, despite poor general consumer sentiment, does not expect a slowdown in sales. The stock was up 14.8% |
Quantum Computing Stocks: D-Wave Quantum reported quarterly results that beat estimates, earning the quantum computing company endorsements from numerous analysts. The news carried D-Wave stock 46.9% and also boosted competing firms. Rigetti Computing was up 28.2%, IonQ was up 17%, and Quantum Computing Inc. was up 29.1% |
Dollar General (DG): An extensive store review and 141 location closures cut into the budget retailer's profits, despite a slight revenue beat. Mgmt. noted that consumers can only afford basic essentials but released a 2025 revenue outlook slightly above analysts' expectations. The stock was up 5.6% |
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Today's Headlines 🍿 |
Consumer Confidence Concerns: U.S. consumer sentiment hit a 2.5 year low to 57.9 amid tariff worries. As you'll see though, consumer sentiment varies significantly by party affiliation. As we've called out though, the uncertain business planning experiment is impacting the C-Suite; and consumers are noticing. A record high share of consumers believe business conditions are worsening. In addition, consumers are also increasingly worried about losing their jobs. While this tariff uncertainty is a unique situation, this pattern aligns with prior downturns. Scott Bessent calls the stock market pullback healthy. The Treasury Secretary said today that he was "not at all worried" about the downturn. Bessent cited that he wished there was a pullback in 2006, for example, and it's not healthy when stocks are always going straight up M&A Standstill: The New York Post is reporting that nearly all dealmaking is stalled due to tariffs, some bankers on X disputed this, but this captures the uncertainty in the current environment:
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 | Charles Gasparino @CGasparino |  |
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Breaking: I am told all dealmaking — I mean nearly all IPOs and M&A - has been stalled amid the tariff tantrum. Story developing | | | 12:48 AM • Mar 14, 2025 | | | | | | 3.2K Likes 342 Retweets | 219 Replies |
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Speaking of which, Klarna is preparing to go public: The Buy Now Pay Later firm which has notably embraced AI is gearing up for an IPO. The Stockholm founded company saw 2024 revenue rise by 24% YoY to $2.8B and is targeting a valuation of more than $15B. Impressively, U.S. credit losses of 1.2% are down from 9.6% in 2019 Compass is in talks to acquire Berkshire Hathaway's Real Estate Brokerage business, HomeServices of America. Is Warren (who has $325B in cash) telling us something by engaging in a rare private asset sale? Oracle is the top contender to acquire TikTok. After the site briefly went offline, Trump issued an executive order delaying the Congressional ban by 75 days. Larry Ellison's company is apparently the current leading buyer Almond moms and RFK scare Big Food. At a recent federal health round table, Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy met with food executives and mothers who have backed his Make America Healthy Again agenda. Food companies are concerned about how MAHA efforts including the elimination of synthetic dies could cut into their margins Comvest Partners is in talks for a partial asset sale: The $15B alternative asset manager is exploring selling a stake that could produce a $700mm valuation. Affiliated Managers Group may also sell its minority share in the firm Apollo and Citi team up for a Boeing Unit sale: Citi's and Apollo's private credit collab is considering providing buyers of Boeing's Jeppesen navigation unit $3-3.5B in direct financing. The Unit is estimated to be worth around $7B Apollo and State Street's Private Credit ETF hasn't been going well so far. Since launching on February 27, PRIV has posted only two days of net inflows totaling $5mm. Unfortunately for the asset manager partners, the launch came amidst a widespread retreat from riskier assets Pepsi is in talks to acquire Poppi for $1.5B. The "functional soda" brand has boomed alongside the rest of its category, with functional beverage sales up more than 60% last year. Poppi first made headlines when it earned a Shark Tank investment in 2018 F1 Bets on Brad Pitt. Liberty Media, the parent of Formula 1, is hoping that a new film starring Pitt will boost the brand's American appeal. After the success of Netflix's Drive to Survive, Liberty is looking to land a more lucrative US broadcast deal Manhattan rent is continuing to blow through record levels, with the median rent in Manhattan hitting $4.5k/month, up 6.4% YoY. Increasingly, tenants are finding themselves caught in bidding wars as economic uncertainty scare potential home buyers and more workers face back-to-office mandates Art lenders issue margin calls as painting prices fall: The $40B art market has seen margin calls as valuations fall, with borrowers having to hand over cash or swap in more expensive artworks. Sotheby's and Christie's are leading lenders with art books of $1.6B and $600mm respectively DEI gets dropped. Hundreds of US companies have eliminated references to "diversity, equity, and inclusion" in their annual reports. After the White House put a bullseye on these programs, there's has also been a massive pullback in hiring for DEI related roles
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M&A Transactions💭 |
The Ethniki, Hellenic General Insurance Company, provider of insurance services, reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $600.0M by Piraeus Bank. UBS Group advised on the sale. |
Shiftee, developer of a workforce scheduling software platform, was acquired for $280.0M by Skylake Equity Partners. The transaction values the company at estimated $373.33M. |
Rockland Capital reached a definitive agreement to sell a 738 megawatt of natural gas-fired capacity to NRG Energy for $560.0M. |
Parker Wellbore, is a provider of contact drilling, was acquired for $1.271B by Nabors Industries (NYS: NBR). Moelis & Company advised on the sale. |
Laurent, producer of artisan bakery products, was acquired for $409.95M by Bridor. |
Bistro Software, a portfolio visualization software, entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired for $125.0M by Clearwater Analytics Holdings (NYS: CWAN). |
Beacon, developer of a cloud-native platform, was acquired for $560.0M by Clearwater Analytics Holdings (NYS: CWAN). EV/Revenue was 12.73x. |
Registered Agent Solutions, provider of legal services, was acquired for $415.0M by Wolters Kluwer (AMS: WKL). EV/Revenue was 7.98x. Apax Partners advised on the sale. |
Radius Recycling (NAS: RDUS), a North American based company which is involved in recycling of ferrous and nonferrous metal, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $1.34B by Toyota Tsusho America. EV/Revenue was 0.49x. |
Clanwilliam Group, developer of healthcare software, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired for $450.0M by TA Associates Management. |
Admincontrol, developer of cloud-based software, reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $420.18M by Euronext (PAR: ENX). EV/EBITDA 22.65x and EV/Revenue was 10.02x. |
Softchoice (TSE: SFTC), a technology service and solution provider, was acquired for $1.14B by World Wide Technology. EV/EBITDA was 26.31x and EV/Revenue was 2.88x. Origin Merchant Partners, RBC Capital Markets, and TD Securities advised on the sale. |
Private Placement Transactions💭 |
Binance, developer of a blockchain based digital asset, raised $2.0B of venture funding from MGX. |
Supabase, developer of a database management system, raised $100.0M of venture funding led by Accel at a post-valuation of $2.0B. |
Rapyd Financial Network, developer of digital fintech-as-a-service platform, raised $500.0M of venture funding through a combination of equity and debt putting the company's post-valuation at an estimated $4.5B. |
Flock Safety, developer of a camera technology, raised $275.0M of venture funding led by Andreessen Horowitz at a pre-money valuation of $7.25B. |
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Odds of the Day 🍒 |
Kalshi traders are pricing in a 71% chance of Nike bringing up Consumer Demand on their earnings call. |
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Noteworthy Chart 🧭 |
With Europe in focus, here's a look at the most valuable European companies: |
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Meme Cleanser 😆 |
 | Brandon Beylo @marketplunger1 | |
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Me listening to the earnings call of a company I own 2 shares in. | |  | | | 4:31 PM • Mar 16, 2025 | | | | | | 2.26K Likes 100 Retweets | 21 Replies |
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 | Finance Guy @GuyInFinance | |
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The look my senior associate gives me when I ask him a question I've already asked | |  | | | 2:03 PM • Mar 15, 2025 | | | | | | 4 Likes 0 Retweets | 0 Replies |
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Finance Merch Referrals ☕️ |
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Until next time! |
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