The Great AI Resource Wars
(Are Underway)Swan Dive — April 16, 2026  At Semafor’s World Economy gathering in Washington on Tuesday, Patrick Pouyanné, Chairman and CEO of TotalEnergies, leaned forward and chose his words carefully.
“Disruptions,” he said, could last “years.” Any agreement, he implied, that leaves Hormuz unstable would fail before the ink dried.
In 1973, a 4% reduction in global oil supply rearranged the geopolitical alliances and the monetary system supporting the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency.
Today, the reduction in oil is closer to 20%. It’s not outrageous to expect a similar global shift in politics and energy dominance.
If President Trump gets his way, it’ll be rapid and lasting with the United States at the center of the emergent global AI economy for the next 50 years. ⚓ U.S. Warships Enforce Iranian Port BlockadeIn the White House briefing room, U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff commander Dan “Razin’” Caine provided some of this morning’s details regarding Pouyanné’s disruption:
More than 10,000 U.S. personnel—sailors on destroyers, Marines on amphibious decks, airmen rotating through forward bases—are now enforcing a maritime blockade around Iranian ports, backed by over a dozen warships and dozens of aircraft under U.S. Central Command.
In the first 72 hours alone, CENTCOM reported that 14 vessels approaching Iranian terminals turned around rather than test the perimeter. The operation, launched February 28 under “Operation Epic Fury,” is now sitting in a tense pause: a ceasefire on paper, a blockade still very much in force.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth put it plainly, warning Iran’s new leadership to “choose wisely,” while noting that U.S. forces are “reloading with more power than ever before.”
From the region, CENTCOM commander Brad Cooper has been moving between partner capitals and troop positions, reporting high morale and maintaining what he called an “ironclad blockade.”
Behind the scenes, U.S. officials say the pressure is working — Tehran, facing a closed set of ports and a shrinking ability to move goods, has become more open to talks, even as both sides circle the possibility of another round of negotiations. 🛢️ Strait of Hormuz Oil Flows Fall to 7 Million BarrelsSix weeks into the Iran conflict, flows through the Strait of Hormuz have dropped from roughly 15 million barrels per day to about 7 million. Tankers that once moved on fixed schedules now idle, reroute, or wait for escort.
Across Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait, production losses total roughly 11 million barrels per day. Refiners across the Gulf have cut another 3 million barrels per day of runs.
Saudi engineers are pushing crude westward through the East–West pipeline to Yanbu, at a rate close to 4.5 million barrels per day.
In Fujairah, operators continue loading about 1.5 million barrels per day onto tankers. Iranian cargoes still move, quietly, at roughly the same level.
Iraq’s exports have fallen from about 4 million barrels per day to under 1 million. A pipeline to Turkey carries a fraction of what once moved through open water. 
In addition to the disruption from the overt blockade of Iranian ports by the US Navy, there has been a rising set of mysterious catastrophes at energy production facilities around the globe outside of the Middle East. (Source: Financealot on X) On trading desks in Geneva and Singapore, cargoes are being priced against “arrival probability.”
Brent trades near $120–$130. Models circulating among traders place $160–$170 as the range where demand begins to fall enough to meet supply.
Further out, contracts for late 2026 sit near $70–$80. 🚢 Saudi Oil Shipments to Europe IncreaseIn a refinery control room near Rotterdam, operators are adjusting blends to handle heavier Saudi crude, replacing Iraqi Basra shipments. The flows have changed direction. The chemistry inside the plant has changed with it.
Saudi shipments into Europe through Yanbu and Mediterranean ports have reached the highest levels in two years.
U.S. crude exports are rising toward record levels as cargoes leave the Gulf Coast for Europe and Asia.
Russian barrels continue to move at higher prices. The revenue shows up in Moscow’s budget.
Indian refiners are buying roughly 2 million barrels per day from Russia while adding cargoes from West Africa and Latin America. Product exports from India have slipped from about 1.3 million barrels per day to roughly 1 million.
China entered the disruption with about 1.2 billion barrels of crude in storage. In Shandong, independent refiners are running margins so thin they're noticeable. State refiners continue operating, drawing from reserves. 🏗️ U.S. Infrastructure Investment Targets $10 TrillionInside a conference room in Washington during a BlackRock workshop alongside the SEMAFOR World Economy confab, CEO Larry Fink put a number on the board: $10 trillion.
That’s the estimated cost of rebuilding and expanding U.S. infrastructure by 2033. The discussion moved quickly from roads and bridges to substations, transmission lines, and data centers.
OpenAI’s Sam Altman described AI systems as “capacity constrained,” pointing to power supply and physical buildouts as limiting factors.
And Energy Secretary Chris Wright spoke about electricity generation that has stayed flat while demand is rising. Data centers are now among the largest new sources of grid load.
Across the table, labor leaders chimed in… outlining the constraint in practical terms. Sean McGarvey said existing training programs already support more than 300,000 apprentices. Expanding that pipeline requires time, instructors, and visibility into projects.
Outside the room, it’s a sight to behold. Utilities are filing plans for new generation and transmission projects. Timelines have stretched into years. Energy independence… dominance… security are all lining up to Continued Below...
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⚡ China Wind Project in Egypt AdvancesMeanwhile, three hours south of Cairo, near Ras Ghareb, Mohamed Ismail Mansour stood on a patch of desert marked by stakes and survey lines. The site holds a few trailers, a concrete mixer, and a view of the Gulf of Suez.
Within a year, it is scheduled to produce 200 megawatts of power.
Mansour’s company, Infinity Power, evaluated bids from European and Chinese suppliers. European quotes ranged from $980,000 to $1.2 million per megawatt. China’s Goldwind came in below $800,000.
“The quality is great, the service is good,” Mansour said in an interview reported by Semafor’s Tim McDonnell. “It’s a no-brainer.”
Egypt generates about 75% of its electricity from natural gas. After regional disruptions, LNG import costs doubled between January and March.
In Cairo, restaurants now close at 9 p.m. as part of electricity rationing. Police move through neighborhoods to enforce the schedule.
China supplies turbines, engineering teams, and project execution. It produces more than 70% of global clean energy hardware.
Ilaria Mazzocco noted at Semafor World Economy that this kind of supply chain dominance introduces a form of leverage different from oil. 📊 Strategic Petroleum Reserves Draw DownAlso meeting in Washington this week, officials from the International Energy Agency (IEA) are drawing up plans to use strategic petroleum reserves to offset supply losses being suffered during the Iran conflict.
Refill plans for those reserves are already being written into the 2026 national budgets of all 32 nations of the agency – including the United States, Canada, Japan, and most of Western Europe; all members of the OECD and commit to shared energy security goals.
Import-dependent economies are operating with roughly 20–40 days of fuel inventory. Procurement teams are securing cargoes based on availability rather than price timing – even from the U.S. 
Oil exports from the U.S. are surging amid the cutoff from the Strait of Hormuz, but U.S. production isn’t enough to meet the shortfall in global demand. (Source: Bloomberg) In Frankfurt, Frank Elderson wrote in the Financial Times that Europe’s dependence on imported fossil fuels continues to transfer large amounts of capital abroad during each price spike.
Grid expansion, fuel storage, and shipping security are being combined into a single set of planning documents. Industrial output naturally follows access to fuel and electricity. 💻 Company Rebrands as AI Infrastructure FirmThe opening salvos and combat sorties in Iran on February 28, 2026, kicked off the most dramatic realignment of energy and resources since the oil shocks of the early 1970s.
“What’s all the fuss about?” you may be tempted to ask.
We hope it’s not as simple-minded as this anecdote from a trading screen in a small office in New York City:
Allbird stock, $BIRD, a footwear company, was down 99% from its record high as of yesterday. The shoe company was collapsing. Then the firm announced it would sell its existing business and rebrand as an AI infrastructure firm.
The plan includes a $50 million convertible facility to acquire GPU assets. The stock popped… and rose as much as 875% intraday.
We’ve been waiting for moribund companies to start reinventing themselves as AI pioneers. (Source: The Kobeissi Letter) In 1999, we were front and center for a slew of dotcom darling stories; similar dramatic rags to riches fables when companies added “.com” to their names.
A study published years later by Purdue University researchers, cited in The Atlantic, found average gains of roughly 74% around those announcements. Companies like Pets.com and Webvan raised gads of capital before collapsing when revenues failed to follow. We recall Krispy Kreme, a sickly sweet donut purveyor, getting in on the action, too.
In Corning’s case, the demand was real. The old-school maker of pink fiberglass housing insulation slapped a .com on their name, set up a website, and rebranded themselves as the go-to source for fiber-optic cable.
Orders surged as telecom firms built out networks. When that demand collapsed, the stock fell from over $100 to near $1 within two years.
“Does anyone remember Dec 21, 2017,” asks our friend Jim Bianco on X this morning, “when Long Island Iced Tea rebranded as Long Blockchain? It was up 183% that day. It was less than a week after bitcoin's price peaked, which then fell 80% over the next year.”
Today’s AI buildout includes its own fictions – new applications for data centers, even more fiber networks, and power supply contracts tied to AI systems. It’s a good market to find real stock gems. But you can lose your shirt, too. Keep reading below.
~ Addison
P.S. We saw a similar trading setup to today’s whacky market – select new highs on light volume – leading up to the dotcom bubble’s peak in late 1999 and early 2000.
Our curiosity piqued, we put a team of researchers on task. And now we’re ready to release their findings. Behold: The Shadow Stock report. 
This week on Grey Swan Live! we’re showcasing our latest research on Shadow Stocks – volatile stocks that move rapidly up and down beneath the surface of the calm indexes.
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To kick it off, we’re going to give you three stocks free of charge. Gratis. On the house. The research is excellent, and the upgraded Grey Swan Pro will be worth your time to consider. Take a look here.
How did we get here? Find out in these riveting reads: Demise of the Dollar, Financial Reckoning Day, and Empire of Debt — all three books are now available in their third post-pandemic editions. You might enjoy one or all three. 
(Or… simply pre-order Empire of Debt: We Came, We Saw, We Borrowed, now available at Amazon and Barnes & Noble or if you prefer one of these sites: Bookshop.org, Books-A-Million or Target.)
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