Positioned before the reversal. ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏

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Don here...
Mac Holbrook, our newest trader, isn’t shy. He’s been calling this low for weeks.
To be fair, he got stopped out twice in March on early entries.
However, the third attempt stuck. His iron condor with strikes in the low to mid-5,000 range on ES futures is now sitting on a 7.78% move from low tick to high tick in eight days.
Then he bought Lockheed Martin live on the session. Seven shares at $626.59. Price told him to buy it. The narrative said otherwise.
In today's Live Trading Room session replay, you'll see:
- The exact iron condor structure Mac built around the March 30 low. April 10th and April 17th expirations. 50-point spreads entered at roughly $4.50. Out-of-the-money puts designed to hedge if the low failed. He walks through how he scaled into the position and managed delta and theta daily.
- Why the anchored VWAP off the all-time high is the single most important level right now. The S&P closed above it today. Mac showed how this same VWAP defended lows in August 2024, April 2024, and October 2023. When it holds, the trend resumes.
- The Lockheed Martin entry and the logic behind it. Lockheed gapped down on trade resolution headlines and spent the entire day recovering. It defended 2026 VWAP and showed relative strength while the rest of the market celebrated. Mac calculated his risk at $200 using the session low at $593.88 as his stop.
- Why Mac is watching Tesla at 2025 VWAP but refused to enter today. Tesla gapped up with everything else and rejected all day. A close above 366 would be his first bullish signal. Above 380 is the green light. Below that, he sees a path to 317 or even sub-300.
Mac made his thesis clear. He holds positions for one to two months and targets 8% to 12% moves.
Reward-to-risk matters more than win percentage. He manages position sizing as signals give him more or less confidence in the thesis.
The S&P is now at the top of the weekly expected move and right at 2026 VWAP. Mac expects consolidation or a pullback over the next few days.
If the indices pull back to the 200-day moving average around 6,650 to 6,700, he will add aggressively to bullish positions.
→ Watch Mac walk through every position, every entry, and the exact VWAP levels he's trading against for the next two months
To your success,
Don Kaufman Chief Market Strategist, TheoTRADE
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