What Changed? | For most of the pandemic era, student loans were the rare bill that simply didn't show up in monthly cash-flow math. That "free" liquidity quietly supported discretionary spending, even as inflation squeezed essentials. | Now the bill is back in full—and the data is catching up. Federal payments restarted in late 2023, but the real economic signal arrived after the credit-reporting "on-ramp" ended in late 2024. As delinquencies began to hit credit files in early 2025, the repayment restart stopped being a policy headline and started showing up as a measurable drag on households that sit in the middle of the consumption stack. | | Investors Are Following Washington's $7B Play | | America is dedicating $7B to boost the domestic supply of precious metals. The real winner? A US startup preparing for commercial lithium production right now, and investors are taking advantage. | EnergyX has been at the forefront of the $546B energy storage market for years, with patented tech that can recover up to 3X more lithium than conventional methods. | Backed by General Motors, POSCO, and Eni, they control approximately 150,000 acres of prime lithium territory across Chile and the US. | In fact, a recent independent study projected its flagship Chilean project alone could generate $1.1B annually once fully operational, at projected market prices. No wonder over 40,000+ people have already invested. | Learn how you can join them today. | *Disclaimer: This is a paid advertisement for EnergyX's Regulation A+ Offering. Please read the offering circular at invest.energyx.com. Under Regulation A+, a company has the ability to change its share price by up to 20%, without requalifying the offering with the SEC. | | The Numbers | Student loan balances were about $1.63T as of 2025 Q1, per the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Reported student-loan delinquencies jumped as missed payments began appearing again on credit reports; 90+ day delinquency was 7.74% in 2025 Q1, and remained elevated later in 2025. A January 2026 brief from the Urban Institute finds repayment progress is weaker than pre-pandemic, with balances paying down more slowly and delinquencies back around pre-pandemic levels—with risk of further deterioration. Survey work from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau around the restart period highlights widespread repayment difficulty and servicing frictions, which matters because "ability to pay" is not the same as "willingness to spend." Meanwhile, total consumer spending continues to grow month to month in the aggregate (PCE rose in November 2025), which implies the student-loan hit is more about composition than collapse.
| | Why It Matters | This is a targeted cash-flow shock. Student loan borrowers skew younger, prime working-age, and often sit in the middle-income bands that drive "nice-to-have" demand. When a fixed monthly payment returns, households typically don't cut everything evenly. They triage. | For markets, the key point is not "the consumer is breaking." It's that the consumer is rotating. Aggregate spending can hold up even as the middle consumer quietly reallocates away from the categories that depend most on discretionary churn. | | Will Your Retirement Income Last? | | A successful retirement can depend on having a clear plan. Fisher Investments' The Definitive Guide to Retirement Income can help you calculate your future costs and structure your portfolio to meet your needs. Get the insights you need to help build a durable income strategy for the long term. | Download Your Free Guide | Takeaway | The student-loan restart is not a single event—it's a slow-moving reset of household cash flow and credit visibility. The cleanest signal to watch is not headline consumption, but which parts of consumption stop getting "extra" support from the middle-income borrower. | — Lauren
Editor, American Ledger | Resources | Federal Reserve Bank of New York, May 2025
https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/research/2025/20250513 | Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Nov 2025
https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/interactives/householdcredit/data/pdf/HHDC_2025Q3 | Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, Nov 2024
https://www.consumerfinance.gov/data-research/research-reports/insights-from-the-2023-2024-student-loan-borrower-survey/ | Urban Institute, Jan 2026
https://www.urban.org/sites/default/files/2026-01/Final_Student_Loan_Repyament_Since_the_Payment_Restart.pdf | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Jan 2026
https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-october-and-november-2025 |
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