sport football: What You Need To Know For January 29th

Together with CreditSights

Welcome back!

Gold keeps ripping on the U.S. policy uncertainty, including the potential that the Fed gets quite dovish in a post Chair Powell world. The Fed did nothing with rates yesterday, and while the next Fed Chair is in flux, Blackrock's Rick Rieder is now the leading candidate for the job. We also had an insane amount of earnings yesterday. Tbh, I wasn't surprised by Microsoft getting beat up post-earnings but Meta getting a pass on the AI spend caught me off guard.

There's a lot going on, so let's get right into it.

Earnings Corner 📈 📉

$MSFT ( ▲ 0.22% ) Top and bottom line beat as AI could demand remained strong, with Azure growth holding near expectations. Cloud growth continued to moderate and heavy AI infrastructure spending raised concerns around margin pressure and payoff timing, sending shares down after hours. Management reiterated confidence in long term AI demand, but investors focused on near term capex and cloud weakness.

$META ( ▼ 0.63% ) Beat on revenue and earnings as advertising demand surprised to the upside, supported by AI-driven targeting and higher ad pricing. Management guided above expectations, signaling momentum into early 2026 and sending shares sharply higher after hours, even as investors saw plans for up to $135B in AI investment. Despite Zuckerberg going balls to the wall on AI spend, the nice uptick in top-line had shares trading up 6%+ after-hours.

$TSLA ( ▲ 0.13% ) Beat on revenue and earnings in the quarter, but posted its first annual revenue decline as vehicle deliveries fell and lower regulatory credit revenue. Management emphasized the long term AI and autonomy story, including a $2B investment in xAI, and how the future is focused on Robotaxi and robotics. Shares rose after hours as investors focused on future optionality over near term auto pressure.

$ASML ( ▼ 2.18% ) Surged on record bookings and stronger 2026 guidance, driven by AI infrastructure spending and renewed memory capex. Gains faded as investors questioned the durability of demand and focused on execution as volumes scale.

$UNH ( ▲ 4.0% ) Beat earnings but had soft revenue guidance tied to higher care utilization and planned membership cuts. Earlier this week, it was floated to '27 Medicare insurer payments would only be modestly rising.

$BA ( ▼ 1.21% ) Beat on revenue for the first time in 3+ years as an asset sale and higher aircraft deliveries drove results that continued to point towards a Boeing recovery.

$UPS ( ▼ 3.27% ) Results beat exceptions as pricing offset volume declines, prompting a major network overhaul. The company plans up to 30K job cuts and 24 site closures to reduce exposure to low-margin Amazon shipments.

$AAL ( ▼ 0.81% ) Missed earnings after the government shutdown and winter storms weighed on revenue, overshadowing optimism around 2026 recovery ties to premium demand. Meanwhile, $LUV ( ▼ 1.16% ) (Southwest Airlines) had a slight beat and came in with a FY guide that beat topped analyst estimates.

$GEV ( ▲ 2.73% ) Rose on AI driven power and electrification demand and higher guidance but gains were weighted down by bigger than expected offshore wind losses.

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Today's Headlines 🍿

Fed Meeting Recap: The Fed held rates steady today, as expected. There were only two dissents, with Fed governors Stephen Miran and Christopher Waller voting to cut by 25 bps. The FOMC noted in its statement that "economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace," while unemployment has begun to stabilize and inflation "remains somewhat elevated." Powell also made several comments related to Fed independence, stressing the importance of Fed governor Lisa Cook's legal battle and urging the next chair to "stay out of politics." With Powell down to only two more meetings before his term ends, the focus now shifts to who will be his replacement.
- Changes in the new Fed statement: The Fed struck a slightly more hawkish tone in its latest statement, upgrading growth to "solid" and removing language that pointed to rising labor-market risks, signaling less urgency to cut rates.
Amazon deepens corporate cuts: Amazon is laying off an additional 16,000 corporate employees to redirect capital toward AI and data center spending, following 14,000 cuts in October.
- Additionally, Home Depot has announced layoffs. The company is eliminating 800 jobs and making corporate employees return to the office five days per week. The layoffs are meant to boost the company's "speed and agility" and come during a period of weaker sales as demand for home building and improvement lags.

In Other News 📖 🍿

Yields for Japan's long-term government bonds skyrocketed after Prime Minister Takaichi proposed a consumption-tax waiver, signaling increased borrowing ahead.
Waymo pricing is only a slight premium to Uber pricing. New data found that the avg. Waymo in San Francisco costs $19.69, while Ubers cost $17.47.
SpaceX IPO takes shape: Elon Musk is targeting a mid-June SpaceX IPO, potentially timed with a rare planetary alignment and his birthday, aiming to raise up to $50B at a $1.5T valuation, which would make it the largest listing in history.
CVC acquires Marathon in a $1.2B deal, with $400mm coming in cash and $800mm in equity. There is also a $400mm performance-based earnout through 2029 (50% cash/50% equity). The acquisition expands CVC's presence in the U.S. credit markets and leaves Blackstone's GP Stakes group with a $400mm gain.
First Brands latest: The company has secured an emergency cash infusion from several of its biggest customers, led by Ford, GM, and Harley Davidson. The group has agreed to give First Brands $48mm to fund operations through January 30th, and will receive products crucial for their vehicles in return.
The Trump administration agreed to a $1.6B funding package with USA Rare Earth $USAR ( ▼ 4.44% ) , taking a 10% equity stake to bolster domestic rare earth and magnet supply chains as the U.S. looks to reduce reliance on China.
Clearlake owned Pretium Packaging reached a deal to restructure its debt, allowing the bottle and jar manufacturer to continue operating.
BlackRock cut 10 roles in its private financing solutions group as it integrates the $12B HPS deal, part of a broader ~250-person global workforce reduction.
Fidelity is launching the Fidelity Digital Dollar (FIDD), a dollar-pegged stablecoin issued by its OCC-approved digital assets bank
Orlando Bravo says the AI industry is in a bubble, and is critical of VC investors who "are taking enormous risks for small probabilities of enormous returns."
Carvana is being targeted by short seller Gotham City Research, causing shares to drop 14% following accusations that the company overstated its 2023-2024 earnings by more than $1B.
Corning struck a $6B deal with Meta, with the hyperscaler paying up to $6B for fiber-optic cable through 2030. Meta is planning for 30 data centers, including 26 within the U.S.
IPO Roundup:
- Jersey Mike's is working on an IPO with Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, and Jefferies. The sandwich chain is seeking a valuation of at least $12B and hopes to raise over $1B after being acquired early last year by Blackstone for ~$8B.
- York Space Systems raised $629mm in its U.S. IPO, selling 18.5 million shares for $34 each, the top of its marketed range. The IPO price gives the company a $4.3B market value.
- Once Upon a Farm, the Jennifer Garner backed children's organic food company, is targeting a $764mm IPO on February 6th.
- Bob's Discount Furniture is eyeing a $2.5B valuation, with a goal of raising $320mm to $370mm, in a U.S. IPO.
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M&A Transactions💭

TikTok Star Khaby Lame sells his company, Step Distinctive Limited, for $975.0M to Rich Sparkle.

The Chernin Group takes stake in 'The Rest Is' podcast firm Goalhanger.

Barloworld, an industrial processing, distribution, and services company, was acquired for SAR 23.0B by Zahid Tractor & Heavy Machinery. Clairfield International advised on the sale.

Skywater Technology (NAS: SKYT), a U.S. based, independent, pure-play technology foundry that offers semiconductor development and manufacturing services, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $1.8B by IonQ (NYS: IONQ). EV/EBITDA was 13.07x and EV/Revenue was 5.19x. Goldman Sachs advised on the sale.

Marathon Asset Management, provider of asset management services, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $1.2B by CVC Capital Partners (AMS: CVC).

Hecla Quebec, operator of gold mine and exploration projects and a subsidiary of Hecla Mining (NYS: HL), has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $593.0M by Orezone Gold (TSE: ORE). GenCap Mining Advisory advised on the sale.

Gold Resources (ASE: GORO), a producer of metal concentrates, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $372.0M by Goldgroup Mining (TSE: GGA). EV/Revenue was 6.06x. Fort Capital Partners and Cormark Securities advised on the sale.

ENTRUST Solutions Group, provider of consulting and engineering services, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $2.4B by Leidos Holdings (NYS: LDOS). Houlihan Lokey and Perella Weinberg Partners advised on the sale.

Bluejay Therapeutics, developer of therapeutic medicines, was acquired for $620.0M by Mirum Pharmaceuticals (NAS: MIRM). Centerview Partners and J.P. Morgan advised on the sale.

Allied Gold (TSE: AAUC), a company focused on gold mining activities in Africa, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $4.0B by Zijin Gold International (HKG: 02259). EV/EBITDA was 16.59x and EV/Revenue was 3.72x. Moelis & Company and Scotiabank advised on the sale.

Tecnotree (HEL: TEM1V), a supplier of telecom IT solutions, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired for EUR 131.0M by Fitzroy Investments, Helios Investment Partners, and Mr. Padma Ravichander. EV/EBITDA was 7.9x and EV/Revenue was 1.98x.

Prestige Insurance Holdings, provider of insurance brokerage and underwriting services, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for GBP 219.0M by AUB Group (ASX: AUB).

Plymouth Industrial REIT, a full-service, vertically integrated, self-administered, and self-managed Maryland corporation focused on the acquisition, ownership, and management of single and multi-tenant Class B industrial properties, was acquired for $2.1B by Makarora and Ares Management (NYS: ARES). EV/EBITDA was 9.8x and EV/Revenue was 10.97x. J.P. Morgan, KeyBanc Capital Markets, and Goldman Sachs advised on the sale.

Petersen Industries, manufacturer of truck-mounted grapple loader equipment, was acquired for $166.5M by Alamo Group (NYS: ALG).

Pacific Industrial (TKS: 7250), a manufacturer and developer of automotive parts, was acquired for JPY 110.0B by its Management. EV/EBIDTA was 2.86x and EV/Revenue was 0.49x.

Nalu Medical, developer of a neurostimulation implant, was acquired for $533.0M by Boston Scientific (NYS: BSX). EV/Revenue was 8.88x.

Like me, operator of a live streamer management platform, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $1.5B by AViC (TKS: 9554).

Goodpack, provider of rentable intermediate bulk containers, was acquired for $1.4B by its Founding Lam Family.

Life Science REIT (LON: LABS), the first London-listed REIT to focus on investment in properties, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for GBP 150.0M by British Land Company (LON: BLND). Panmure Liberum advised on the sale.

Kaia Health, operator of a digital health platform, was acquired for $285.0M by Sword Health.

BioProtect, developer of a pro-space balloon system, was acquired for $200.0M by Almeda Ventures (TAE: AMDA).

Private Placement Transactions💭

Upwind Security, operator of a cybersecurity company, raised $250.0M of Series B venture funding led by Bessemer Venture Partners.

Standard Nuclear, provider of a renewable energy service, raised $140.0M of Series A venture funding led by Decisive Point.

Ricursive Intelligence, developer of AI-driven semiconductor design platform, raised $300.0M of Series A venture funding led by Lightspeed Venture Partners at a pre-money valuation of $3.7B.

Vention, developer of a cloud-based digital manufacturing platform, raised $110.0M of Series D venture funding from Investissement Quebec, Desjardins Capital, and nVentures.

Span, developer of a smart energy management system, raised $188.25M of venture funding from Kyber Knight Capital and other undisclosed investors.

Northwood Space, developer of an ultra-wideband gateway technology, raised $100.0M of Series B venture funding led by Andreessen Horowitz and Washington Harbour.

Waabi, developer of a generative AI intelligence powered autonomous trucking platform, raised $750.0M of Series C venture funding led by Khosla Ventures and G2 Venture Partners.

Redwood Materials, operator of a battery-materials platform, raised $425.0M of Series E venture funding led by Eclipse Ventures.

PaleBlueDot.AI, developer of an AI cloud agent platform, raised $150.0M of Series B venture funding led by B Capital Group.

Cellares, operator of an integrated development and manufacturing organization, raised $257.0M of Series D venture funding led by BlackRock Private Equity and Eclipse Ventures.

Odds of the Day 🍒

Polymarket traders are pricing in a 34% chance of Rick Rieder being the next Fed Chair:

Noteworthy Chart 🧭

Meme Cleanser 😆

Until next time!

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