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Why $190 Was the Level to Watch on ORCL |
By Brandon Chapman, CMT |
Twenty-four hours before Oracle's earnings, someone bought 24,000 puts at exactly one strike: $190. |
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The next morning, Oracle gapped down and stopped right there. |
Luck? |
Insider knowledge? |
Neither. |
They just understood something most traders miss about how stocks behave after earnings disappointments. |
The Setup Nobody Talked About |
Oracle rallied into earnings. The stock climbed from 190 to 210 on pre-earnings momentum. Analysts were bullish. |
But consider the possible outcomes. |
If Oracle surprises to the upside, maybe the stock rallies 5%. That move is largely baked into the price already. Limited upside. |
If Oracle disappoints, the stock snaps back to 190. All that anticipated gain evaporates. You give back the entire pre-earnings rally in one overnight gap. |
The math was asymmetric. Upside capped around 5%. Downside was a clean 10% back to prior support. And the downside would hit faster and harder. |
Why $190 Mattered |
That $190 level was where Oracle traded before the pre-earnings rally started. It was natural support. |
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When stocks disappoint after running into earnings, they don't drift lower gradually. They gap back to where they started. This happens repeatedly. |
The Ghost Prints Surveillance Console flagged 24,000 puts at that exact strike. Someone positioned for mean reversion. Not a crash. Not insider knowledge. Just recognition that $190 was where the stock would land if the news disappointed. |
The puts didn't cause the stock to stop at $190. The puts were positioned there because sophisticated traders understood that's where mean reversion would take it. |
What the Print Actually Told Us |
This is how you read institutional flow. You're not looking for someone who knows the earnings numbers. You're looking for positioning around asymmetric outcomes. |
The print revealed which move would be bigger. Not which direction was guaranteed. The skew favored the downside - larger magnitude, faster move, cleaner target. |
As Brandon said during the session: "Is it gonna be perfect? No, nothing is 100%. We're just trying to put ourselves in that position." |
How Gamma Accelerated the Move |
Oracle missed. The stock gapped lower. Then the mechanics kicked in. |
Those 24,000 puts moved toward the money. Market makers who sold those contracts had to hedge their exposure by shorting shares. |
As Oracle dropped toward 190, hedging requirements increased. More selling pressure. The gamma squeeze accelerated the decline toward the target that was already baked in. |
The options didn't determine the destination. They accelerated the journey to a level that fundamental mean reversion was already pointing toward. |
What's Different About TSM |
Taiwan Semiconductor showed different positioning. Someone bought 8,000 puts at the $175 strike while TSM traded near highs around $200. |
Same directional bet. Different setup entirely. |
Brandon specifically noted the TSM puts lacked gamma squeeze potential. At $175 with the stock at $200, those puts had roughly 0.03 delta. Almost no hedging required. No feedback loop. |
The TSM print reflects sentiment - someone wants downside protection. But without meaningful delta, there's no mechanical pressure pulling the stock toward that strike. |
Not every put print creates a target. The Oracle setup was specific: puts near prior support, close to the money after a gap, with enough delta to force hedging. TSM doesn't have that. |
The Framework, Not the Prediction |
The print doesn't predict outcomes. It reveals which outcome offers better risk-reward when the probabilities are asymmetric. |
Oracle validated the framework: identify the natural reversion level, recognize when options positioning aligns with that level, understand that gamma can accelerate but doesn't determine direction. |
Watch this short video and see how I quickly scan and turn large options prints into actionable trades. |
The goal isn't prediction. It's probability. Oracle showed what happens when skew, positioning, and fundamentals align. |
Brandon Chapman, CMT
Creator of Ghost Prints |
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