| TQ Morning Briefing | Rotation Week, Not Panic Week | | | | | | The market enters the final full trading week of the year in assessment mode rather than retreat. Friday's drawdown did not fracture structure. It clarified leadership. | For most of the past quarter, price action followed a simple loop. The Fed would cut. AI investment would compound. Liquidity would support higher multiples. That loop has not broken, but it has slowed enough for markets to begin differentiating again. | The shift underway is not about whether policy is easing. That debate is settled. What matters now is how capital behaves once AI enthusiasm cools at the margin and liquidity moves from tailwind to constraint. | That change is already visible. Mega-cap tech is no longer absorbing capital automatically. Margins, backlog visibility, labor availability, and capex timing are back in focus. At the same time, the rest of the market has improved quietly. Small caps, transports, and select cyclicals are no longer lagging. They are participating. | The Fed reinforced this backdrop in subtle fashion. The rate cut was expected. The balance sheet signal was not. The return of Treasury bill purchases changes the plumbing even as officials downplay its importance. | Globally, the environment is less forgiving. China's slowdown is no longer theoretical. Europe is managing through it. Japan is preparing to move the other way on rates. U.S. markets are responding not with liquidation, but with rotation. | This is not a regime break. It is a regime sorting. |
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| | | | U.S. equity futures are steadily higher after Friday's tech-led pullback, with broader indices holding near record levels even as leadership shifted beneath the surface. | Friday's session centered on pressure in the areas that had carried the market for much of the quarter. Oracle and Broadcom became focal points, not because results collapsed, but because they forced a conversation around timing. | Reports of possible delays in Oracle's data center buildout triggered selling across the AI infrastructure stack, from data centers to power and semiconductors. | Even after Oracle disputed the delay narrative, sentiment had already shifted. The SOX index fell sharply intraday. High-multiple infrastructure names failed to recover. The market is no longer willing to ignore timelines and margins simply because the long-term story remains intact. | What mattered just as much was what held. The Dow and Russell 2000 stayed near highs. Transports continued to signal steady demand. Defensive sectors outperformed quietly. Equal-weight indices remained resilient. Volatility rose, but from compressed levels, and ended well below intraday peaks. | | Rates told the same story. The 10 year yield pushed toward 4.20 percent while the front end eased. The dollar stayed soft. Gold and silver held near record levels. Bitcoin struggled to regain momentum near 90,000. | This is not a risk-off tape. It is a selective one. |
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| | | | The Fed's most consequential move last week was not the rate cut. It was the restart of Treasury bill purchases. | Officially, the move is framed as routine reserve management. The stated goal is to prevent short-term liquidity strain ahead of tax season. On its own, that explanation fits. In aggregate, the scale matters more. | Including reinvestments, Fed demand will absorb a large share of Treasury bill issuance in the year ahead. That allows the Treasury to lean more heavily on short-term funding while easing pressure on longer-dated auctions. It also supports liquidity through bond buybacks. | This matters because the rate channel is no longer doing the work. Since the Fed began cutting in late 2024, long-term yields have risen. That reflects higher term premiums driven by fiscal supply, global yield competition, and persistent deficits | | Globally, policy paths are diverging. The Bank of Japan is preparing to hike. The Bank of England is leaning toward easing. The ECB remains on hold. Currency markets are responding, with yen strength and dollar softness supporting commodities and precious metals. | Policy is no longer synchronized. Markets are adjusting. |
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| | | | | Trade Winds & Global Shifts |
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| | | China is reentering the global narrative for uncomfortable reasons. | November data confirmed broad weakness across consumption, investment, and real estate. Retail sales slowed further. Fixed asset investment contracted. Property investment remains deeply negative, with prices still falling across major cities. Youth unemployment remains elevated, and confidence continues to erode. | Exports remain the offset. China's record trade surplus highlights continued reliance on external demand even as domestic momentum fades. That imbalance is becoming harder to sustain and raises the risk of renewed trade friction. | Beijing has pledged more support for domestic demand, but concrete measures remain limited. Policymakers continue to prioritize industrial self-reliance even as consumption weakens. That tension defines China's outlook into 2026. | Geopolitically, Ukraine negotiations have entered a more delicate phase. Kyiv's willingness to abandon NATO aspirations in exchange for security guarantees marks a meaningful shift, even as the path to agreement remains narrow. | Energy markets are also watching Venezuela, but with restraint. Even a favorable political outcome would take years and heavy investment to lift production. Near-term pricing remains driven by demand uncertainty and supply discipline. |
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| | | | | D.C. in the Driver's Seat |
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| | | Domestic policy risk is becoming more political than economic. | President Trump has acknowledged uncertainty that investment announcements will translate into midterm gains. While headline growth holds up, the household experience remains uneven. Cost-of-living pressures continue to shape voter sentiment. | Tariffs remain central to the administration's strategy, but their legal footing is under review. A pending Supreme Court decision could limit how quickly they can be deployed. Alternatives exist, but they are slower. | Institutional tension is also rising around the Fed. The race to succeed Chair Powell is narrowing, reviving debate over independence at a moment when balance sheet policy is again becoming consequential. | Markets are watching credibility as closely as outcomes. |
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| | | | Fed Speakers: Miran, Williams
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index
NAHB Housing Market Index |
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| | | | | | Asia: Nikkei -1.31%, Shanghai -0.55%
Europe: FTSE 100 +0.90, DAX +0.49% |
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| | | | Friday's selloff was not a verdict on growth. It was a test of concentration. | AI remains a structural driver, but the market is no longer willing to price every assumption without scrutiny. Capital is broadening rather than fleeing. | Policy is easing at the margin. Liquidity is becoming more conditional. Global growth is diverging. Volatility is stirring. | The year is ending the way it began. Not with panic. With repricing. |
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