| TQ Evening Briefing | Traders on the NYSE floor as markets rotated away from AI and into defensives. AI pressure lingered, rotation held, and commodities stole the late-day spotlight. | | | | | | The market started the week on uneven footing as early gains faded into the close. | The S&P 500 slipped modestly, the Nasdaq lagged, and the Dow held up better as investors continued rotating away from AI-heavy exposure. | Under the surface, the pattern held.
AI-linked names remained the drag, with Broadcom and Oracle extending last week's pullback and Microsoft weighing on tech breadth. That pressure kept the Nasdaq pinned lower even as other areas stabilized. | Rotation beneficiaries showed up again. Industrials, consumer discretionary, and health care led sector performance, reinforcing the shift toward earnings durability over narrative momentum. | Outside equities, commodities took leadership. Gold pushed deeper into record territory, silver extended its surge, and Treasury yields finished near unchanged with the 10-year hovering around 4.18%. Crypto traded softer, with bitcoin slipping below recent highs. | On single names, Hershey rallied after a Morgan Stanley upgrade. Cannabis stocks pulled back after Friday's surge. Broadcom remained the center of gravity in tech as AI margin concerns lingered. | The tape stayed data-light and positioning-driven. | Looking ahead, Tuesday brings delayed Nonfarm Payrolls and Retail Sales, followed by CPI on Thursday. These are the week's key checkpoints for risk sentiment. |
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| | | | Markets are being forced to price something bigger than the next data print: who ultimately controls monetary power. | That question moved closer to center stage as the Supreme Court prepares to hear arguments in January over President Trump's attempt to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook. | The Court has shown a willingness to expand presidential authority across agencies, but it has repeatedly carved out the Fed as "different." | For markets, the distinction is simple. Credibility anchors inflation expectations. Control destabilizes them. | Any ruling that weakens the Fed's insulation would raise long-term questions around inflation credibility, term premia, and the risk premium embedded in yields. | That backdrop is bleeding into the race for the next Fed chair. | Kevin Hassett's odds slipped as pushback emerged over his perceived closeness to Trump, while Kevin Warsh re-entered the frame as a more market-palatable alternative. | The takeaway isn't who wins, it's that bond markets are already signaling they care. | Chair credibility now sits squarely inside rate expectations. | Inside the Fed, the divide is widening. | Governor Stephen Miran argues inflation data is overstating pressure, pointing to backward-looking shelter costs and measurement distortions. | His view: underlying inflation is closer to target, and staying too tight risks unnecessary labor damage. | Others see stubborn price pressure that still demands restraint. | Policy isn't just about inflation anymore, it's about governance, perception, and whether markets trust the hands on the wheel. | That trust is now a live variable. |
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| | | | Washington spent the session reminding markets that policy risk isn't just about rates. | It's about friction. | Start with the courts. | A federal judge ruled prosecutors improperly retained evidence tied to the James Comey case, forcing its return and complicating any renewed charges. | The door isn't closed, but the message is clear: | Legal constraints are slowing what had looked like a straight-line escalation. | That tempers near-term headline risk around politically charged prosecutions and keeps volatility contained rather than explosive. | At the same time, enforcement pressure is rising elsewhere. | A Wisconsin judge went on trial over allegations she obstructed an ICE arrest, putting immigration policy directly into the judicial system. | That matters less for sentiment and more for signals: the administration is willing to test boundaries, even with sitting judges. | Expect this to keep legal, municipal, and public-sector risk premiums elevated. | Against that backdrop, the administration rolled out its most market-facing move. | The initiative formalizes government–private sector collaboration on AI, data, and digital infrastructure, with Big Tech names embedded in execution. | That's a structural positive for federal AI spending, cloud demand, and defense-adjacent tech, and a quiet acknowledgment that the talent war matters as much as the capital war. | Legal uncertainty adds friction, enforcement raises noise, but capital keeps flowing toward strategic priorities. | Markets aren't trading politics, they're pricing where Washington is willing to spend, pressure, and persist. |
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| | | | Uh-oh! There's a New Shortage Brewing — And Trump Is Furious | A perfect storm is brewing. | While politicians focus on tariffs, rates, and jobs, a far more dangerous problem is unfolding quietly. | America is running out of a critical resource that powers the entire economy. | That helps explain why:
• The U.S. Treasury halted production of certain coins
• Companies are tapping limited reserves
• A government task force is scrambling for answers | Former presidential advisor Jim Rickards warns this crisis "could be worse than COVID," forcing President Trump into the most difficult economic decision of his presidency. | The good news? Trump may soon unlock a $150 trillion asset held in reserve for over a century. | Rickards explains what happens next — and which investments could benefit. | Get the full briefing here. |
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| | | | Global markets are being reminded that geopolitics isn't noise when capital is this tightly wound. | In Berlin, U.S.-brokered Ukraine talks edged closer to substance, and friction. | Washington signaled that any peace framework would require Ukrainian withdrawal from parts of Donetsk, a line Kyiv says it can't cross without binding security guarantees. | Markets hear something else: the probability of a frozen conflict rising. | That keeps European risk assets capped, defense spending supported, and energy supply risk priced as persistent rather than explosive. | That theme was reinforced in London. | Britain's MI6 chief warned Russia is dragging out negotiations while expanding gray-zone pressure… cyber, sabotage, and infrastructure disruption. | That's less about tanks and more about volatility: higher security spending, resilient defense demand, and continued caution around European industrial supply chains. | Trade policy added another layer. | The latest read on Trump-era tariffs shows neither boom nor bust, just friction. | Growth has held, inflation hasn't reignited, but uncertainty has delayed investment and reshuffled supply chains. | That ambiguity matters. | It keeps capex selective, supports nearshoring narratives, and leaves global manufacturing flows uneven rather than collapsing. | Peace isn't imminent, tariffs aren't clean, and security risks aren't fading. | Capital responds accordingly: | Defensive tilts stay funded, regional risk premiums remain sticky, and global allocators keep favoring markets where policy and power look predictable. | Even if growth isn't spectacular. |
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| | | | | | | I had to share this today. | A strange new "wonder material" just shattered two world records — and the company behind it is suddenly partnering with some of the biggest names in tech. | We're talking Samsung, LG, Lenovo, Dell, Xiaomi… and Nvidia. | Nvidia is already racing to deploy this technology inside its new AI super-factories. | Why the urgency? | Because this breakthrough could become critical to the next phase of AI. And if any tiny stock has the potential to repeat Nvidia's 35,600% climb, this might be it. | See the full story here. |
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| | | | Monday clarified the tape. | AI pressure persisted, rotation held, and commodities quietly took leadership. With jobs data and inflation ahead, markets are less focused on chasing upside and more focused on how much slowing they can absorb without breaking. | The question this week is not growth versus recession. It is whether breadth can hold as leadership shifts and policy credibility stays intact. | So far, it is. |
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