| TQ Morning Briefing | Markets Wake Up to a Fed That Cut, Divided, and Triggered a Rally That Now Must Prove It Can Stand on Its Own | | | | | | The market enters Thursday carrying the residue of a day that moved fast, surprised almost no one, and still managed to reset everything. | The Fed delivered the quarter-point cut futures had choreographed for weeks, but the story wasn't the cut. It was the division behind it, the mechanics beneath it, and the rally that erupted anyway. | This is where the tape finds itself this morning:
A labor-insurance cut sold as stabilization rather than stimulus.
A sharply divided FOMC revealing that 2026 is far from settled.
A market that treated Powell's tone as permission to keep climbing. | It all leaves traders with a clean but uncomfortable question. Was yesterday the crescendo of a move built on anticipation, or the opening act of a rally that suddenly has the wind at its back? | The answer will come not from the decision itself but from how markets behave now that policy is no longer hypothetical. The tape has a habit of demanding proof once the event passes. Today is the first real chance to show whether this rally is conviction or reflex. |
| |
| | |
| | | | Nvidia's Secret Partner... This Is The New AI Chip Powerhouse | | I bet you've never heard of it... but this newly public company is set to become key to Nvidia's seat on the AI throne. And for now... you can get in while it's still cheap. | Details Here! |
| |
| | |
| | | | U.S. equity futures are pointing lower as the market digests Oracle's disappointing results and reassesses the staying power of yesterday's Fed-driven rally. | S&P 500 futures are down roughly 0.4 percent and Nasdaq futures are off more than 0.6 percent, with tech leading the retreat. | Oracle fell more than 11 percent after missing revenue expectations and guiding to higher spending, reviving the question hanging over the AI complex: how quickly monetization will arrive relative to the cost curve. | Nvidia and CoreWeave followed lower, and the XLK is indicated down more than 1 percent pre-market. | The tone stands in sharp contrast to Wednesday's session, when markets surged after the Fed delivered its third rate cut of the year and ruled out hikes. The Dow climbed nearly 500 points, the Russell 2000 closed at a record, and the S&P 500 finished within reach of all-time highs. | But the follow-through has faded as traders confront the Fed's message of patience and a slower pace of easing ahead. | | Treasury yields are steady after yesterday's late-day rally, with the 10-year holding near 4.17 percent. The dollar continues to drift lower following Powell's remarks, while gold and crude are modestly firm. | Tech weakness is the defining feature of the morning. | Outside of Oracle, the software tape is splitting: Synopsys is trading higher after beating expectations and highlighting its Nvidia partnership, Planet Labs is up double digits on a revenue beat, and Adobe is little changed despite delivering top- and bottom-line growth and forecasting double-digit recurring revenue expansion for 2026. | Markets are now attempting to reconcile two competing forces: a Fed that cut as expected and removed the threat of hikes, and an AI trade that remains powerful but increasingly sensitive to proof of return on massive spending. | Futures suggest traders are bracing for a more selective tape rather than a continuation of yesterday's broad rally. |
| |
| | |
| | | | The Fed delivered the expected 25-basis-point cut to 3.5 to 3.75 percent, making it the third consecutive meeting with a reduction. | What was not expected was the depth of the disagreement behind the scenes. Three dissents pushed for either no cut or a deeper cut, marking the most divided FOMC since 2019. | Powell framed the move as labor-market protection, arguing that risks have shifted since October and that yesterday's cut stabilizes rather than stimulates. His comments signaled a likely pause in January but left room for additional easing later in 2026. | The new dot plot revealed a wide dispersion of views with the median projecting just one cut next year. A cluster of officials expect none, while a handful still anticipate multiple. Markets continue to believe the dots understate the true trajectory. | Perhaps the most notable development was the Fed's decision to begin T-bill purchases immediately, roughly $40 billion a month, to ease short-term funding strain. The move surprised the street and reinforced the idea that liquidity management will matter as much as rate cuts in shaping 2026 conditions. | Globally, central banks remain largely neutral into year-end. The ECB holds steady but is increasingly attentive to upside price pressure. | Japan continues preparing the market for another domestic tightening step. Currency flows show clear evidence of policy divergence rather than broad risk seeking. |
| |
| | |
| | | | | Trade Winds & Global Shifts |
| |
|
| | | China is accelerating its edge in the AI race by weaponizing scale. Its ultra-low-cost power grid is now feeding vast data-center hubs across Inner Mongolia, allowing domestic firms to stitch together massive chip clusters at electricity prices U.S. operators can't come close to matching. | That widening "electron gap" is no longer an abstract concern for Silicon Valley. It is actively reshaping where global compute is built and how quickly China can narrow the distance on Western hardware. | Washington's emerging Ukraine blueprint is pushing directly against Europe's red lines. The U.S. plan to tap roughly $200 billion in frozen Russian assets for reconstruction, and eventually reopen select sectors of Russia's economy to Western capital, lands in direct conflict with Europe's strategy of sustained economic isolation. | What began as peace negotiations is evolving into a transatlantic struggle over who gets to redraw the region's postwar economic map. | Tension in the Pacific ticked higher as two U.S. B-52s joined Japanese F-35s and F-15s in a coordinated overflight of the Sea of Japan, a deliberate response to earlier Russia-China patrols near Japanese airspace. | Tokyo framed it as reassurance that pressure won't crack the alliance. The flight underscored a broader truth: even as Washington courts a trade détente with Beijing, it is still reinforcing the security architecture that keeps the Indo-Pacific balance from slipping. |
| |
| | |
| | | | Everyone's Watching Bitcoin — Smart Investors are Scooping Up The Altcoins No One Is Touching. | While the crowd panics and dumps, a few investors quietly buy bargains. The result: altcoins are trading at steep discounts — even as fundamentals begin improving in the background. | This isn't hype. It's a classic buy-low, ride-high setup. And it's rarely this clear. | The Crypto Retirement Blueprint shows exactly how to target the coins with potential for massive gains — even if you start small today. | Download your copy now before this rare opportunity disappears. | © 2025 Boardwalk Flock LLC. All Rights Reserved. 2382 Camino Vida Roble, Suite I Carlsbad, CA 92011, United States. The advice and strategies contained herein may not be suitable for your situation. You should consult with a professional where appropriate. Readers acknowledge that the authors are not engaging in the rendering of legal, financial, medical, or professional advice. The reader agrees that under no circumstances Boardwalk Flock, LLC is responsible for any losses, direct or indirect, which are incurred as a result of the use of the information contained within this, including, but not limited to, errors, omissions, or inaccuracies. Results may not be typical and may vary from person to person. Making money trading digital currencies takes time and hard work. There are inherent risks involved with investing, including the loss of your investment. Past performance in the market is not indicative of future results. Any investment is at your own risk. |
| |
| | |
| | | | | D.C. in the Driver's Seat |
| |
|
| | | Healthcare fractures inside the GOP are now front-page policy risk. A growing number of House and Senate Republicans are signaling openness to extending ACA subsidies temporarily to avoid sharp cost increases for millions. Leadership remains opposed, but a bipartisan petition could force the issue onto the House floor. | Agricultural pressure continues to build as farm equipment demand collapses under tariff strain. Lawmakers are urging the administration to expand aid or adjust tariff exemptions to relieve the sector. Deere's commentary underscored the severity of the downturn in the U.S. farm economy. | The trucking industry is bracing for a material reduction in available drivers after the administration's enforcement of English-proficiency standards removed nearly ten thousand drivers from service. Freight markets already under pressure may face additional tightening heading into 2026. |
| |
| | |
| | | | Balance of Trade
Initial Jobless Claims |
| |
|
| | | | Broadcom (AVGO), Costco (COST) |
| |
| | |
| | | | Asia: Nikkei -0.90%, Shanghai -0.70%
Europe: FTSE 100 +0.14, DAX +0.04% |
| |
| | |
| | | | | | | | Markets step into Thursday with a rally that wants to extend but must validate itself. The cut is behind us. The conflict inside the Fed is not. | Financial conditions eased yesterday on tone, liquidity guidance, and Powell's labor focus. But the forward path remains uncertain with the most divided dot plot in years and a January pause now the implied base case. | If risk appetite can hold through today's digestion phase, the year-end rally remains viable. If not, yesterday becomes a high-water mark in a market that has been leaning on expectation more than confirmation. | Today will reveal which version traders believe. |
| |
| | |
|
|
Tidak ada komentar:
Posting Komentar