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Happy Sunday!

Two names have carried the S&P 500 this year.

Alphabet and Nvidia.

Together, they account for more than one third of the index's total gains, according to data from DataTrek Research.

When you include the rest of Big Tech, the group makes up 49% of the S&P 500's advance.
Alphabet alone is responsible for 20% of the index's rise.

It's a clear reminder of how dependent the market has become on a handful of companies.

Key Data Bites From This Week:

SpaceX is in talks for a share sale with an $800B valuation.
Netflix will acquire Warner Bros. Discovery in $72B deal.
Nvidia took a $2B stake in Synopsys to accelerate AI engineering.
Bitcoin miners have stolen $1B of electricity from Malaysia grid.
Databricks in talks to raise $5B at $134B valuation.
DoorDash insider Alfred Lin purchased $100M worth of stock.
Cyber Monday spending increased 7.1% to a record $14B.
Strategy created a $1.44B USD reserve to avoid selling Bitcoin.
U.S. manufacturing contracted for the 9th straight month.
Prada has officially purchased Versace in a $1.4B deal.
Oracle's credit risk reached 16-year high on AI bubble fears.
U.S. government will invest $150M in lithography startup xLight.
Bending Spoons will acquire Eventbrite for $500M.
Michael and Susan Dell pledged $6.25B for Trump Accounts program.
TikTok plans to invest over $37B in Brazil data center.
Layoffs have crossed 1.1M this year, most since 2020 pandemic.

Earnings Results:

MongoDB exceeded Q3 expectations and posted 19% revenue growth.
CrowdStrike saw total ARR increase 23% to $4.92B, above estimates.
American Eagle forecasts Q4 comp sales to rise 8.5%, far above the 2.1% estimate.
Salesforce raised its full-year guidance as Agentforce hit $540M in ARR.
Ulta Beauty hiked sales and earnings outlook for 2nd straight quarter.

In today's newsletter:

🍎 Apple Hits New ATH
🪙 Silver Prices Have Doubled
🏃‍♂️ Gemini Is Catching Up
♻️ S&P 500 Reshuffle
🔥 Meta Burned Billions

Let's jump right in.

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Apple is gaining ground even as the world looks the other way.

While attention centers on AI-first companies and other major tech players, Apple has quietly been hitting all-time highs.
Despite being seen by many as behind in the AI race, Apple is up 14% this year and now sits behind only Nvidia in global market value.

This strength comes even as Apple undergoes its biggest leadership shake-up since Steve Jobs passed away.

More than half a dozen senior leaders are planning to exit, including AI chief John Giannandrea, who will retire in the spring of 2026.

But despite all of this, demand for the iPhone continues to power the business.

IDC expects Apple to ship nearly 250M iPhones in 2025, a 6% increase YoY and a new record.

Investors also take comfort in Apple's discipline.

The company is not spending tens of billions on AI infrastructure or taking on heavy debt, helping preserve strong cash flow and a durable balance sheet.
As Barron's noted, Apple is running a marathon, not a sprint.
The company has bene integrating AI slowly rather than chase rapid, costly expansion.

Meanwhile, Apple's long-term performance has been extraordinary.

Earnings per share have surged nearly 1,300% over the last 15 years.
Shares outstanding have almost been cut in half as the company spends billions buying back shares.
And and as a result, the total return of Apple since 2010 has surpassed a remarkable 4,200%.

Silver is having a breakout year.

The commodity is one of the best-performing assets in 2025, with prices doubling since the start of the year.
It has outperformed Gold, which is up nearly 60%, and has delivered multiples of the Nasdaq and S&P 500.
By comparison, major cryptos like Bitcoin and Ethereum have been flat or slightly negative.

Silver and gold have climbed as investors hedge against geopolitics, a weakening dollar, and political instability, while also benefiting from central banks building reserves and the onset of rate cuts.

All of these forces tie into the debasement trade, which is when investors move into hard assets to protect purchasing power as governments and expansionary monetary policies weaken the value of fiat currencies.

Gemini is on ChatGPT's heels.

According to data from Sensor Tower and reporting by TechCrunch, Google's Gemini chatbot is outpacing ChatGPT in download growth, monthly active users, and time spent in the app.

OpenAI's CEO Sam Altman has taken notice.

This week, he declared "code red" internally to improve ChatGPT's quality and performance as Google threatens OpenAI's lead.

ChatGPT remains the category leader with 55% of global monthly active users and both products are still growing quickly.

ChatGPT's global monthly active users climbed 180% YoY in November 2025, while Gemini's rose 170%.

But more recently, the trend has shifted.

ChatGPT's month-over-month growth has started to flatten, while Gemini's is accelerating.

Gemini's rise has impressed industry leaders as well.

Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff said he used ChatGPT every day for three years, but after spending a few hours with Gemini, he called the leap "insane" and said he's never going back.

It's that time of year again.

On Friday, S&P Global announced its quarterly changes to the S&P 500.

The index is rebalanced every quarter to adjust weightings and add or remove companies that meet its criteria.

Joining the index this quarter are Comfort Systems USA, Carvana, and CRH.
They will replace Solstice Advanced Materials, Mohawk Industries, and LKQ.
These changes take effect before the market opens on Monday, December 22nd.

Several popular names were left out from the swap.

Vertiv Holdings, Coupang, Strategy, and SoFi Technologies did not make the cut.
Many of these stocks fell after hours following the announcement.

Meta's metaverse dream is fading.

On Thursday, Bloomberg reported that CEO Mark Zuckerberg is preparing major cuts to the company's metaverse initiative.

The plans include large budget reductions that could reach as high as 30% and may involve layoffs beginning next year.
Final decisions have not been made yet, and discussions are still ongoing.

The products most likely to face cuts are Meta Horizon Worlds and the Quest VR headset.

Meta said it expects to redirect savings toward other Reality Labs projects, including AI glasses and wearables.

Meta made an aggressive push into the metaverse in 2021 and even rebranded from Facebook to Meta to signal its long-term commitment.

But the vision has not played out as expected.
The company has lost more than $70B in cumulative operating losses in its Reality Labs division since Q4 2020.

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Wall Street Isn't Warning You, But This Chart Might

Vanguard just projected public markets may return only 5% annually over the next decade. In a 2024 report, Goldman Sachs forecasted the S&P 500 may return just 3% annually for the same time frame—stats that put current valuations in the 7th percentile of history.

Translation? The gains we've seen over the past few years might not continue for quite a while.

Meanwhile, another asset class—almost entirely uncorrelated to the S&P 500 historically—has overall outpaced it for decades (1995-2024), according to Masterworks data.

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😭 Emotional Sale^↗ - Masayoshi Son 'cried' over SoftBank's decision to sell its entire Nvidia stake.

👍 Musk's Picks^↗ - Elon Musk recommended Alphabet and Nvidia as attractive AI investments.

🐻 Tesla Bear^↗ - Michael Burry called Tesla 'ridiculously overvalued.'

🇪🇺 Green Impact^↗ - Europe's push into green energy reduced emissions but crippled the economy.

🚀 Massive IPO^↗ - Anthropic is planning an IPO as early as 2026 as its valuation crosses $300B.

‼️ AI Warning^↗ - IBM CEO Arvind Krishna believes there's 'no way' spending trillions on AI data centers will pay off.

Courtesy of our affiliate partner, EarningsHub.

Notable Companies Reporting Earnings Week of December 7th, 2025:

Join EarningsHub!

Major Trades Published 12/1 - 12/5. Trades may be those of family members. [Source: 2iQ]

Buys

Tim Moore (R)
- Company: Hyster-Yale ($HY)
  - Amount Purchased: $145K - $350K
Lindsey Graham (R)
- Company: Vanguard U.S. Growth Fund ($VWUSX)
  - Amount Purchased: $100K - $250K

Sells

Tim Moore (R)
- Company: Verizon Communications ($VZ)
  - Amount Sold: $100K - $250K
- Company: LGI Homes ($LGIH)
  - Amount Sold: $50K - $100K
Lindsey Graham (R)
- Company: Vanguard U.S. Growth Fund ($VWUSX)
  - Amount Sold: $100K - $250K

Major Trades Published 12/1 - 12/5

Buys

Blue Owl Capital ($OWL)
- Insider: Douglas Ostrover I (Co-CEO)
  - # of Shares Purchased: 158,000
  - $ Amount: $2,379,469
  - SEC Forms: [1]
- Insider: Marc Lipschultz (Co-CEO)
  - # of Shares Purchased: 158,000
  - $ Amount: $2,379,470
  - SEC Forms: [1]
- Insider: Craig Packer (Co-President)
  - # of Shares Purchased: 125,000
  - $ Amount: $1,882,492
  - SEC Forms: [1]
- Insider: Alan Kirshenbaum (CFO)
  - # of Shares Purchased: 33,670
  - $ Amount: $500,808
  - SEC Forms: [1]

Sells

Twilio ($TWLO)
- Insider: Andrew Stafman (Director)
  - # of Shares Sold: 1,000,000
  - $ Amount: $129,000,000
  - SEC Forms: [1]

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