| A market drenched in rich valuations isn't one to avoid. It's one that demands scrutiny and wisdom - the kind value investors have practiced for decades. You weigh price against quality. You insist on a margin of safety. You accept that the crowd can be wrong for a long time. Frankly, I like when most people ignore this. It gives me an edge. I look where others won't because they're busy chasing buzz. (My August 15 Value Meter column is a perfect example.) Right now, the best values I see are in small caps. They trade at a clear discount to large caps. Over full market cycles, that's often where leadership flips and excess returns emerge. So long-term investors should be ecstatic about this. History favors small caps on a global scale, which makes today a real opportunity. But don't look only at the U.S. Over the past 20 years, U.S. small caps have lagged large caps. But abroad, the story flips. In developed international markets - and in emerging markets - small caps have led. Leadership rotates. Valuation gaps close. That is how cycles work. The long-run data also suggests the U.S. gap is likely to narrow. Trends mean-revert, and current valuations help. (When you can buy durable small businesses at a discount while attention fixates on mega-cap winners, the odds tilt in your favor.) That's why it's better to buy when small caps are out of favor - when focus is elsewhere and sentiment is sour. It's not about calling a top or a bottom. It's about treating price as a key part of the process and letting time do the heavy lifting. Today, that discipline seems boring. Good. Boring sets you apart. Take advantage of it. Be excellent, Anthony |
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