| A GREY SWAN PUBLICATION | Tuesday April 15, 2025 | Swan Dive — April 15, 2025 Two Dollars, One Crisis of Confidence From the desk of Addison Wiggin
Global demand for the dollar is shifting. Quietly at first, now more abruptly.
But here’s the catch: what U.S. policymakers think they’re doing — and how the rest of the world reacts — are now two entirely different realities.
You’re right — it’s a conundrum. Most experts only start talking about a “strong” dollar when its value is in question.
First things first. We have two dollars. One is domestic — the “payment” dollar we use for eggs and gas. The other is global — the “reserve” dollar used for trade and storing sovereign wealth.
The payment dollar bends to monetary policy and the federal deficit spending.
The reserve dollar? It's swayed by trade, military posture, and — above all — trust. That trust has eroded.
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After pandemic-fueled spending and today’s tariff turmoil, foreign buyers are backing away from U.S. Treasurys. Confidence — at home and abroad — is wobbling.
Until we control the budget and clarify trade policy, markets will keep deciding what our currency is really worth. No matter what the Trump team says about a strong dollar.
📊 Tariff Toss-Up Trump teased a pause on auto tariffs, triggering a market bounce. It followed the weekend’s delay on consumer electronics levies. But any goodwill evaporated fast. Commerce just launched new probes into semiconductors and pharmaceuticals.
China retaliated in its own day — no more Boeing jet deliveries.
Meanwhile, Japan’s trade delegation touches down this week. They’ll find out if being a U.S. ally still gets you a seat at the adult table. Odds aren’t great.
Under the surface of the U.S. financial system…
One of the biggest stock market events in 25 years is rapidly unfolding…
The economist who predicted the 2008 Financial Crisis says it will be: "The Biggest Crash of Our Lifetime."
Starting May 21st — your favorite tech stocks like Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Google, and hundreds more could come crashing down…
Cutting the entire tech market by HALF – virtually overnight.
This is why the world’s financial elite are panic-selling stocks at the fastest rate in a decade.
To help you prepare…
Our guest expert is giving you his #1 stock to profit – 100% FREE. 
🛬 Tourism Tanks, Services Surplus at Risk Foreign visitors spent $254 billion in the U.S. last year — a huge piece of our $293 billion services surplus. But that tap may be tightening. Arrivals dropped nearly 10% in March, and stories of rough detentions at U.S. airports are going viral.  Bloomberg Intelligence sees $20 billion in tourist spending on the chopping block. Goldman Sachs warns the broader GDP hit could reach $90 billion. That’s not petty cash. And increased tariff revenue needs to be seen in the light of factors like reduced foreign tourism.
🏦 Big Banks Thrive on Volatility Citigroup and Bank of America posted earnings this morning, capping a banner quarter for equity trading. Thank the trade war and rising market uncertainty. More volatility, more commissions.
J&J and United Airlines also report today — two bellwethers for health care spending and travel.
We’ll see if these companies are expecting consumers to keep the plastic tappin’.
⛽🪙 Gold Soars, Oil Slumps: A Crisis in Confidence CNN’s Fear Index dropped back to below 10 today, well in “extreme fear” territory. Gold ripped 7% last week — its best 3-day run in five years. It’s now up 23% this year, 38% in the past 12 months. That’s not a hedge. It’s a verdict.
Meanwhile, the IEA cut its 2025 global oil demand outlook and sees a glut extending into 2026. But don’t count on cheap gas at the pump.
Geopolitical friction — plus a softening dollar — could send oil prices higher even as demand slips. And that means pain at the pump, just in time for summer travel. Americans might be taking fewer road trips — and buying fewer souvenirs when they get there.
Goldman Sachs summed it up: “Tariffs and retaliation are already dragging exports. Add collapsing confidence, and GDP will likely underperform expectations in 2025.” Two dollars. One crisis. The real reserve currency is still trust. Addison P.S.: For paid members, we have our latest Grey Swan Live! This Thursday, April 17, at 11 a.m. ET.
This week, we'll dive into the gold rally and what it signals for global finance with Jason Cozens, CEO of GlintPay.com.
Jason is also on the front lines of a domestic effort to restore “constitutional” gold at the U.S. state level. Join us. We’ll explain what all that means! This one matters.
As always, your cheerful reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)
How did we get here? Find out in these riveting reads: Demise of the Dollar, Financial Reckoning Day, and Empire of Debt — all three books are now available in their third post-pandemic editions. You might enjoy one or all three. 
(Or… simply pre-order Empire of Debt: We Came, We Saw, We Borrowed, now available at Amazon and Barnes & Noble or if you prefer one of these sites: Bookshop.org, Books-A-Million or Target.)
Please send your comments, reactions, opprobrium, vitriol and praise to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com |
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