Selasa, 29 April 2025

The Best Days Are Ahead for This Unloved Asset Class

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Why Bitcoin's Best Days Could Lie Ahead

Robert Ross

Robert Ross
Speculative Assets Specialist

April 2025 was one of the most chaotic months on record.

The S&P 500 fell 21% in five weeks…

The Nasdaq fell 26% over the same period…

But Bitcoin? It was actually up over this same period.

That's highly unusual.

Historically, Bitcoin has acted like a "high beta" version of the Nasdaq. Whenever the Nasdaq rallied, Bitcoin went farther. When the Nasdaq fell, Bitcoin crashed harder.

From 2020 to 2023, the 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq hovered around 0.6, according to Bloomberg data.

They moved together... until now.

The Trump administration's "Liberation Day" tariffs in early April shocked the system.

Stocks collapsed.

Treasury yields spiked.

The dollar got crushed.

But Bitcoin didn't seem to care.

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Bitcoin Is "Graduating" as an Asset Class

Bitcoin is starting to behave as many of its advocates always claimed it would: an alternative financial system outside traditional markets.

This "decoupling" is worth exploring.

First, we see fading confidence in U.S. financial stability, or as the Financial Times called it, "The Moron Premium."

The U.S. government almost blew up the Treasury market and triggered a recession... on purpose.

That's the "controlled demolition" strategy Trump has been pursuing to force the Fed into cutting rates.

But this chaos shook foreign investors' confidence in U.S. assets, and with it, the dollar itself.

When people lose faith in governments, currencies, and financial markets, they start looking for outside bets.

Gold has surged this year.

And Bitcoin, digital gold for a digital generation, is catching a similar bid.

Second, global investors want alternatives to the U.S. dollar.

The global financial system still runs on dollars. But that reliance is increasingly seen as a risk, not a feature.

The world is slowly but surely moving toward a multipolar currency system, from BRICS nations to central banks diversifying their reserves.

In a world where government money printing seems inevitable, Bitcoin's fixed supply (only 21 million coins will ever exist) and decentralized structure make it attractive. And the more chaos politicians create, the better Bitcoin looks in contrast.

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Lastly, crypto is also "maturing" as an asset class.

Stablecoin adoption is exploding. Real-world asset tokenization is growing. And Bitcoin's infrastructure - from ETFs to institutional custody solutions - is more robust than ever.

Today, Bitcoin is better equipped to survive market volatility without getting crushed alongside tech stocks.

It's still volatile.

But it's showing early signs of acting like a separate asset class, not just a hyper-growth gamble.

What It Means for Investors

If Bitcoin continues to decouple from riskier stocks, it will change how portfolios are constructed.

Instead of lumping Bitcoin into "speculative tech," investors could treat it like a legitimate alternative asset - more like gold, less like Cathie Wood's Ark Innovation Fund (ARKK).

That would mean Bitcoin could actually help diversify a portfolio, not just amplify risk.

Of course, it's still early.

Correlations can be noisy, especially over short periods. If we get a major liquidity event or credit crunch, Bitcoin could absolutely sell off with everything else. It's not immune.

But April 2025 was an important stress test. And Bitcoin passed.

It didn't crash when it historically would have. On the contrary, it outperformed almost every other major asset.

That's worth paying attention to.

That said, I'm not chasing altcoins here other than a few high-conviction plays in the Breakout Fortunes portfolio.

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Bitcoin remains the highest-conviction crypto asset I own, and the only one I'm willing to materially size up in my portfolios right now.

However, we have a few creative ways to make money with Bitcoin, particularly leveraged exposure to the already volatile asset class.

Bottom line: Bitcoin is starting to behave like an exit valve from political chaos, currency devaluation, and financial repression.

Bitcoin's best days may remain ahead if the world keeps moving in this direction.

Stay safe out there,

Robert

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