Stocks End Mixed Yesterday, Dow And S&P Reverse Early Losses To Close Higher Stocks closed mixed yesterday, but well off their intraday lows. All of the indexes opened sharply lower yesterday, but by the close, they bounced back with the Dow closing up 1%, the S&P 500 up by 0.55%, and the mid-cap S&P 400 up by 0.14%. The small-cap Russell 2000 and the Nasdaq ended in the red, but not by much, giving up -0.56% and -0.14% respectively. But that's a far cry from the -2.48% and -2.71% intraday drubbing they saw at their worst. Traders anxiously await the April 2nd tariff announcements by the White House. As well as the reaction from the countries that will be affected and what retaliatory measures they might take. Uncertainty reigns at the moment. Not just on what the tariffs will be, but also when they will go on. (And quite frankly, if we'll even get the full list of tariffs on Wednesday, or if we'll have to wait on some other date.) What we do know at this point is the following: the Administration is ready to levy a 25% tariff on imports from any country that purchases oil or gasoline from Venezuela; and that there'll be a 25% tariff on imported autos. While President Trump said he would "probably be more lenient than reciprocal," on tariffs, the aforementioned comments suggest otherwise. But we shall see. For example, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said, "I am optimistic that on April 2, some of the tariffs may not go on because a deal is pre-negotiated, or once countries receive their reciprocal tariff number, right after that, they will come to us and want to negotiate it down." But it's important to know that imports make up only about 15% of U.S. GDP. Moreover, it's highly unlikely that there will be a commensurate decrease in spending in relation to the tariffs. It's also unlikely that all of the tariffs will result in pass-through price increases. Additionally, there's also the substitution effect of people simply switching to domestic products. Investors are bracing for the worst. But, if the 'worst' doesn't happen, that could potentially lead to an upside surprise. In other news, yesterday's Chicago PMI report showed the Index at 47.6, up from last month's 45.5 and estimates for 44.1. And the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey showed the General Activity Index at -16.3, down from last month's -8.3. The Production Index, however, improved to 6.0 from last month's -9.1. Today we'll get the PMI Manufacturing Index, the ISM Manufacturing Index, Construction Spending, and the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey report (or JOLTS for short). The jobs report everybody is really waiting for though, is Friday's Employment Situation report. Last month's (February) unemployment rate came in at 4.1%, with 151,000 new jobs being created. This month's report is expected to show the unemployment rate at 4.2%, with 131,000 new jobs being created. One of the big questions for this report will be the potential influence of fired government workers. Last month's report only showed -10,000 job declines by the Federal Government. A smaller number than feared given all of the talk of government worker layoffs. Although, the February report only included a portion of the first half of the month, the additional layoff announcements in the back half of the month, not to mention the first half of March, are likely to show up in Friday's numbers. But until then, the big news will be tariffs. And that's on Wednesday. See you tomorrow,  Kevin Matras
Executive Vice President, Zacks Investment Research | 
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