Folks, the tariffs have been an all-consuming news event. And for good reason. This situation is evolving by the day – and sometimes by the hour. Because of that, it's hard to predict what will happen next.

China Looks Like It Was the Main Target All Along By Pete Carmasino, chief market strategist, Chaikin Analytics Folks, the tariffs have been an all-consuming news event. And for good reason. This situation is evolving by the day – and sometimes by the hour. Because of that, it's hard to predict what will happen next. Beyond that, the topic is very politically charged. But I urge you not to fall into the politics trap when it comes to investing... Looking at things through only a political lens is a weakness. And it's one that the markets will punish you for. So I do my best to stick to the data. I would rather be an umpire – just calling balls and strikes. I'm lucky to be able to talk to our founder Marc Chaikin almost daily about what's happening. We can have spirited debates. But we generally come to similar conclusions. When it comes to the tariffs, I felt early on in this process that China was probably the real target. I thought it was likely that the global tariffs were more about China than anything else. You're probably aware of something called "collective punishment"... Recommended Links: Until Midnight Tonight: Dump Stocks for This Trade War Strategy? More pain could soon be on the way and it could be worse than anything we've seen so far this year. To respond, a Wall Street veteran is sharing the ONE strategy that once made him 20 times his money on a single trade – right as U.S. stocks collapsed. (He also saw additional gains like 30 times his money in 15 days and 34 times his money in six days – without touching options.) Until midnight tonight, see this "trade war lifeline" here. Trump's Next Target (Executive Order 14154) Within his first 100 days, President Donald Trump has signed 112 executive orders... laid off or fired 60,000 federal workers... and unveiled an unprecedentedly massive tariff plan. But what he's about to do next will shock even his most senior staffers. Find out what it could mean for you and your money here. An Ultimate Goal to Single Out China  It's often ineffective, and many folks think it can be cruel. It's basically the punishment of a group for the actions of one person within it. The idea is that if it truly is only one person causing problems, they will likely cause problems again. This allows for the group to try to regulate their behavior. So if the group sees one person causing problems, it tries to convince that person to stop. Again, you can argue whether it's good or bad... That isn't the point here. But if this is done with a twist, it just might work. Now this is speculation on my part, but a twist seems to have just occurred with President Donald Trump's Wednesday announcement for a 90-day pause on the bigger tariffs on everyone but the "troublemaker" – China. So, he only punished the world (the group) to not selectively call out China for bad behavior. Fentanyl, unfair trade practices, currency manipulation... whatever it is doesn't matter. Trump took a gamble that China would put up a fight, and it did. China immediately retaliated and added that it would not relent. On Tuesday, the Chinese government even said that it would "fight to the finish." And as the week went on, the U.S. and China were still increasing tariffs on each other. That all opened the door for Trump to single China out as the main problem. To me, it looks like he was trying to show the rest of the world how China operates. So what did we see last week? Trump lifted the bigger tariffs from the rest of the word and put only the 10% back, with one exception – China. Not only did he not lift the China tariffs... he increased them. The punishment can escalate now that China chose to fight back. So, now what? Despite a Better 'Perceived Outcome' After Last Week, Stay Cautious Well, the markets initially took off as the larger fears of a global tariff regime subsided. After Trump's announcement Wednesday afternoon, the broad market S&P 500 Index closed higher by more than 9.5%. And the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index finished the day with an incredible 12.2% gain. Since then, the markets have been digesting the reality of the situation with China after the developments. And we obviously aren't out of the woods yet... The U.S. and other countries still have to negotiate. But now that we know what happens if the actors don't find common ground, I think they will be able to do just that – and soon. A 90-day pause gives countries time to breathe. It also gives companies time to renegotiate with suppliers. You can imagine that those who rely on China for products might be helping with the negotiations. They are likely pressuring China to relent, or they will have to find a new supplier. (This is speculation, but it's logical in the context of what we've seen happening recently.) Markets will move according to both actual and perceived outcomes. After what we saw last week, the perceived outcome looked a little better. But as earnings season starts up, I'm worried that the guidance will be unclear. So that means entering this time of the year with extra caution. Good investing, Pete Carmasino Market View Major Indexes and Notable Sectors     # Hld:     Bullish     Neutral     Bearish Dow 30 +1.57% 1 22 7 S&P 500 +1.78% 38 314 148 Nasdaq +1.84% 2 70 28 Small Caps +1.46% 124 1249 520 Bonds +0.54% Materials +2.97% 1 8 17 — According to the Chaikin Power Bar, Small Cap stocks and Large Cap stocks are Bearish. Major indexes are mixed. *  *  *  * Sector Tracker Sector movement over the last 5 days Information Technology +8.76% Industrials +6.55% Financial +5.59% Communication +4.63% Consumer Discretionary +3.79% Materials +3.36% Consumer Staples +2.41% Utilities +2.4% Health Care +1.18% Energy +0.17% Real Estate -0.1% *  *  *  * Industry Focus Insurance Services 7 46 0 Over the past 6 months, the Insurance subsector (KIE) has outperformed the S&P 500 by +6.30%. Its Power Bar ratio, which measures future potential, is Very Strong, with more Bullish than Bearish stocks. It is currently ranked #1 of 21 subsectors and has moved up 1 slot over the past week. Top Stocks PGR The Progressive Corp PLMR Palomar Holdings, In WRB W. R. Berkley Corpor *  *  *  * Top Movers Gainers MPWR +9.99% NEM +7.91% HII +7.39% MRNA +6.94% MOS +6.65% Losers TXN -5.75% APTV -3.04% ODFL -2.88% NCLH -2.22% PARA -2.11% *  *  *  * Earnings Report Earnings Surprises MS Morgan Stanley Q1 $2.60 Beat by $0.39 BLK BlackRock, Inc. Q1 $11.30 Beat by $1.17 JPM JPMorgan Chase & Co. Q1 $5.07 Beat by $0.43 BK The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation Q1 $1.58 Beat by $0.09 WFC Wells Fargo & Company Q1 $1.28 Beat by $0.06 *  *  *  * You have received this e-mail as part of your subscription to PowerFeed. If you no longer want to receive e-mails from PowerFeed, click here. You're receiving this e-mail at indra21poetra@gmail.com. For questions about your account or to speak with customer service, call +1 (877) 697-6783 (U.S.), 9 a.m. - 5 p.m. Eastern time or e-mail info@chaikinanalytics.com. Please note: The law prohibits us from giving personalized financial advice. © 2025 Chaikin Analytics, LLC. All rights reserved. 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