| Swan Dive — April 29, 2025 America's Cold-Turkey Economy Addison Wiggin The phrase "First 100 Days" traces back to Franklin D. Roosevelt’s frenetic early presidency in 1933. Amid the Great Depression, FDR unleashed a blitz of legislation to stabilize the economy.
Ever since, the first 100 days have become a political measuring stick—often more symbolic than substantial—for presidential momentum. When Roosevelt took office, he used that time to calm markets, rescue banks, and arguably save capitalism itself.
In contrast, Donald Trump’s first 100 days of his second term have been a case study in shock therapy: a cold-turkey withdrawal from the debt-fueled stimulus and cheap imports that kept America's consumer economy afloat for decades. Main Street — the 70% of U.S. GDP built on household consumption — is taking the first and hardest hits.
Trump’s withdrawal from debt-fueled growth and cheap imports will likely hit Main Street first — and hardest. No sugar-coating, no warm-up, no gradual taper. Just a sudden wrenching shift away from the habits America has been nursing since the end of World War II.
What happens when you rip away the financial crutches propping up the world's largest economy? We're finding out — and fast. Let’s take a look:
 And now, legendary tech investor Ian King has just uncovered the real reason why. Buried in Section 429 of his bombshell lawsuit against Sam Altman and OpenAI…
It’s a revelation that could tear the stock market in two and cement Elon Musk as the world’s first trillionaire.
What happens next will define the entire American economy for decades… creating huge winners and devastating losers. Which side will you be on?
Click here now to make sure you aren’t on the wrong side.
📉 Markets Worst Start Since 1993 If you’ve been checking your portfolio like a nervous gambler checks his chips at 2 a.m., you’re not alone. The markets have logged their worst start to a presidential term since Bill Clinton’s rocky ride in 1993.  The Dow is down 7.8%, the S&P 500 has fallen 9%, and the Nasdaq? If it were a horse, the humane thing would be a blindfold and a last cigarette. 🏦 CEO Confidence Collapses, Recession Fears Surge CEO confidence—once as hearty as a drunken sailor—has collapsed to levels not seen since the post-9/11 recession scare.
Corporate leaders are slashing forecasts, hoarding cash, and quietly prepping for a 2025–26 slowdown.  Recession forecasts have risen sharply over the last month.  Consumer spending is retreating, and the cracks in the labor market are beginning to look like canyons. 🧹🛠️ Rise of the Part-Time Economy: Multi-Job Holders Boom The ghost of Biden’s economy is lingering large over Trump’s tariff restructuring plan.
The so-called "strong labor market" is masking a weaker, uglier truth: a surge in part-time and multi-job workers.  Part-time work has made up a significant part of the labor force since the Global Financial Crisis, rising again following the pandemic.  Nearly 1 in 5 Americans now holds two or more jobs just to tread water. That’s not, umn, prosperity.  Additionally, January’s job numbers were quietly revised down by 18,000 to just +125,000. Overall, nonfarm payrolls have now been revised lower in 10 of the last 13 months.
Meanwhile, the personal debt burden is soaring: consumer credit card balances have risen by $430 billion in just three years.  Rejection rates for new credit card applications have also hit 22% — a 12-year high — meaning even as households pile on debt, more Americans are being turned away.
U.S. households aren’t keeping pace with their spending. 🚢 The End of Cheap Stuff Remember the snarled ports and toilet paper wars of 2020? Don’t laugh just yet. Trump's 145% tariffs on Chinese imports have triggered a nosedive in US-bound cargo.
Only 40 ships are now crossing the Pacific, down 40% from earlier this month. The Port of Los Angeles forecasts that arrivals will plunge 35% within two weeks. Walmart, Home Depot, and Target executives warned Trump directly: canceled orders today mean barren shelves tomorrow.
Spot container shipping rates have cratered 23% compared to last year, and both imports and exports are collapsing.
Dockworkers, truckers, and retailers are bracing for a long, grim summer. Even the International Longshore & Warehouse Union called the tariffs "a direct attack on the working class."
In a development that would make George Orwell smirk, Amazon ($AMZN) has begun displaying the cost impact of Trump’s tariffs right on product pages. That blender you didn’t need?
It’s now 17% more expensive, thanks to your patriotic duty to pay more at checkout. 💵 ₿ Dollar Index Slips, Bitcoin Finds a Bid The U.S. Dollar Index slipped 0.8% this morning, notching its fourth consecutive weekly loss. Tariffs often boost the U.S. dollar short-term, as global uncertainty drives demand for dollar-denominated assets.
Yet over time, tariffs strain global trade, dampen growth, and fuel inflationary pressures. The dollar index may spike during trade wars but risks longer-term erosion as global confidence in U.S. policy weakens.
Investors, rattled by trade disruptions and recession whispers, are rotating into alternatives. Bitcoin (BTC) has rallied for the past two weeks to over $94,000… fueled partly by capital flight out of traditional currencies and partly because global central banks have opened the money spigots in anticipation of global tariff shock.
Gold bounced off a three-day low, back to $3320.
– Addison P.S. On Grey Swan Live!, Thursday, May 1, 2025 at 11 am, Mark Jeftovic will join us to break down how this sudden cold-turkey withdrawal from debt injections and cheap imports could ignite the next Grey Swan event — and how the global monetary system will weather the great Trump reset, including rapid adaptation of bitcoin into banks. Watch your inbox for access.
As always, your cheerful reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)
How did we get here? Find out in these riveting reads: Demise of the Dollar, Financial Reckoning Day, and Empire of Debt — all three books are now available in their third post-pandemic editions. You might enjoy one or all three. 
(Or… simply pre-order Empire of Debt: We Came, We Saw, We Borrowed, now available at Amazon and Barnes & Noble or if you prefer one of these sites: Bookshop.org, Books-A-Million or Target.)
Please send your comments, reactions, opprobrium, vitriol and praise to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com |
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