Stocks Closed Lower Yesterday, But Most Indexes Are On Pace To Close Higher For The Week Stocks closed moderately lower yesterday after giving up morning gains. Although, they were trekking back towards breakeven near the close, and just falling short. Wednesday's FOMC Announcement, which lifted stocks after friendly-enough comments by the Fed on GDP growth and inflation, were not enough to buoy stocks yesterday. But the encouraging comments still stand. And should provide some support. Specifically on full-year 2025 GDP forecasts, which they put at 1.7%. Even though it was a slight downshift from their December estimate of 2.1%, it was a welcome contrast to the GDPNow Q1 estimate of -1.8%. On interest rate cuts, in spite of pausing yet again, and signaling their desire to wait for more clarity on the Trump Administration's tariffs and fiscal policy, they only increased their year-end inflation outlook by two-tenths of a percent to 2.7%. And they are still expecting to cut rates 2 more times this year. They also calmed worries over a recession with Fed Chair Jerome Powell noting that, historically, at any given time, there is a 1-in-4 probability of a recession in the next 12 months. And he followed up by saying, "a number of forecasters have generally raised...the possibility of a recession somewhat," "so it has moved up, but it's not high." And lastly, in regard to the labor market, they see the unemployment rate at 4.4% in 2025, up from December's 2025 estimate of 4.3% (and February's print of 4.1%). But that's still quite low. That too helped calm concerns given the recent recession talk, not to mention the recent layoffs to the Federal workforce. I contend, the market was due for a correction anyway, after soaring too far, too fast after the election. We were due for a correction, and the tariff uncertainty was the perfect backdrop to catalyze that. But with progress on inflation having resumed (as evidenced by the latest inflation reports), and aggregate S&P 500 earnings estimates pointing towards solid gains (Q1 EPS growth is forecast at 6.1%, Q2 at 10.3%, Q3 at 9.8%, and Q4 at 11.7%), I'm expecting the market to regroup and begin their climb to new all-time highs. As I've mentioned before, I'm expecting another year of 20% gains. (In fact, I'm expecting 3 more years of 20% gains per annum.) In other news, it was reported that the EU will delay imposing their first round of retaliatory tariffs against the U.S. until mid-April, rather than April 2. No doubt, waiting to see what the U.S. does, given their previous delays, and the negotiations taking place. I'm reminded of what U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the other day: "I am optimistic that on April 2, some of the tariffs may not go on because a deal is pre-negotiated, or once countries receive their reciprocal tariff number, right after that, they will come to us and want to negotiate it down." Regardless, the tariffs don't appear to be the endgame, but instead a means to an end, which ultimately is fair trade (and freer trade). Today, there's not much on the economic report docket. But it is Quadruple Witching, which means index futures, stock futures, index options, and stock options all expire. So, there could be some extra volatility today. With one more day to go, most of the major indexes are in the green for the week, with only the Nasdaq missing out (albeit just barely by 0.35%). So, it won't take much today to get all of the indexes in the green for the week. Best,  Kevin Matras
Executive Vice President, Zacks Investment Research | 
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