January 8, 2025
This Chart Points the Way Higher for Gold
Dear Subscriber,
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By Sean Brodrick |
A great gold grab is going on right now, and it’s picking up steam.
It’s not a bunch of bank robbers — I’m talking about the big central banks themselves.
And it’s another piece of the puzzle that will send gold to my targets of $3,100 by mid-2025 and over $6,900 longer-term.
And can you make money on this? Oh boy, you can! I’ll tell you how.
First, let me show you a chart that proves my point.
You probably know that the world’s central banks have been loading up on gold for the past couple of years. The November data just came in. And the central banks’ gold grab just hit the accelerator.
See how those bars are rising on the right side? According to the World Gold Council data, central banks added a net 53 metric tonnes to their official holdings in November.
While Poland led the way with a purchase of 21 metric tonnes, I’m interested in the fact that China made its first gold purchase (5 tonnes) since April.
If China is dipping its toes back into the gold market, that could set sparks under gold prices.
Why? Well, China passed India as the world's number one consumer of the precious metal in 2023.
In 2024, China’s central bank took a months-long break from gold buying but still accumulated 34 metric tonnes through November, raising its total official gold holdings to 2,264 tonnes.
And China is accumulating all this gold for a reason …
It chafes against U.S. dollar hegemony, which Uncle Sam wields like a club against countries that displease it. China wants more monetary independence.
At the same, incoming President Trump is promising higher across-the-board tariffs on China. A trade war looms!
I believe these hard facts put China’s gold accumulation back on the front burner.
It’s Not Just China!
Here are some other tidbits from the latest Central Bank gold report …
- I told you that the National Bank of Poland increased its gold reserves by 21 to 448 tonnes. Interestingly, gold now accounts for almost 18% of its total reserves. That sure sounds like a lot for a small country. But can you blame Poland? There is a shooting war on its border as Russia invades Ukraine, and gold is the safest of safe havens in troubled times.
- India is playing catch-up with China, buying 8 tonnes in November, raising its purchases to 73 tonnes in 2024 and total gold reserves to 876 tonnes.
- Countries like Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan may be out of the limelight, but they’re buying gold hand over fist. Uzbekistan added 9 tonnes in November, raising its total gold holdings to 382 tonnes. Kazakhstan added 5 tonnes, raising its total holdings to 295 tonnes.
The list of buyers goes on. Central banks around the world are loading up on gold.
I believe it’s because they can see the cracks in the geopolitical global order. They want real money to support their financial stability if things go bad.
And that brings me back to my forecasts for gold: $3,100 by mid-2025 and over $6,900 longer-term. So, how can you play it?
Miners Are Dirt-Cheap
You could buy the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), which holds a basket of physical gold.
Gold had a great year last year. Every stock picker on Wall Street points out that the S&P 500 gained 23.3% last year.
Well, GLD and gold beat that, rallying 26.6%!
Here’s a performance chart of last year’s action to see what I mean …
On the other hand, if you have the appetite for more risk and reward, let me tell you a secret: Wall Street despises gold miners right now. And there’s your opportunity.
Yesterday, I ran a screen of U.S.-listed gold miners — not explorers, but actual producing miners that pull hard money out of the ground on a daily basis.
A full dozen of them are trading at less than book value. That’s absurd.
These are profitable businesses … and getting ever more profitable, the higher the price of gold goes. And gold IS going higher.
That makes the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) — which holds a basket of leading gold miners — a real bargain.
Looking at the chart, it sure looks like the GDX is putting in a double bottom right now. You can buy now, or if you’re hesitant, wait until it exceeds the December high of 37.82.
Buy now or buy later. But don’t miss out on the rip-roaring rally in gold and miners.
All the best,
Sean
P.S. If income is important to you, GDX also pays a dividend. GLD doesn’t. Though, at 1.2% annually, it’s not a very large one.
But my colleague Marija Matic has a way to collect major yields from another booming asset class that’s not normally associated with income.
On Tuesday, she will lay out exactly how her strategy has already delivered supersized yields with APYs of 76%, 92% and even 101%. Yep, an income rate high enough to cover the initial investment!
You can grab your seat for this special presentation here.
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