Jeff Clark says the market is due for a rally … Louis Navellier sees major earnings growth this year … but the 10-year Treasury yield is a problem … how to catch a replay of this morning’s event with Keith Kaplan Get ready for a market rally. That’s the quick takeaway from veteran trader Jeff Clark. For newer Digest readers, Jeff is a 40-year market veteran who profitably trades the markets regardless of direction – up, down, or sideways. He uses a suite of momentum indicators and moving averages to provide clues about where stocks are going next. While Jeff’s overall 2025 analysis leans bearish, his shorter-term forecast calls for a rally. From his Market Minute update yesterday: Over the past several weeks we’ve pointed out reasons to be bearish on the stock market in the months ahead. But before we get all ramped up and ready to short stocks for 2025… the market is set to rally in the short term. The PMOBUYALL is a momentum indicator that fluctuates between zero and 100. When it gets to zero, most of the fuel for a large decline has been used up. Traders should look to buy stocks into any additional weakness. When the PMOBUYALL hits 100, most of the fuel for a rally has been used up. Traders should look to sell stocks and/or establish short positions into any additional strength. To make sure we’re on the same page, the PMOBUYALL is an indicator combining the "PMO" (Price Momentum Oscillator) with a "Buy All" signal. It generates a buy signal whenever the PMO indicator reaches a level associated with a strong potential entry point for a trade. Jeff notes that the PMOBUYALL indicator isn’t an exact timing tool. Rather, it gets you in the ballpark of when a reversal might occur (at which point you’d use additional indicators to fine tune your entry/exit). But we’re in that ballpark today, and this has Jeff looking for short-term bullish opportunities. Back to his update: The following chart of the PMOBUYALL can help explain why, even though my intermediate- and longer-term outlooks for the stock market are bearish, stocks are nearing a short-term rally phase… 
The PMOBUYALL dropped as low as zero five times in 2024. All five times this happened the S&P 500 was near a short-term low. A rally started each time the MACD turned higher when the PMOBUYALL was in this condition. The PMOBUYALL hit zero about two weeks ago. It has been stuck on the zero line for several days. Now, the MACD indicator is starting to turn higher. If the current situation plays out like the five previous situations did, then we should see a decent rally get started any day now. Jeff’s guess is that the S&P could add 100 – 140 points over just a few days as it works off current oversold conditions. But after that rally, Jeff expects a deeper correction sometime during Q1. | Recommended Link | | | | According to a campaign official, President Trump’s first day will be “like nothing you’ve seen in history.” That’s why legendary investor Louis Navellier, who correctly predicted Trump’s win… Is now issuing this urgent warning about Trump’s inauguration. |  | | Louis Navellier is more bullish than Jeff as he looks out across 2025, and the reason boils down to earnings growth For newer Digest readers, Louis is one of the early pioneers of using predictive algorithms to scour the markets for quantitatively strong stocks. Forbes even named him the “King of Quants.” As a quantitative investor, he has strict investment rules that are rooted in cold, impartial numbers. And at the heart of these numbers lies earnings strength. So, how are earnings forecasts coming in as we look ahead to Q4 earnings season that begins next week? And what about earnings farther out in 2025? Here’s Louis from yesterday’s Accelerated Profits Weekly Profit Guide: The fourth-quarter earnings announcement season officially kicks off next week, with several big financial institutions scheduled to release results. And based on early projections, the fourth quarter will kick off several quarters of double-digit earnings growth for the S&P 500. FactSet currently anticipates that the S&P 500 will achieve average earnings growth of 11.9% in the fourth quarter. That represents the fastest earnings growth in three years. But what’s even more exciting is that earnings momentum will hit the gas in each of the four quarters of 2025. FactSet expects average earnings growth of 11.9%, 11.6%, 15.2% and 16.6% in the next four quarters, respectively. Calendar year 2025 earnings are forecast to soar 14.8% year-over-year, up from current estimates for 9.5% in 2024. Simply put, earnings are set to accelerate in 2025 – and positive results from our fundamentally superior stocks should dropkick and drive their shares higher this year. We’re encouraged by these forecasts. Regular Digest readers know that we’ve been concerned by many market valuation indicators that point toward nosebleed valuations today. Surging earnings would relieve pressure from those stretched valuations, a bit like letting air out of an overinflated balloon, lowering the risk of a “pop.” However, one potential stumbling block to this bullish outcome is the climbing 10-year Treasury yield Back to Louis: December was a rocky month for the stock market. Rising Treasury yields squashed all hopes for a yearend rally, as the 10-year Treasury yield jumped from 4.17% on December 6 to 4.6% on December 30. In turn, all of the major indices declined sharply in December, with the S&P 500 down 2.5%. The 10-year Treasury yield has continued rising here in January. As I write Wednesday morning, it’s at 4.685%, its highest level since last April. 
Source: TradingView The 10-year Treasury yield jumped higher yesterday after the latest economic data revealed stubborn services inflation. Here’s CNBC: U.S. Treasury yields rose on Tuesday after economic data suggested services inflation is proving hard to tame. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed six basis points at 4.677%. The 2-year Treasury yield gained three basis points 4.299%... The moves came after the December ISM services price index came in at 64.4, up from 58.2 in November. Meanwhile, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed a higher-than-expected number of openings. The combination of rising prices and a high level of job openings could cause traders to dial back expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025. Meanwhile, this morning’s jobs data isn’t relieving any pressure as I write. The ADP jobs report showed that US private-sector hiring slowed in December. While a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a rise of 140,000, the number came in at just 122,000. The softer employment data show how the Fed is caught between a weakening labor market and rising inflation. We’ll get more insights into this tension on Friday when we get the official U.S. unemployment report. Beyond yesterday’s economic data, Louis attributes the rise in the 10-year Treasury yield to aggressive bond vigilantes and this week’s bond auctions Back to Louis: Bond vigilantes are still worried about the deficit and the deficit ballooning under Trump, as well as Trump 2.0’s tariffs re-igniting inflation. So, that is weighing on the market… Then, there’s a big Treasury financing this week. It’s imperative that we have good bond auctions. It’s imperative that our new Treasury Secretary manages these bond auctions better than Janet Yellen had. Some of the interest rate uptick is due to her mismanagement. So, hopefully [better auction management] will get us some relief. As to those bond auctions, yesterday, the monthly auction of 10-year notes drew the highest yield since 2007. From Bloomberg: The $39 billion auction was awarded at 4.68%, slightly higher than indicated by its level at 1 p.m. New York time, the bidding deadline… The auction result was the highest for newly auctioned securities since August 2007. This certainly wasn’t a resounding win as far as bond auctions go. Overall, despite his general bullishness, Louis pulls no punches about the relationship between treasury yields and stocks: The only thing that can derail this market is the bond market. We’ll be monitoring and will report back. | Recommended Link | | | | A new way to potentially double your portfolio in 2025 by predicting the biggest jumps on 5,000 stocks, BEFORE they occur. And how a “disconnect” in today’s market has opened the best opportunity in 20 years to apply this breakthrough new strategy today. Including 2 free recommendations in a historic event backed by 3 Wall Street legends. Watch now, before it goes offline. |  | | Finally, this morning, thousands of investors turned out to hear how to profit from predictable, repeatable stock patterns Keith Kaplan, the CEO of our corporate partner, TradeSmith, went live to provide a walk-through of TradeSmith’s new Seasonality Tool. This quant-based market system reveals hidden, recurring patterns in the stock market that show the best times to buy and sell specific stocks based on historical data. Here’s Keith with just one of the associated benefits: This can allow us to recommend trades more confidently than ever before in 2025 – because we know which stocks will offer us high-probability trades months ahead of time. This morning, Keith walked through all the details, provided the results of years’ worth of back-testing, and showed how investors can put the Seasonality Tool to work in their own portfolios. The early feedback from thousands of attendees is incredibly positive. And for good reason – this is one of the most effective ways we know of to pull money out of the market. You simply align your wealth with what history shows are repeatable, high-probability profit windows. To catch a free replay of Keith’s presentation this morning, check it out right here. Coming full circle… Despite the market’s wobbles in recent weeks, Jeff tells us to look for a broad market rally though he remains skeptical about 2025’s overall performance… Meanwhile, Louis is bullish on 2025 thanks to robust earnings growth forecasts but is eyeing the 10-year Treasury yield. If it doesn’t stop climbing, this bull market faces a real challenge. We’ll keep you updated as these experts update their analysis. Have a good evening, Jeff Remsburg | 
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