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Dividend Investor Insights: 5 Steel Investments to Consider to Gird Portfolios

5 Steel Investments to Consider to Gird Portfolios

01/17/2025

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Five steel investments to consider to gird portfolios offer ways to profit from economic growth.

The five steel investments feature two exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and three stocks. The handful of paths to profit from steel can provide staying power to portfolios that could use a bit of diversity.

The steel sector may face slack demand, especially due to economic slowdowns in China and other parts of the world, so it certainly is not a get-rich-quick investment. However, mining equities tend to perform strongly during the winter months starting in October, based on almost three decades of seasonality analysis.

However, that seasonal uptick failed to materialize in 2024, according to a recent report from Citi Research analysts. December particularly performs strongly compared to other months on average but fell short of the norm at the end of last year, Citi Research wrote.

Five Steel Investments to Consider to Gird Portfolios: Strong Survive

The seasonality effect tends to be strong and, at times, can overcome the effects of any weakness in commodity or company fundamentals. Successfully investing in steel can come from identifying and buying shares in the sector's strongest funds and stocks.

"However, this time around this effect seems to be absent and the miners underperformed during the last couple of months driven by several factors," Citi Research assessed.

However, steel can strengthen portfolios, if the right selections are made. Among the many funds that feature steel, two stood out to Bob Carlson, who heads the Retirement Watch investment newsletter and is the inventor of his proprietary IRA calculator.

Bob Carlson, editor of Retirement Watch and Paul Dykewicz.

Five Steel Investments to Consider to Gird Portfolios: SLX

There is s a pure-play ETF on steel, VanEck Steel (SLX), which has been around more than 10 years, Carlson told me. The fund is about 60% in U.S. equities and 40% in non-U.S. equities. About 61% of the fund recently was in the 10 largest positions.

The biggest positions in the fund recently were Rio Tinto (OTCMKTS: RTNTF), Vale (NYSE: VALE), Nucor (NYSE : NUE), Steel Dynamics (NASDAQ: STLD) and Carpenter Technology (NYSE: CRS). Income investors will appreciate that the dividend yield recently reached 3.55%.

Cautious investors should be aware that the returns for SLX can be "very volatile," Carlson said. SLX lost 17.93% in 2024 after gaining more than 31% in 2023, he added.

The fund is up 3.56% so far in 2025. But it fell 7.38% in the past three months and 10.40% during the last 12 months.

Courtesy of stockcharts.com

Five Steel Investments to Consider to Gird Portfolios: XME

Investors who want a more diversified portfolio should look at SPDR S&P Metals & Mining (XME), Carlson counseled. The fund is invested only in U.S. equities with about 75% of the stocks classified as in the Basic Materials sector, while 13% is in the energy sector and almost 12% is in Industrials, Carlson continued.

About 51% of the fund is in the 10 largest positions. The five biggest holdings in XME recently were Carpenter Technology, United States Steel (NYSE: X), ATI Inc. (NYSE: ATI), Newmont (NYSE: NEM) and Alcoa (NYSE: AA).

XME recently had a current dividend yield of 0.65%. It lost 6.75% in the last three months. But it is up 5.36% so far in 2025 and 4.59% over the last 12 months.

Courtesy of stockcharts.com

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Five Steel Investments to Consider to Gird Portfolios: STLD

Five steel stocks to consider buying are viewed as premier providers in the sector by analysts at Citi Research. There are several reasons miners underperformed during the last few months and the weakness partly is due to slowed steel demand in China. Weakening Chinese lead indicators include a property and infrastructure slowdown, tariff uncertainties from Trump's presidency, slack outlook for steel and limited seasonality support, Citi Research opined.

The investment firm's commodity analysts are broadly neutral to bearish on most stocks in the sector. Across base metals, the U.S. tariff policy, China economic headwinds and rising developed market debt service burdens derail a meaningful global manufacturing recovering beyond 2025, Citi wrote. Citi Research is neutral on bulk metals due to likely demand softness.

But the investment firm rates Steel Dynamics (NASDAQ: STLD), of Fort Wayne, Indiana, as a buy.

"For STLD, we expect a relatively greater benefit from higher hot-rolled coil (HRC) and coated steel prices, and argue it is unique among peers given its nearly complete aluminum rolling mill project," Citi Research wrote. "STLD should see free cash flow inflect in 2025 as it completes its growth capex cycle." Citi Research foresees a a near-term rally in HRC driven by: (1) seasonally strong Q1 demand, (2) the resurgence of non-residential construction, (3) a decline in imports and (4) higher scrap costs. Tariffs could also help, the firm added.

Chart courtesy of www.stockcharts.com

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Five Steel Investments to Consider to Gird Portfolios: NUE

Charlotte, North Carolina-based Nucor Corp. NYSE: NUE) gained a buy rating and a price objective of $160 per share from Citi Research. The company is a previous successful recommendation of Mark Skousen, PhD, and Jim Woods, who team up to co-lead the Fast Money Alert advisory service.

Skousen also writes a monthly investment newsletter called Forecasts & Strategies, while Woods launched a newsletter on Jan. 17 named Investing Edge. The 7.0x multiple of NUE is above the target multiple used for integrated peers (6.5x for CLF/X) to recognize its highly variable cost structure, diversified product mix, strong volume growth potential (from multiple projects underway) and investment grade balance sheet with a disciplined capital return policy (minimum of 40% of net income), Citi wrote.

Paul Dykewicz and Mark Skousen, editor of Forecast & Strategies.

Risks to the price objective are: 1) lower steel price and higher scrap costs squeezing margins, 2) weaker than expected demand especially in construction markets, 3) project start-up delays and cost overruns, and 4) M&A's which could be dilutive in the near-term. Outperformance could come from 1) higher than expected steel prices, 2) lower than expected input costs, 3) lower import volumes, 4) more favorable trade policies, and 5) a stronger than expected economy, the analysts wrote.

Chart courtesy of www.stockcharts.com

Five Steel Investments to Consider to Gird Portfolios: CMC

London-based Commercial Metals Co. (NYSE: CMC) is rated a Citigroup buy with a $69 per share price objective by Citi Research. That is based on a 7.0 times multiple that is higher than its historical trading average of 6.1 times to reflect the market rerating, Citi wrote.

"However, the 7.0 times multiple is below the target multiples used for mini-mill peers (7.5-8.0x for STLD/NUE) given its less diverse products / end-markets," Citi Research reported. "This is partly offset by CMC's leverage to infrastructure demand, which is set to see strong growth from a significant increase in federal spending."

CMC's management forecasts around 1.5mn ton per annum of incremental demand against a 9-10mn U.S. rebar market. Outperformance to Citigroup's price objective for CMC are: 1) better-than-expected construction/reshoring demand, 2) higher steel pricing, 3) better-than-expected pricing power in global long products that support pricing and limit imports, 4) additional trade relief and 5) cash deployment for organic or inorganic growth, Citi wrote.

Downside risks to Citi's price objective are: 1) sluggish demand due to delay in federal funding and/or tightened credit availability for private projects, 2) lower steel pricing, 3) execution risk related to Tensar and new micro-mills, 4) any rollback of trade relief, particularly related to Section 232, 5) threat of lower priced imports and 6) potential medium term oversupply from various new entrants in the domestic rebar market.

Chart courtesy of www.stockcharts.com

Five Steel Investments to Consider to Gird Portfolios: Summary

From a macro view, Citi expects geopolitical tension, foreign exchange (FX) volatility and resource nationalism in 2025. Tension already is arising as the United States seeks to block the proposed acquisition of U.S. Steel by Nippon Steel Corp. With that backdrop, Citi wrote the resource nationalism theme likely will continue prominently in 2025.

Sincerely,

Paul Dykewicz, Editor
DividendInvestor.com

About Paul Dykewicz:

Paul Dykewicz is an accomplished, award-winning journalist who has written for Dow Jones, the Wall Street Journal, Investor’s Business Daily, USA Today, Seeking Alpha, GuruFocus and other publications and websites. Paul is the editor of StockInvestor.com and DividendInvestor.com, a writer for both websites and a columnist. He further is the editorial director of Eagle Financial Publications in Washington, D.C., where he edits monthly investment newsletters, time-sensitive trading alerts, free e-letters and other investment reports. Paul also is the author of an inspirational book, "Holy Smokes! Golden Guidance from Notre Dame's Championship Chaplain", with a foreword by former national championship-winning football coach Lou Holtz. Follow Paul on Twitter @PaulDykewicz.

 
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