This "Trump Effect" Is Not Priced Into the Crypto Market Yet |
During President Donald Trump's first term, he mentioned the stock market over 60 times on Twitter (now X) in the first 15 months of his administration. |
To President Trump, the stock market was a barometer of his own success. If the market did well, he believed he did well, too. |
Every new stock market high was an opportunity to tout his performance as the nation's chief executive. |
According to some studies, President Trump sent over 8,000 tweets that had measurable impacts on major indexes like the S&P 500 during his first term. |
Here's an example of a tweet President Trump sent on November 7, 2017, the day after the S&P 500 hit a then all-time high of 2,597. |
 | Source: X |
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Like many highly successful, driven entrepreneurs, President Trump likes to take credit for his perceived wins. And tweets like the one above show us he uses the success of the stock market as a personal benchmark of his own presidential success. |
But when President Trump returns to the White House on January 20, I don't believe the stock market will be the only barometer of economic success he'll be tied to. |
Instead, I believe another barometer will be the crypto market. And this new "Trump effect" isn't being priced into the market. |
That is why if you're worried about the recent pullback in crypto prices, don't be. |
The "Trump Effect" is about to kick in. And it will create the biggest bull market we have ever seen in crypto. |
Becoming the First Pro-Crypto President |
Over the years, President Trump has converted from a bitcoin skeptic to a bitcoin believer. |
I personally have been an eyewitness to his conversion… |
In July, I attended the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville. President Trump made a surprise campaign appearance at the conference. Below is a photo I took during his speech. It was standing room only. |
 | Photo by Houston Molnar |
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From the start, it was clear President Trump was trying to gain the support of millions of crypto investors. |
Three moments got huge roars from the crowd. |
● The first came when President Trump said if re-elected, he'd fire Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chair Gary Gensler on day one. Gensler has long been on an anti-crypto crusade, including suing major exchanges like Coinbase and Kraken. After the election, Gensler announced his resignation. |
● The second roar from the crowd came when President Trump vowed to make the United States the "crypto capital of the planet and the bitcoin superpower of the world." |
● The third, and arguably most important, moment came when President Trump pledged to retain 100% of bitcoin the U.S. government holds or acquires in the future and place it in a strategic reserve. |
So far, he's kept true to his pledge to support bitcoin and digital assets in general by building the most pro-crypto administration in history. |
Let's run through them, starting with Vice President-elect J.D. Vance. |
● Vance is a strong supporter of crypto. He's been actively involved in drafting legislation that would improve the regulatory framework for digital assets. And he personally owns more than $250,000 in bitcoin. |
● President Trump selected Paul Atkins to replace Gensler as SEC chair. |
Atkins has been openly supportive of bitcoin and cryptocurrency. He has served as co-chair of the Digital Chamber's Token Alliance, an organization that aims to accelerate the adoption of digital assets, since 2017. |
So, an Atkins-led SEC will likely encourage innovation in crypto rather than suffocate it. By simply removing the fear of regulatory crackdown, Atkins could encourage more institutional investment in bitcoin. |
That's clearly promising for price and adoption. |
● Finally, President Trump selected David Sacks – a venture capitalist and founder of the widely successful All-In podcast – to be his "AI and crypto czar." According to the President, "David will focus on making America the clear global leader in both areas" in this new role. |
It's no wonder bitcoin is up 40% since President Trump was reelected. |
And can you guess who took credit on December 5 when bitcoin crossed the $100,000 mark for the first time ever? |
 | Source: X |
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If you think this is the last time President Trump will pound his chest when bitcoin makes new highs, you'd be mistaken. |
After all, he did promise to make America "the bitcoin superpower of the world." |
Betting On a Pro-Crypto President |
President Trump knows he has an opportunity to go down in history as the first leader of a major nation to adopt bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset. |
While many past and future U.S. presidents may lay claim to a booming stock market, only one president will ever have the opportunity to be the first to adopt bitcoin. |
And if President Trump acquires bitcoin as a reserve asset, it will forever cement him as the bitcoin president. |
While this might seem insignificant by comparison, Michael Saylor's decision to pivot MicroStrategy – a forgotten tech company – into a bitcoin "proxy" company has made him one of the most successful corporate executives in the world. |
Since 2020, Saylor has added bitcoin to MicroStrategy's corporate balance sheet. Today, the company owns 439,000 bitcoin, which is worth $41.6 billion at current prices. |
Over the same period, the company's share price has grown from $12.36 to $364 – a 2,847% increase. |
As bitcoin adoption increased and its price skyrocketed, people began to view Saylor as a genius. He will forever be remembered as the first bitcoin CEO… A man who envisioned how bitcoin would become a "future store of value." |
President Trump has an opportunity to go down in history as the first president to see bitcoin for what it is: a superior version of gold for the digital age. |
As with Saylor, people might not understand the vision at first. But as bitcoin's price continues to go higher, everyone has to admit what a genius move it was to add bitcoin on Microstrategy's balance sheet. |
President Trump adopting bitcoin will also cement BTC as a legitimate competitor to gold and push other nations to adopt it too. |
No major nation wants to be first to acquire bitcoin as a reserve asset because it could be seen as a questionable move… What if bitcoin tanks? |
But if the U.S. is buying it, it green lights it for them. |
It's like when Blackrock – the world's largest asset manager – legitimated bitcoin via a spot BTC exchange-traded fund (ETF). Once BlackRock got on board with bitcoin, it made it easier for smaller money managers to follow. |
With President Trump headed back to the White House, the wheels are in motion for bitcoin becoming a national reserve asset. Other countries will have no choice but to follow suit or get left behind. |
And we're seeing that happen already. |
Earlier this month, Brazilian lawmakers proposed a bill that would create a bitcoin strategic reserve that would hold up to 5% of the country's international reserves. |
Russian lawmakers also proposed creating a bitcoin strategic reserve earlier this month. This move came two weeks after Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a law recognizing crypto as property. |
As you've seen over the past six months, President Trump has aligned himself with bitcoin and the wider crypto space. |
Just as he made the stock market the barometer for his success during his first term, I believe crypto will be another major barometer of success on his mind (and his social media feeds) during his second term. |
When you tie the success of your Presidency to the outcome of a financial market, common sense dictates that you will do everything in your power to help that market flourish. That was certainly true for the stock market when we saw it rise as much as 58% from the moment he was elected. |
That's why we believe this new "Trump effect" will play out in crypto once we see President Trump return to office on January 20. |
As soon as he begins his second term, if bitcoin is not already surging, I believe President Trump will take immediate steps to boost the price of bitcoin just like he did for the stock market when he last took power. |
So if you're worried about the recent pull back, brush it aside because….. The President is taking a personal interest in our interests, the widespread adoption of bitcoin and crypto assets. And that has never happened before. |
We, the American holders of bitcoin and crypto assets are the "special interest group" the President is paying attention to. It's vitally important to your financial health that you understand how valuable that is. |
Our interests are aligned with the President's interests. |
If you're already allocated to bitcoin, there's nothing you need to do. Enjoy the holidays with your family and know that everything is in place for you to profit. |
If you don't own any bitcoin, you should add some to your portfolio ahead of nation states buying it. |
As you've seen over the past week, crypto assets like bitcoin can be extremely volatile. So be sure to use rational position sizing so you never put your current lifestyle at risk. |
From there, just let time do the heavy lifting, |
Regards, |
Houston Molnar |
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