Since my first day on Wall Street in the 1960s, I've obsessed over trading volume... I believe it's a "missing link" for success in the markets over the long term.
Editor's note: Today, we're following up on Friday's Chaikin PowerFeed issue with another "peek behind the curtain" of one of the Power Gauge's most important factors...
This essay is adapted from an October special report from our Smart Money Trader publication. In it, Chaikin Analytics founder Marc Chaikin explains what led him to create a critical indicator that follows what the so-called "smart money" on Wall Street is doing.
Additionally, please note that our Chaikin Analytics offices will be closed this Tuesday and Wednesday for the Christmas holiday. So we won't publish the PowerFeed either day. Look for your next issue on Thursday, December 26. We hope you enjoy the holiday!
Now, we'll turn it over to Marc...
The Birth of Chaikin Money Flow
By Marc Chaikin, founder, Chaikin Analytics
Since my first day on Wall Street in the 1960s, I've obsessed over trading volume...
I believe it's a "missing link" for success in the markets over the long term.
After all, without volume, a stock wouldn't have any price action. Instead, it would just trade in a straight line.
The act of buying and selling shares of a stock sets the market's price.
To find the best stocks, you need to know what that buying and selling really looks like. It's about "looking under the hood" and getting a sense of what's behind a stock's movement.
After I first got this concept in my head... I couldn't let go of it.
I started looking at everything I could find in terms of trading volume...
One of the first stops in my journey was learning about financial writer Joseph Granville in the 1970s. He developed a simple-but-effective idea called "on-balance volume" ("OBV").
Every day, Granville would track a stock's price and whether it was up or down. He then added or subtracted that day's volume from his OBV line. And he used the data to make calls about a stock's potential path.
It was a great way for me to dip my toes into the concept of trading volume.
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So I started reading research from author and trader Larry Williams. He's still active today.
Williams wrote a couple of seminal technical-analysis books in the 1970s. And importantly, he created what became known as the "Williams Accumulation/Distribution indicator."
In short, Williams focused on a stock's closing price versus the opening price. And at the time, it provided a big step forward over other published work in terms of trading volume.
That's when it all really clicked for me.
I used to compute Williams' math by hand using a "Bowmar Brain" calculator...
The calculations themselves weren't hard. But collectively, it produced a ton of work. And I had to do it every day for every stock I was watching.
The ticker tape never stopped. So I needed to continuously update my calculations.
That made trying to get ahead of the market hard enough.
Then, something small happened in the world. And it changed the direction of my life...
Around 1978, newspapers stopped publishing granular price data on stocks...
The New York Times, Wall Street Journal, and other publications would print the open, high, low, and close prices for stocks every day. And importantly, they would also print the volume.
But for some reason...
They all decided around the same time that it wasn't necessary anymore.
Frustrating doesn't even begin to describe my feelings at the time.
I had found the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. Then, without any input from me, the leprechaun ripped the pot right out of my hands.
The data I needed had vanished.
But I wasn't going to give up.
So I set out to create a new formula like what Williams had done.
I knew I could compare a stock's opening price with its average price for the day. And I could do the same thing with the closing price and the average price.
That worked – and frankly, it was even better than Williams' way. Then, it dawned on me...
I needed to look at how institutions buy and sell stocks.
Put simply, the real buyers – the market's most powerful players – typically get in toward the end of the day. This idea is the foundation of my Chaikin Money Flow indicator.
That's the short version of how this indicator came to be...
I created it to follow the buying and selling patterns of the so-called "smart money" on Wall Street. And today, it's one of the most important pieces of the Power Gauge for determining which direction a stock might be headed next.
Good investing,
Marc Chaikin Editor's note: With Smart Money Trader, Marc is looking for opportunities that smart-money buying patterns create. It's the chance to take advantage of institutional buying sprees by getting in alongside the smart money.
As Marc says, big buyers can try to hide in the shadows... but trading volume doesn't lie.
Learn more about Smart Money Trader by clicking here.
Market View
Major Indexes and Notable Sectors
# Hld: Bullish Neutral Bearish
Dow 30
+0.94%
9
11
10
S&P 500
+0.81%
74
258
164
Nasdaq
+0.91%
22
48
30
Small Caps
+0.98%
401
1024
480
Bonds
+0.57%
Real Estate
+1.82%
0
15
16
— According to the Chaikin Power Bar, Large Cap stocks are more Bearish than Small Cap stocks. Major indexes are mixed.
* * * *
Sector Tracker
Sector movement over the last 5 days
Information Technology
-1.29%
Utilities
-1.58%
Financial
-2.12%
Health Care
-2.12%
Staples
-2.56%
Industrials
-2.63%
Discretionary
-2.79%
Communication
-2.95%
Materials
-4.09%
Real Estate
-4.76%
Energy
-5.69%
* * * *
Industry Focus
Regional Banking Services
35
80
27
Over the past 6 months, the Regional Banking subsector (KRE) has outperformed the S&P 500 by +21.04%. Its Power Bar ratio, which measures future potential, is Strong, with more Bullish than Bearish stocks. It is currently ranked #6 of 21 subsectors and has moved down 2 slots over the past week.
Top Stocks
BRKL
Brookline Bancorp, I
CAC
Camden National Corp
CCB
Coastal Financial Co
* * * *
Top Movers
Gainers
ENPH
+8.59%
PLTR
+8.54%
MTCH
+6.7%
CCL
+6.43%
NCLH
+5.9%
Losers
TSLA
-3.46%
ODFL
-3.39%
META
-1.73%
ACN
-1.56%
MRK
-1.48%
* * * *
Earnings Report
Reporting Today
Rating
Before Open
After Close
No earnings reporting today.
Earnings Surprises
CCL Carnival Corporation & plc
Q4
$0.14
Beat by $0.07
* * * *
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