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Don Kaufman here. |
Listen up, because I'm about to save you years of chasing shiny objects in the trading world. |
And yes, there's a story about an ice maker that perfectly illustrates why some "terrible" investments like Netflix turned out to be goldmines. |
🐰 The Shiny Object Syndrome
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You know what traders are really good at? Chasing bunnies. One day it's the "parachute trading system," the next it's the "triple threat setup," and before you know it, you're jumping from one "shiny object" to another. |
Sound familiar? |
We've all been there, myself included. |
🎯 What Edge Really Is (No BS)
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Here's the thing most retail traders never hear: Edge can actually be quantified. |
I'm talking about a real, mathematical edge – not some vague concept of "having an advantage." |
When I worked with major players like Citadel and Peak Six, we weren't sitting around discussing the latest trading fad. We were obsessed with one thing: measurable edge. |
💡 The Million-Dollar Reality Check
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Want to know what separates successful derivative firms from the masses? |
They've stripped away all the fluff and focused on mathematical certainties. |
For instance, when we talk about implied volatility being slightly overstated, that's not just trader talk – it's an equation that can literally show you edge = X. |
🏆 Building Your Edge Foundation: The Real Deal |
Let me break this down into something you can actually use, without getting lost in the theoretical weeds. |
📊 Understanding Measurable Advantages
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Think about it like a casino. They don't guess - they know their exact edge on every game: |
In options trading, this might be selling premium when implied volatility is statistically overpriced by 2-3% When put/call ratios are extremely skewed, creating opportunities in the opposite direction Exploiting the tendency for options to lose value faster in the final 30 days before expiration
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🎲 Focusing on Mathematical Probabilities
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Here's where most traders go wrong - they trade on "feelings" instead of numbers: |
If you're selling premium, understand that a 70% probability of profit means you'll still lose 30% of the time Position sizing based on probability (smaller size on lower probability trades) Example: A $1 wide spread with an 80% chance of success should be priced around $0.20. If you can sell it for $0.25, that's measurable edge
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🚫 Ignoring Trading Fads |
Let me give you some real talk about what to avoid:
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The "guaranteed winner" strategy everyone's talking about on social media Systems that worked "perfectly" in back-testing but haven't proven themselves in real markets Complicated setups requiring 15 different indicators to align (if you need that many, it's probably not edge)
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⚒️ Building Systems Around Proven Edges |
Here's what actually works:
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The Volatility Edge:
Selling options when implied volatility is in the 75th percentile or higher for that specific stock Taking advantage of volatility crush after earnings Example: If XYZ typically moves 5% after earnings but options are pricing in an 8% move, there's your edge
The Time Edge:
Theta decay accelerates in the last 30-45 days Managing winners at 50% profit instead of waiting for expiration Rolling positions when they still have value rather than letting them go to zero
The Probability Edge:
Using defined-risk strategies where your max loss is always known Taking trades with a positive expected value (probability of winning × potential profit > probability of losing × potential loss) Example: A trade with 60% chance of making $200 and 40% chance of losing $200 has positive expected value
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🎯 Putting It All Together |
The real secret is combining these edges:
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High probability setup (70%+) During higher implied volatility With accelerated time decay Using proper position sizing
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Think about it like this: If you're a card counter in blackjack, you don't just bet randomly - you increase your bets when the odds are in your favor. |
Trading is no different. |
You want multiple edges working in your favor before putting on a position. |
Remember: Edge isn't about being right all the time. It's about being right often enough, with the right size, to make money over time. |
That's how the house always wins, and that's how successful traders consistently make money. |
And here's something most don't talk about: The best edge is often the simplest one that you can execute consistently. I've seen brilliant mathematicians overcomplicate their trading and blow up, while traders with basic but consistent edge make millions. |
🎬 The Ice Maker Lesson |
Here's a wild story that perfectly illustrates perspective: Back at Think or Swim, our CEO was obsessed with the size of our office ice maker. A board member from TCV (early investors in Facebook and Netflix) thought we were insane.
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Fun fact: In that same meeting, they were complaining about their "worst investment ever" – Netflix. Sometimes what looks ridiculous to others is exactly where the edge lies. |
🎯 Your Trading Edge Awaits: Time to Stop Chasing Bunnies |
Look, if this message resonated with you – if you're tired of jumping from one trading system to another, if you're ready to stop gambling and start trading with real, mathematical edge – I've got something special for you. |
Remember that ice maker story? |
Sometimes the simplest things that others overlook contain the biggest opportunities. |
That's exactly what I've packaged into my "Top 7 Beginner-Friendly Strategies for 2025." |
🎁 For the Serious Traders Only:
I'm opening up my vault and sharing the exact strategies I developed during my time with major trading firms. No fluff, no complicated jargon – just pure, measurable edge you can start using immediately. |
✨ What You'll Master in 12 Weeks: |
In/Out Advantage (my personal favorite for consistent wins) Premium Selling Secrets (the casino-style edge) The Christmas Tree Trade (perfect for volatile markets) Earnings Edge Plays (capitalize on volatility crush) Weekly SPX Expected Move Strategy (institutional-level tools) Backspread Magic (limited risk, unlimited potential)
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🔥 Black Friday Special: $2,000 (Regular Price: $4,000)
Less than 50 seats available – because like any good trade, timing matters. |
Ready to stop chasing bunnies and start trading with real edge? |
👉 Secure Your Spot Now: Call 623-244-5657 |
To your success, |
Don Kaufman |
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