Editor's note: The energy sector is set to undergo a huge shift... The Russia-Ukraine war has led to elevated costs across the energy market as Russia continues to limit its natural gas exports. And with no clear end to this conflict in sight, energy prices should remain heightened for the foreseeable future. That's why the European Union has shifted its focus toward improving its renewable energy resources. And Marc Chaikin – founder of our corporate affiliate Chaikin Analytics – believes this could lead to massive changes in the global energy market... In today's Masters Series, originally from the June 28 issue of the Chaikin PowerFeed daily e-letter, Marc explains how Russia is weaponizing its natural gas supply... details the long-term repercussions of this strategy... and compares the European Union's current situation with the oil pains the U.S. endured in the '70s...
The U.S. Adapted... And So Will Europe By Marc Chaikin, founder, Chaikin Analytics All things considered, William Henson had a great day... Henson only waited 40 minutes to fill up his car. A week earlier, he had waited an hour and a half. Plus, it could've been much worse... At least Henson didn't bump his car into another while waiting to buy gas. A man who did that in Norfolk, Virginia wound up struggling with a hatchet-wielding couple. In Levittown, Pennsylvania, rioting drivers threw rocks and bottles at police. They set two cars on fire. And they shouted, "More gas! More gas!" Fights broke out all across the country. Some gas-station owners carried guns for protection. And ultimately, many gas stations needed to invent new "business models"... Stations in some areas instituted an "odd-even" gas-rationing policy. Drivers could only buy gas if the last digit of their license plate was odd or even, depending on the day. Other stations tried a three-flag system. Green meant drivers could buy gas. Yellow signaled that the station was rationing gas. And finally, red indicated no gas. Like it or not, the 1970s oil crisis is a major part of U.S. history. In fact, the National Museum of American History's collection includes "Red flag from the gasoline shortage of 1973-1974." It may seem like a bygone era to today's youth. But Russia's invasion of Ukraine earlier this year brought us back to the reality Americans learned in the 1970s... It's impossible to escape the economics of the global energy supply. In short, the U.S. never forgot its oil pains of the 1970s. Five decades later, Europe is learning a similar lesson. And it could lead to big changes in the energy space...
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Americans permanently adapted to OPEC's embargo. The government created a Strategic Petroleum Reserve in 1975. And it introduced fuel-economy standards for automobiles... Buyers no longer cherished big, gas-guzzling cars. Fuel efficiency became stylish. The now-familiar "miles per gallon" metric rose 81% across the board between 1975 and 1988. Federal agencies even started researching wind and solar power. But back then, they worried about the oil supply – not climate change. (Concern for climate change is a much more recent thing.) These days, as you likely know by now, Russia is weaponizing energy. That's a central part of its fight against Ukraine. It threatens to further squeeze Europe's gas supply. Or it insists on payment in Russian rubles. (That would reduce the impact of other Western sanctions on the country.) Folks, this situation is just as serious as OPEC's 1970s oil embargo... In 2021, the European Union ("EU") imported about 40% of its natural gas from Russia. And Germany depends on Russia for 65% of its natural gas. The EU knew Russia always had the energy weapon. But now, it's no longer an idle threat. Russia is actively using the global energy as a weapon. Even if Russia and Ukraine made peace tomorrow, that action can never be undone. As a result, alternative energy sourcing is a new fact of life in the EU. And that's bullish over the long term for U.S. companies tied to the production and movement of natural gas... In fact, global energy-oriented consulting firm Wood Mackenzie projects that U.S. exports of liquefied natural gas will double between 2020 and 2040. And the International Energy Agency realizes that fossil fuels aren't going away anytime soon. It estimates that gas will account for 46% of the global energy portfolio in 2040. You might think energy prices have run their course after big gains this year. But history says Russia's war in Ukraine will have long-lasting repercussions for the energy market. Ultimately, like the U.S. in the 1970s, the EU won't forget its current energy pains. Good investing, Marc Chaikin
Editor's note: Marc issued an urgent warning earlier this year about a massive shift headed to the markets by the end of 2022. And today, that prediction is quietly coming true... The shift has only just begun. But your chance to take advantage is now razor-thin. In short, Marc says we're in the early innings of an extraordinary market phenomenon that could erase any losses you've suffered this year. Get the full details here.
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