Dear Reader,
I'm going to do a little Andy Rooney today —
You remember him from 60 Minutes, that old curmudgeon who'd close the show with a five-minute verbal op-ed on what he thought was right or wrong.
A lot of people have been asking me:
What do you think about Trump's speech…
The situation with Iran..
And, what happens to the markets from here?
I'm not arrogant or stupid enough to think I can predict what the markets will do.
What I can tell you is what history tells us.
What History Tells Us About Markets and War
Typically, when this country has gone to war, markets have sold off around 20% in the lead-up.
Think back to Iraq War I and Iraq War II — both Bush 41 and Bush 43 spent roughly a year psychologically preparing the American public for war.
Markets don't like uncertainty, so they go down during that leadup period.
But here's the interesting part:
Once the actual shooting starts, markets tend to rise about 24% in the 12 months that follow.
This is what 30 to 40 years of American warfare has taught us.
What's unique this time is that Trump has been propagandizing this war very differently — saying it'll be over in two weeks, a month, three days, five days.
We never really had that extended period where the president and his team go out and prepare the public.
So if I had a gun to my head, I'd say the bias is downward — risk-off for a while.
But Great Companies are Incredibly Cheap
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At the same time, some truly great companies are trading at prices we haven't seen in years.
Amazon hasn't been this cheap since the 2008 financial crisis.
Nvidia, Meta, Microsoft — these stocks have come down dramatically.
And it's not just tech.
Biotech — Merck, Glaxo — there are all kinds of great companies trading at what I'd call insane valuations.
It's a tale of two cities.
The overall market sentiment may stay soft, but great companies that are trading cheap are going to get scooped up by opportunistic investors.
How do you not play it that way?
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In my experience, you can take $10,000 into a crash, and turn it into $100,000…
Take that $100,000 into the next crash, and turn it into $1 million.
Take that $1 million and turn it into $5 million and so on.
That's how I've made most of my wealth.
This is what I recommend right now.
On Iran and Nuclear Weapons
My daughter had some of her friends over the other day — teenagers — and what struck me was how little anyone under 40 knows about the dangers of nuclear weapons.
Their generation has been so focused on climate change that nuclear non-proliferation has almost completely fallen off their radar.
We grew up differently.
I grew up in a neighborhood with nuclear fallout shelters — duck and cover drills were just part of life.
But these kids grew up after the Soviet Union collapsed, so an entire generation doesn't truly understand how catastrophic a nuclear weapon can be.
A single nuclear weapon smuggled into Washington, D.C. during the State of the Union could literally decapitate our entire government.
That's not a fantasy scenario — that's a real risk when you're dealing with a regime that openly screams "Death to America" and "The Great Satan."
Even if the Iranian state leadership understood mutually assured destruction, you'd still have to worry about a rogue general deciding to smuggle a weapon to an Osama Bin Laden-type figure, routed through a drug smuggling network, and detonated on American soil.
Do you understand what happens if our entire government is decapitated?
Probably civil war.
Generals fighting over who's in charge.
And there are plenty of countries — Russia, China etc. — who would love to see that happen.
The bottom line is this:
You do not allow radical fundamentalists who are openly hostile to everyone around them to obtain nuclear weapons.
If you can stop it, you stop it.
We don't get to choose the challenges our generation faces — they're thrust upon us.
But it is incumbent upon us to make sure our kids don't grow up in a country where a nuclear bomb goes off in New York or Washington, D.C.
Decapitate our government, and the United States we know and love will never be the same.
That's all I have for you today. Have a wonderful weekend. I'll see you Monday.
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