| | Thursday afternoon, I put on a Tesla butterfly at $0.50. | Friday morning it was worth $1.18. That is 136% in one day. Before most traders finished their coffee. | Here is what they missed. | A butterfly is a three-legged options spread. You buy one option above the target, sell two at the target, and buy one below. | The cost is small. The risk is exactly what you pay. On this trade, $0.50 per spread. | The target was the lower edge of Tesla's expected move for the week. | The expected move is the range the options market prices in for any given week. You take the at-the-money straddle, meaning the combined cost of a call and a put at the current stock price. | That dollar amount tells you how far the market expects the stock to move, and those two edges are your targets. | That is it. | No trend lines. No indicators. Just the math, the options market is already doing for you. | Don't think. Just go look at what the expected move is. | On Thursday afternoon, Tesla's lower expected move edge was sitting right around $368 to $370. I centered the butterfly there. Bought the $375 put, sold two $370 puts, bought the $365 put. $0.50 debit. | Now here is where most traders make the mistake. They see a stock down on the week, read the headlines, and form an opinion. Bullish. Bearish. Whatever. They trade opinions. | I do not trade opinions. I trade structure. | Think of it like a shovel. Every time the market moves, market makers have to scoop their positions to stay hedged. They are not taking directional bets. | They stay neutral, which means they constantly buy and sell stock and options around these levels. That mechanical activity creates gravitational pull. The expected move edges are where that pull is strongest. | The stock does not need to know why it is going to $368. It just goes. Because billions of dollars in options say it should. | That is what happened Thursday night into Friday. Tesla gapped right into the expected move. The butterfly went from $0.50 to $1.18. Done. | This is what the Superfly service is built around. Not predictions. Structure. The expected move tells you where the magnets are. The butterfly lets you position yourself at one of them for pennies the night before. | Monday, Wednesday, and Friday expirations now exist on Tesla, Meta, Google, and most of the major names. Three shots at this setup every single week. | You do not need to be right every time. Hit one out of three, and the math works in your favor. The winners are big enough to cover the losses and then some. | Thursday's setup, the $0.50 entry, the $368 target, the $1.18 exit. That was not luck. That was the expected move, doing exactly what the options market said it would do. | The Superfly replay from Thursday walks through exactly how I found the setup, where I placed the trade, and what I was watching at the close. If you want to see how this works in real time, that is where to | Watch the replay here. | To your success, | Don Kaufman | P.S. $0.50 in. $1.18 out. One day. The expected move had $368 on the board before the week started. That is the only analysis that mattered. | | | |
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