Recession Now, Private Sector Growth Later

Technical or not, a recession now gives Trump runway ahead of the midterms

May 1, 2025 Ripple Effect — May 1, 2025 Yesterday’s -0.3% GDP read was a shock to financial markets – at least for the first half hour of trading. In the three months before Trump’s “Liberation Day” speech, imports soared ahead of potential tariffs. That shift changed the calculation and reduced GDP. Plus, while DOGE is now touting just $160 billion in annual savings, a far cry from the trillion or so they were talking about a few months ago, the government part of the equation shrank. By these factors combined, odds of a recession in 2025 are soaring: Polymarket, which has the wisdom of crowds on political trends, now sees a two-in-one chance in favor of a recession. Likely, we’re already in one, as the slowdown in global trade since Liberation Day has been far more noticeable than in Q1. We expect conditions to worsen in the months ahead. Stocks may shrug off the news now but could retest their recent lows and break lower from there. Expect assets like gold and bitcoin to follow suit but to soar higher as global liquidity continues to increase and as Jerome Powell is finally forced by conditions to cut interest rates further, including by the latest jobs report. -Andrew This THIRD WAVE from Texas Will Redefine America for Decades Coal fueled the first industrial revolution. Oil fueled the second. Now a silvery-white, energy-packed metal from Texas is about to fuel a THIRD, new era of American might. Three stocks are poised to lead the way. See the details here. P.S. As always, your cheerful reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.) How did we get here? Find out in these riveting reads: Demise of the Dollar, Financial Reckoning Day, and Empire of Debt — all three books are now available in their third post-pandemic editions. You might enjoy one or all three. (Or… simply pre-order Empire of Debt: We Came, We Saw, We Borrowed, now available at Amazon and Barnes & Noble or if you prefer one of these sites: Bookshop.org, Books-A-Million or Target.) Please send your comments, reactions, opprobrium, vitriol and praise to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com

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