Only 6 Financials Stocks Are Staying Afloat – and None are BanksVIEW IN BROWSER By Michael Salvatore, Editor, TradeSmith Daily In This Digest:
- Iran says Israel is in “violation” of the ceasefire
- Bitcoin’s first buy signal since March – and why you should pay attention
- These six stocks are bucking the bearish trend in the financial sector
Yesterday’s relief rally was one for the record books…The S&P 500 surged 2.5% and the tech-packed Nasdaq 100 jumped 2.9% – the second best-performing day for both indexes since March 31. And emerging-market stocks, represented by the iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (IEMG), posted the biggest recovery rally since last year’s Liberation Day crash – up 5.4%. Brent crude oil, meanwhile, plunged more than 14%. This took the international benchmark back down to $94 a barrel. Investors took the two-week ceasefire news and ran with it. But within hours of the deal, Israel launched what its military described as its “largest coordinated strike across Lebanon” since the war began. Iran says Lebanon was part of the ceasefire. Israel and the White House say it wasn’t. Then, citing Israel’s Lebanon strikes, Iran halted oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz again. This deal is far from done. And all the parties involved seem to be testing it from every direction. We’re not here to predict what happens next on the world stage. Our beat is helping self-directed investors like you navigate crises like this through the lens of market data, not news headlines, hunches, or guesswork. And as we’ll explore today, we’re picking up an interesting signal in an out-of-favor asset few investors are paying attention to right now.
Recommended Link |
|
Elon Musk could take SpaceX public in 2026, at an estimated $1.75 trillion valuation. The IPO would include Elon’s AI model, Grok. But according to Louis Navellier, a radical new AI model will launch this year… over 1,000 times more powerful than Elon’s. And the company behind it could outperform SpaceX in the process. Click here for full details (including Louis’ new pick – free). |
 |
|
Bitcoin just flashed a buy signal – but mind the bear market…On Tuesday, Short-Term Health fired a new Green Zone signal on Bitcoin. That’s its first buy signal since March 12. Take a look: 
Short-Term Health is TradeSmith’s most sensitive trend indicator. It looks at how a stock or index has been trading and then flags momentum shifts. Green means buy. Yellow means caution. Red means sell. Buy and sell signals on this indicator can last as little as a week to up to a year. It all depends on the strength of the trend. Bitcoin’s buy signal comes alongside a surprising development. Iran is now demanding that oil tankers pay transit tolls through the Strait of Hormuz in bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. The Financial Times reports a fee of about $1 per barrel, payable in Bitcoin or stablecoins (cryptocurrencies pegged to the price of the dollar or another national currency), as part of the post-ceasefire deal. It’s a sign that even in the middle of a war, crypto is carving out a role in the real-world economy – for better or worse. But more important, look at the colored bars along the bottom of the chart. They represent Bitcoin’s shifting Short-Term Health status. On Oct. 10, 2025, Short-Term Health flashed Red when Bitcoin was trading at $122,358. What followed was a decline of more than 50%, eventually taking the price below $90,000. That was the end of the Bitcoin bull market, and Short-Term Health called it perfectly. Then in January, a Green signal fired near $90,000. Bitcoin climbed as high as $97,704 over the next 11 days – a gain of nearly 9% – before the signal reversed. Then on March 12, another Green signal fired near $70,000. Bitcoin rallied to about $75,000 in a matter of days before rolling over again. Now comes another Green signal as Bitcoin is trading around $71,000. Each of these Green signals has correctly identified a short-term bounce. And each of those bounces was brief. So Bitcoin is a buy here – as long as Short-Term Health stays green. But treat it like a trade. The last two signals lasted little longer than a week or two before prices reversed and shifted Red again. Just like in 2022, we’re likely approaching the middle stage of a Bitcoin bear market, with this acting like as another dead cat bounce. Proceed with caution. These six financial stocks are bucking the bearish trend…The ceasefire rally lifted most sectors on Wednesday. But underneath the surface, TradeSmith’s data is telling a different story about one of the market’s most troubled corners. Just 7.9% of the financials stocks in the SPDR Financials Sector ETF (XLF) are in a Short-Term Health Green Zone right now. Roughly 75% are in the Red. Here’s the full breakdown of each market sector: 
Financials are the weakest sector in the market on short-term momentum. It’s been in a Short-Term Health Red Zone for more than a month and in a Long-Term Health Red Zone for more than four weeks. It’s also close to the worst Long-Term Health picture in the market, trailing only Healthcare in the number of stocks stuck in the Red on a longer timeframe. But these six financial stocks remain in bullish Green Zones. 
They fall into two groups:1. Insurers: Allstate (ALL), Travelers (TRV), and Chubb (CB) are all major insurance firms. Loews (L) is a more diversified conglomerate, though its CNA Financial insurance unit contributes more than 81% of its annual revenue. All three have been in Long-Term Health Green Zones for close to a year or more. And their Short-Term Green Zones have all emerged within the last one to four months, signaling fresh bullish momentum. 2. Exchanges and market operators: CME Group (CME) and Cboe Global Markets (CBOE) operate marketplaces where stocks, options, and futures trade. These two have both more recent ST and LT Health Green Zones. ST health indicates a strong uptrend, while recent LT Health signals indicate a recovery from a slump. This is a telling group. Insurance companies collect premiums upfront and invest that pool of cash while waiting for claims to come in. They benefit from higher interest rates – a possibility we’ve been discussing – and have limited exposure to the AI disruption story that’s hammered banks and fintech. Exchanges, meanwhile, profit from trading volume. And in volatile markets like 2026, volume surges. These are the financial stocks that don’t need a bull market to work. They need volatility and pricing power – and they’ve got both. If you want Financials exposure right now, these are the companies the data supports. A final word on our newest trading breakthrough…Inside our Research Lab, we’re like modern-day prospectors panning for gold — only we use data and computers, not picks and shovels. We’re constantly testing algorithmic trading strategies, market health indicators, and analytics to uncover what actually works — and what doesn’t. And for the past 12 months, the team here at TradeSmith has been working on a revolutionary new system. At its core is a simple observation: Every business in the world is unique. This means every stock has its own way of behaving and its own way of reacting to what happens in the economy and the markets. For example, an IT company like Oracle will behave differently than an oil producer like Chevron. After all, their business models are very different. And a big drug company like Pfizer will behave differently than a retailer like Macy’s. Again, two very different business models. When you look at the markets this way, you start to see that stocks, in a way, are like people. We all have our own unique behavioral patterns – our own unique habits, likes, dislikes, and mannerisms. This means companies will be affected by various economic climates differently. They will react to new market developments differently. And their stocks will have their own unique trading patterns — their own behavioral profiles. But many of these patterns are either so small or so obscure that no human analyst would ever find them. That’s why the system we developed evaluates 2.09 million potential trades every day across 2,467 stocks. It runs each one through hundreds of calculations, looking for the specific combinations of factors that have historically preceded big moves. In a five-year backtest, one approach using this system beat the S&P 500 by 3-to-1. Our CEO, Keith Kaplan, will lift the lid on this breakthrough at a launch event on April 22. I’ll share a sign-up link here in the Daily next Wednesday so you can register your interest and access a test drive of a beta version of our new software ahead of the launch event. Stay tuned. To building wealth beyond measure, 
Michael Salvatore
Editor, TradeSmith Daily Disclosures: Michael Salvatore held Bitcoin at the time of this writing. |
Tidak ada komentar:
Posting Komentar