| TQ Morning Briefing | Palo Alto Networks beat on every line and dropped 6% after hours on weak guidance. The market is now punishing the companies building AI defenses, not just the ones losing to them. Today, FOMC minutes at 2pm and Analog Devices before the bell test whether anything breaks the 6,800 to 7,000 range. | | | | | | The S&P Gained 7 Points. The Ride Was Rough. | The index swung nearly 1% in both ways before closing at 6,843. | The Nasdaq held green by a thread even as Oracle, Intuit, and Salesforce fell 3% to 5%. CrowdStrike dropped 7% after Mizuho cut its rating. AMD lost more than 4%. | The surface looked calm. Below it, money moved fast. Banks and staples took in what tech shed. Walmart hit an all-time high. | The 10-year fell to 4.03%. | That is the lowest level since early December. | Normally that lifts growth. | It did not. | PANW beat. | It still fell 6%. | Lower rates are not lifting software. | That is the tell. | Trade Implication | If tech holds up into the FOMC minutes, the rate plays (XLRE, XLU) that led last week may pull back. | If tech keeps selling, the shift into safety names goes further. | Watch whether the 10Y stays below 4.05% into the close. That is the hinge. |
| |
| | |
| | | | 7 Stocks That Could Become the Market's Next Giants | Apple, Google, Tesla… | Sure, they're household names now, but these companies and the other members of the original Magnificent 7 didn't start out obvious. | They earned their place over time. | Our analysts believe the next generation of market leaders is forming now… | And we've identified the 7 companies that fit the "Magnificent" pattern. | You can see the full list for free today. | Don't wait until everyone's talking about them. | Get Your Free Report Today. |
| |
| | |
| | | | | WHAT ACTUALLY MOVED MARKETS |
| |
|
| | | The AI Fear Has Spread Beyond Software | The first wave hit SaaS. The second hit hardware on capex doubt. | Tuesday showed a third wave: it is hitting firms on both sides of the AI trade, even those built to gain from it. | PANW spent $28 billion on deals to build an AI-driven security platform. It beat every metric. | Revenue grew 15%. Next-gen ARR grew 33%. Then the market saw Q3 EPS guidance of 78 to 80 cents against a 92-cent target and sold it 6%. | AI tools now perform tasks that once required full software suites. | That started with CRM and workflow names. But it extends. | If AI agents can run threat scans, patch flaws, and sort alerts on their own, then even the vendors selling those agents face thinner margins. | PANW is being priced for the same force it is trying to sell. | The pressure is not isolated to tech. | General Mills cut guidance. | Genuine Parts fell 14%. | Spending is slowing too. | Execution Bias | The "beat and punish" cycle is the trade. NVDA reports February 25. | If PANW and Cisco are the template, even a strong NVDA print may not hold if the forward guide falls short. | Today, ADI before the open is the key read. A beat with strong auto and data center trends could push back on the gloom. | A miss makes the chip story look thinner than bulls want. |
| |
| | |
| | | | Staples and Banks Are Taking What Tech Can't Hold | The rotation is not quiet. XLK fell nearly 1% Tuesday. | Staples and banks posted gains. Walmart pushed past a trillion-dollar cap. Coke held near highs. | Utilities and real estate led S&P sectors for the second week in a row. | This is not a classic fear trade. | The 10Y fell to 4.03% after a soft CPI print (2.4% headline, below the 2.5% call). | Rates are falling because prices are cooling. That helps banks, REITs, and credit plays. | The hope: lower rates spur more lending and deals. | The twist: lower rates should also help growth stocks. They are not. | The AI worry is a separate force that swamps the rate benefit. | NVDA churned all session. | The S&P failed at 7,000 again. | The range is tightening. | Execution Bias
The banks-and-staples trade works as long as the 10Y holds below 4.10%. | If FOMC minutes today show more doves than the market thinks, XLF and XLP keep going. | Regional banks (KRE) and rate-linked REITs are the plays with the most torque on that move. |
| |
| | |
| | | | The Surging AI Everyone Wants In On | $60M+ raised. 14,000+ investors. Valuation up 5,000%+ in four years* — yet shares are still just $0.85. | Selected by Adobe Design Fund and insiders from Google, Meta, and Amazon, RAD Intel has its Nasdaq ticker ($RADI) reserved and a leadership team with $9B+ in M&A experience. | A who's-who of Fortune 1000 brands and top agencies already use its award-winning AI platform, with recurring seven-figure partnerships in place. Sales contracts have doubled in 2025 vs. 2024 as AI consolidation accelerates. | Own the layer everyone will build on. | Invest Early — Shares Just $0.85. | This is a paid advertisement for RAD Intel made pursuant to Regulation A+ offering and involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. The valuation is set by the Company and there is currently no public market for the Company's Common Stock. Nasdaq ticker "RADI" has been reserved by RAD Intel and any potential listing is subject to future regulatory approval and market conditions. Brand references reflect factual platform use, not endorsement. Investor references reflect factual individual or institutional participation and do not imply endorsement or sponsorship by the referenced companies. Please read the offering circular and related risks at invest.radintel.ai |
| |
| | |
| | | | Iran Closed Part of the Strait of Hormuz. Oil Barely Moved. | Iran shut down parts of the Strait of Hormuz for navy drills. A third of all crude shipped by sea goes through there. WTI is at $62.30. Flat on the day. | The calm tells you what shifted. The US and Iran have agreed on broad terms for nuclear talks. | Iran's top diplomat called the talks "serious." The market moved from pricing war risk to pricing deal odds. | But US warships are still in the region. Iran is still running drills. This keeps a floor under oil without adding a spike. WTI is stuck in a $60 to $63 band.
Oil in the low 60s keeps energy costs contained. | Contained energy caps inflation risk. | Capped inflation brings us back to 2pm and the FOMC minutes. | The January meeting held rates at 3.50% to 3.75%.
Two members voted to cut.
The minutes will show who else leaned that way.
Markets price a 90% chance of no move in March, with about 65 basis points of cuts for the full year.
If the minutes sound softer than the statement, the dollar weakens from its 97 handle and gold pushes above $4,900.
Kevin Warsh takes over as Fed Chair in May. His stance on rates and the balance sheet will shape how the market prices the back half of the year. | Investor Signal | A dovish surprise in the minutes sends front-end rates lower and the dollar toward 96. | That lifts gold miners (GDX, NEM) and EM stocks. | If the tone is neutral or firm, the current range holds and all eyes shift to Walmart Thursday. |
| |
| | |
| | | | Analog Devices Reports Into a Setup the Market Needs | ADI prints before the bell, and this one matters past the chip space. | ADI sells into autos. | Into factories. | Into defense. | When orders rise here, the build is broad. | Analysts expect a 41% EPS jump and 28% sales growth. | ADI raised prices for the first time in two years on February 1.
Cantor sees a beat and raise, pointing to better orders in data center and auto. The stock sits near all-time highs. | Here is why it matters.
The market's AI fear lives in software. ADI is on the other side: chips that turn real-world signals into data.
If ADI beats and guides up, it backs the case that the hardware build has staying power past the big cloud spenders.
If it misses, the doubt that has weighed on Micron and AMD grows. | Edge Setup: | A strong ADI with upbeat auto and factory reads is a buy sign for the wider analog group (TXN, MCHP, ON). | It also supports the view that the 10Y drop shows cooling prices, not a growth scare. | A miss flips the story: the chip cycle may be thinner than it looks. |
| |
| | |
| | | | Economic Data: Building Permits, Durable Goods, Housing Starts, Industrial Production, FOMC Minutes (2:00 PM ET) | Fed Speaker: Bowman | Earnings: Analog Devices (ADI), Booking Holdings (BKNG), DoorDash (DASH), Moody's (MCO), Occidental Petroleum (OXY) | Overnight: Nikkei +1.02%, Shanghai -1.26%, FTSE 100 +1.1%, DAX +0.96% |
| |
| | |
| | | | | | The Biggest Value Gap in Crypto Right Now | February 1st erased $220B from crypto in just 24 hours. | Fear hit extreme levels as retail investors rushed to sell. | But behind the panic, whales quietly went on their biggest buying spree in months. | Why? Because while sentiment is crashing, fundamentals are accelerating at the same time. | Institutional adoption is growing, capital is returning, and a major value gap is forming between fear and reality. | One altcoin sits right at the center, strong revenue, shrinking sell pressure, and trading far below its peers. | Discover the top crypto positioned for this dip. |
| |
| | |
| | | | The S&P has failed at 7,000 four times. | It has held 6,800 three times. | The range is compressing. | Something will give. | At 2pm, the Fed speaks. | If the minutes lean dovish, the 10-year falls. | If the 10-year falls and tech still cannot lift, earnings are the constraint. | If the tone is firm, the range holds and Walmart becomes the pivot. | Two events. | Two paths. | One range. |
| |
| | |
|
|
Tidak ada komentar:
Posting Komentar