Private credit fund permanently locks withdrawals. The trade deficit widens again. Investors are starting to look past earnings and ask how solid the system really is.  ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌

February 19, 2026   |   Read Online   Dio Pouerie & Bo Nichols TQ Evening Briefing Private credit fund permanently locks withdrawals. The trade deficit widens again. Investors are starting to look past earnings and ask how solid the system really is.     MARKET STATE     Today Wasn't About Earnings. It Was About Trust. Markets swung and closed near flat. It looked calm. But the tone shifted from earnings to infrastructure. The S&P barely moved and anything priced as "reliable growth" struggled again.  Not just software. Any company trading at a premium because people assumed smooth earnings saw sellers step in. Today wasn't about misses. It was about the system those earnings sit on. • Senator Warren pressed the Fed's supervision chief about cutting or reshuffling bank examiners. • A Blue Owl private credit fund said it will never reopen withdrawals. • The U.S. trade deficit widened again. • Oil stayed elevated on Iran tension. • The dollar strengthened. Every headline touched the same nerve: what happens when stress builds. Investors are no longer asking who beat. They are asking who sees cracks first. That shift changes how risk gets priced. Trade Implication When trust in oversight and liquidity becomes part of the conversation, flexibility matters more than yield. Favor assets you can exit daily without restrictions. Cut exposure to vehicles that rely on redemption gates, side pockets, or complex funding chains.         Premier Feature     Stocks Don't Move Because of News. They Move Because of Demand Legendary investor William O'Neil said it best: "The biggest source of demand in stocks is institutional investors." When institutions move, prices follow. The problem? Nearly half of those orders are hidden in Dark Pools — invisible to most retail traders. TradeAlgo's Dark Pool A.I. scans these secret exchanges and alerts you by text message the instant unusual institutional buying or selling appears. No waiting. No reports. Just the signal. Click here to activate FREE Dark Pool SMS alerts.         WHAT ACTUALLY MOVED MARKETS     Bank Supervision Became a Live Variable Senator Warren publicly questioned Michelle Bowman about changes inside the Fed's bank supervision team. This isn't political theater. It's about incentives, and incentives decide how early risk gets confronted. Bank examiners are supposed to push back before problems grow. If examiners are cut or sidelined after banks complain, that changes how forcefully they act. Here's how that flows into markets: Less friction today can mean more risk taken quietly. Quiet risk shows up later. When it does, funding costs adjust first and equity prices react harder because the surprise is larger. Supervision works best when issues are handled early and quietly. If that early warning system weakens, surprises get bigger. This is not about banks failing tomorrow. It's about how quickly risk is addressed. If issues are discovered late, repricing is sharper. Execution Bias Do not assume lighter supervision equals easy gains for bank stocks. Watch regional bank funding spreads and deposit flows closely. If confidence dips, funding markets will move before earnings reports do.       Private Credit Just Redefined Liquidity Blue Owl's private credit fund froze withdrawals months ago. Now it says those withdrawals will never reopen. Loans were sold near par value, and even so, investors cannot access their money. That's the part investors are focusing on. A fund can report stable asset values and still lock investors in. That realization changes how the entire category is priced. • Investors bought private credit for steady income. • Withdrawals paused. • The product stopped behaving like income and started behaving like locked capital. • From there, required yields rise and secondary discounts widen. This is not about widespread defaults. It's about liquidity terms becoming visible. When people realize they cannot get out quickly, they price that restriction into similar funds. That means higher required returns and wider spreads across the sector. Execution Bias Pay attention to redemption terms, not just reported loan performance. Track secondary market discounts to net asset value. If private credit discounts widen while software-heavy borrowers face margin pressure, spreads can move fast.       The Trade Deficit Confirms the Funding Loop The U.S. goods deficit widened again in December. The yearly number set a record. That sounds negative at first glance. But here's the clean chain: • U.S. consumers import goods. • Foreign companies accumulate dollars. • Those dollars flow into Treasuries and U.S. securities. • Funding markets stay supported. • The dollar remains firm. The deficit does not scream recession. It confirms that global savings still cycle through U.S. markets. As long as that recycling continues, U.S. assets remain central. Execution Bias Don't trade deficit headlines as immediate recession signals. Look at the mix of imports, especially capital goods. If business equipment imports stay strong, investment demand remains alive.         From Our Partners     Why is this AI stock still going up? AI fears have crushed tech stocks. Yet one under-the-radar AI company is still quietly climbing. A 50-year Wall Street veteran says while AI will devastate many familiar names, it will create massive winners — and this is his top pick. He's now revealing the name and ticker live, free of charge. Click here to see his #1 AI stock to buy now.         TAPE & FLOW     Money Didn't Leave. It Shifted. Capital stayed in the market. It just moved. • Consumer staples outperformed. • Large banks held steady. • High-multiple software sold again. • Energy stocks stayed supported. • The dollar strengthened. Volatility remained elevated but controlled. Options positioning has lightened compared to earlier this month.  At the same time, prediction markets are attracting attention. Traders are choosing contracts that settle on simple yes-or-no outcomes. When price paths feel uncertain, traders gravitate toward fixed outcomes. Ambiguity shrinks. In equities, breadth narrowed again. The equal-weight index lagged the cap-weighted benchmark. That means fewer stocks are driving index returns. When leadership narrows, downside risk increases if those leaders stumble. This isn't panic. It's concentration. Execution Bias In concentrated markets, reduce position size in crowded trades. Don't mistake a flat index for broad stability. If leadership weakens, the move can accelerate quickly.         POWER & POLICY     Oil Is Back in the Inflation Conversation Oil moved higher on renewed talk of possible strikes on Iran and visible U.S. naval deployments. Here's how energy shocks typically play out: • Oil rises sharply. • Cyclical stocks weaken. • Credit spreads widen. • The dollar strengthens further. Right now, only the first step is clearly in motion.  Oil is higher. Credit spreads remain contained. Cyclicals are mixed. The dollar is firm but orderly. That means markets see risk, but not disruption. Still, oil in the mid-60s matters. Energy had been helping inflation cool. If crude stays elevated, inflation expectations stop falling. That puts pressure on both margins and valuation multiples. At the same time, U.S. policymakers appear careful about escalation. Messaging emphasizes restraint even while military posture strengthens. Markets are pricing tension, not immediate conflict. Trade Implication If oil remains elevated while growth slows, inflation expectations can firm again. That combination pressures both corporate profits and equity multiples. Watch credit spreads closely. If they widen, energy risk is spreading beyond commodities.         From Our Partners     7 Income Machines Built to Make You Rich The 7 Stocks to Buy and Hold Forever aren't just plays for the next quarter - they're built to deliver for decades.  These are blue-chip companies with fortress balance sheets, elite dividend track records, and the staying power to outperform in bull and bear markets alike.  Some are Dividend Kings, others are on the path there, and all are proven wealth compounding machines.  Download the full list now - before it disappears behind the paywall.         ONE LEVEL DEEPER     Supervision and Liquidity Interact After 2008, bank supervision changed. Examiners were empowered to act early. The goal was simple: fix problems before markets noticed. If supervision credibility weakens, timing shifts and surprises get larger. Banks may still report strong capital ratios. But risk adjustments may occur later. When adjustments happen later, they happen faster. Now layer private credit liquidity tightening on top. If oversight appears softer while withdrawals are restricted, both buffers weaken at once. That combination increases the chance that separate issues become connected. Edge Setup Monitor regional bank CDS spreads and wholesale funding rates. Track discounts in private credit secondary markets. If both begin widening at the same time, correlation risk rises. Invalidation comes if funding markets stay calm and private credit vehicles regain flexibility.         U.S. MARKETS CLOSE       THE CLOSE     A senator pressed a regulator. A credit fund locked withdrawals permanently. The trade deficit widened again. Oil moved higher. Each story touches system reliability. Supervision affects how early risk is spotted. Liquidity rules affect how fast investors can exit. Trade flows affect how funding returns to U.S. markets. Energy prices affect inflation pressure. If oversight weakens while liquidity tightens, funding markets will show stress first. If oil stays high and inflation firms, valuation pressure builds next. If both remain stable, markets stay selective rather than unstable. Stay focused on funding, liquidity, and oversight. Those move faster than earnings when confidence shifts.       Update your email preferences or unsubscribe here © 2026 Traders & Quants, LLC 522 S. Hunt Club Blvd Suite 119 Apopka, FL 32703, United States Terms of Service