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The Brutal Truth About Yesterday's Jobs Report |
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Dear reader, |
Touch off the rockets! Light the sparklers! |
We learned yesterday that the United States economy added a boffo 130,000 January non-farm payrolls. |
A Dow Jones survey of economists had forecast a mere 55,000 January non-farm payrolls. |
Thus the United States unemployment rate — officially — reduced from 4.4% to 4.3%. |
We likewise learned that January payroll expansion posted the highest advance since December 2024. |
The president exulted over the news… and once again dug his thumb into Federal Reserve chairman Powell's poor eyes: |
GREAT JOBS NUMBERS, FAR GREATER THAN EXPECTED! The United States of America should be paying MUCH LESS on its Borrowings (BONDS!). We are again the strongest Country in the World, and should therefore be paying the LOWEST INTEREST RATE, by far. |
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Not High-Paying Jobs |
Yet what sorts of occupations posted the largest January gains? Were they artificial intelligence savants? Factory employees? |
They were not. The health care field came in tops at 82,000 positions. "Social assistance" positions, meantime, came in second at 42,000. |
These two categories accounted for nearly all January net job creation. |
Heather Long, chief economist with Navy Federal Credit Union: |
The surprisingly strong job gains in January were driven mainly by health care and social assistance. But it is enough to stabilize the job market and send the unemployment rate slightly lower. This is still a largely frozen job market, but it is stabilizing… |
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Just so. Yet "stabilizing" constitutes very faint praise indeed. Nonetheless… |
I believe I can identify in general, health care work. Yet what precisely is social assistance work? What type of labor does a social assistance worker perform? |
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Social Assistance Is Social Work |
CareerOneStop informs me that social assistance workers: |
Assist other social and human service providers in providing client services in a wide variety of fields, such as psychology, rehabilitation, or social work, including support for families. |
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May assist clients in identifying and obtaining available benefits and social and community services. May assist social workers with developing, organizing, and conducting programs to prevent and resolve problems relevant to substance abuse, human relationships, rehabilitation, or dependent care. |
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I confess that I have the compassion of a cat. The milk of human kindness does not course through my ice-choked veins… and I have resigned myself to Hell. |
Thus I lack the compassion required of a social assistance worker. Yet I am deeply grateful that the Lord has infused others with that compassion. |
Ours is a tearful and sorrowful vale… and let us be thankful that such kind souls exist to assist the needful across the perilous valley. |
Yet the median annual social assistance salary comes in at a lean $45,120. It is not "high-paying." |
And is it truly a healthful economy when social assistance positions register the second-largest employment gains? |
I begin to harbor doubt. |
American Optimism Has Nosedived |
Yet perhaps these social assistance laborers will be required in the times ahead. |
That is because a new Gallup poll reveals that American optimism has plunged to record depths. |
Since 2008, Gallup has run an annual survey, the National Health and Well-Being Index, by title. About which: |
The index provides an in-depth view of Americans' wellbeing and offers insights into their attitudes and behaviors at the national, state and community levels. It examines this through five interrelated elements that make up wellbeing: career (formerly known as purpose), social, financial, physical and community. |
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Do Americans expect their lives to be better or worse in five years?, asked Gallup. The latest survey reveals that: |
The percentage of U.S. adults who anticipate high-quality lives in five years declined to 59.2% in 2025, the lowest level since measurement began nearly two decades ago. |
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Since 2020, future life ratings have fallen a total of 9.1 percentage points, projecting to an estimated 24.5 million fewer people who are optimistic about the future now versus then. Most of that decline occurred between 2021 and 2023, but the ratings dropped 3.5 points between 2024 and 2025. |
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More: |
As of Quarter 4, 2025, the percentage of American adults who rate both their current and future lives high enough to be classified as "thriving" dropped to 48.0%, down over 11 points from the 59.2% high measured in June 2021, six months after the first public rollout of the COVID-19 vaccine. |
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The Economy Added 1 Million Less Jobs Than Originally Reported |
If the United States labor market was so mighty… why do so many Americans believe their five-year prospects are bleak? |
Perhaps Gallup conducts a botched survey that gives off false readings. I hazard it is possible. |
I hope — in fact — that Gallup in fact gives off false readings. |
Yet we also learned yesterday that the Bureau of Labor Statistics has revised its unemployment data… downward. |
Since Jan. 2021, the bureau has overestimated non-farm employment by over one million jobs. |
One million jobs! |
We are also informed that the United States economy took on a mere 181,000 payrolls in 2025. |
The bureau's initial estimate was 584,000 payrolls. |
Thus monthly employment gains in 2025 averaged a weak and wan 15,000 per month. |
And so I am inclined to accept Gallup's pessimistic gauge of American optimism. |
The employment numbers do not encourage, despite official statistics. |
If labor trends run on existing tracks, I hazard social assistance will soon rank not second in job growth — but first in job growth. |
Tens and tens of thousands of social assistance positions will blossom each month. |
The Bureau of Labor Statistics will gloat about the booming job market. |
And the nation will be poorer. |
Brian Maher |
for Freedom Financial News |
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