 | Source: Marketscreener |
| What is this project? | FCAS stand for Future Combat Air System. It is one of the most important European defense programs for the next 20 years. The project was launched in 2017 by France and Germany. Spain joined two years later. France leads the fighter aircraft pillar. Germany leads the drone component. Spain leads the sensors and electronic systems. Companies involved are Dassault Aviation, Airbus, Safran, and Indra Sistemas. | This project aims to build next-generation air combat system to replace current fighter jets by around 2040. The FCAS is not just a new fighter jet. It is a system of systems. It should combine many tools into one connected network. This jet will be stealthy, fast, and highly digital. It will also fly with drones. Some will be small and expendable. Other larger and reusable. They ca jam enemy radar, collect intel, or carry missiles. They will also act as decoy to confuse the enemy's defenses. | Another key part is the combat cloud. This is a secure digital network. It will connect aircraft, drones, satellites, ships, and ground forces. The goal is real time data sharing. If one sensor detects a threat, all connected units will know about it. This will allow faster decisions and better coordination. AI will be integrated to process the huge amount of data. | | | The project will therefore combine: | - AI | - Space assets | - Data warfare | - Drone swarming | - Cyber resilience | The FCAS project is expected to cost over 100 billion euros. | Why FCAS matters geopolitically? | The FCAS is not only a military project. It is also an industrial and political one. For Europe, this project represents three pillars: | - Strategic autonomy | - Industrial power | - Balance within NATO | It is a way to enhance its defense capabilities and protect EU's aerospace industries and jobs. But it is also a way reduce dependance on American military systems. Europe depends heavily on them. Many countries have bought the F-35 from the U.S. This dependance ties users to U.S. technology and support systems. | Challenges to the project | Industrial rivalry. This is a crucial challenge for this project. There are tensions between Dassault and Airbus. They disagree on leadership, intellectual property, and workshare distribution. The distribution was fixed ten years ago. But Dassault wants more autonomy on the project. Airbus and Indra on the other hand want to stick to the plan and have equal shares. These tensions raise questions on the future of the project. Paris and Berlin are trying to settle the dispute. But without any success. German industrials condemn Dassault's attitude. They are trying to push Germany to develop its own jet. In their vision, there would be two jets inside the FCAS project. Although they would still be connected through the combat cloud. They also argue that this idea makes sense of an operational point of view. Germany's air forces need air defense capacities. France on the other side also needs its jets to be able to land on aircraft carriers and transport nuclear weapons. | But this option would be very costly. The project is already expected to cost over 100 billion euros in development over its lifetime. As a comparison the Rafale development cost was around 45 billion and Eurofighter around 60 billion. A state supporting such as project on its own will have to provide a huge budget over decades. This is difficult in times of economic pressure and political changes. Defense budgets must balance many priorities and fighter jets are not the only assets to fund. Plus, future elections could affect the programs. | Also, if two fighter jets are in service, even if connected, it would lead to more interoperability challenges within Europe's defense and NATO. Having many different fighters means: | - Logistics complexity | - Training fragmentation | - Data-link compatibility challenges | Training, exercises, and operations would have to manage U.S. F-35 fighters, GCAS fighters and then two FCAS fighters. | Along the proposal of building two fighters, there are also rumors saying Germany could join the competing GCAP project. | Competition within Europe. The UK and Italy are working with Japan on a competing project: GCAP. GCAP stands for Global Combat Air Program. It aims to build its own next-generation fighter by 2035. Main companies involved are BAE systems, Leonardo, and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries. This means Europe has two competing 6th generation fighter programs. This creates duplication in R&D spending, reduce economies of scale and split programs. This has already been the case for the existing fighter jets, tanks, and naval projects. GCAP might also have industrial consequences. Engineers and suppliers may prefer the faster and clearer GCAP timeline. It also gives negotiation leverage. Germany points to the GCAP alternative to gain leverage inside FCAS issues. But it also shrinks FCAS export potential. States have more options to choose their fighter jet (GCAP, FCAS, U.S. jets). | Decoding geopolitics isn't a job. It's survival. | Joy |
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