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President Trump Gets Bullish on Coal – Here's How to Trade It
Coal is back in the headlines—and the market is reacting.
The catalyst is policy. On February 11, 2026, President Trump issued an executive order directing the Department of Defense to pursue long-term electricity contracts tied to coal-fired generation, framed around grid reliability and national security.
Media reports highlighted that the order is intended to provide financial support to coal plants that otherwise could have faced retirement over the next several years. Market reaction was immediate: coal-linked equities and the coal ETF complex moved higher on the news.
This is exactly the kind of setup that can create opportunity—a sudden shift in perceived demand visibility for an industry that's often priced as "structurally declining."
Why this matters for coal prices and coal stocks
Coal is not just a commodity trade—it's also a cash-flow and policy trade.
When investors believe coal demand is shrinking, coal producers and coal-linked equities can get valued as melting ice cubes. But when policy steps in to support coal-fired generation—especially via long-term contracts—markets tend to re-rate the space quickly because:
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Plant retirements can be delayed
Keeping capacity online can preserve demand for thermal coal longer than expected.
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Revenue visibility improves
Long-term contracts can stabilize offtake expectations for plant operators and, indirectly, fuel suppliers.
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Risk appetite rises in a hated sector
Coal is frequently under-owned. A policy jolt can trigger fast positioning shifts.
That said, coal remains volatile and politically sensitive. A policy-driven rally can fade if implementation becomes messy, faces legal challenges, or fails to translate into durable coal burn.
So the practical approach is to define the exposure method up front: single-stock torque vs. diversified basket exposure.
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Option 1: Buy individual coal stocks
Single names can outperform on strong tape—but they also carry company-specific risk: mine disruptions, contract terms, cost inflation, regulatory headlines, and quarterly volatility.
Two names that commonly show up in coal discussions are below.
Company: Peabody Energy (SYM: BTU)
Large-scale producer with significant operating leverage to coal cycles
Peabody is one of the largest publicly traded coal companies, with a footprint that gives it meaningful leverage to coal price swings and demand expectations. In a policy-driven tape, large, liquid names often become the first stop for traders seeking exposure.
BTU last traded around $34.97.
How BTU can benefit in this setup
Key risk
Company: Hallador Energy (SYM: HNRG)
Smaller-cap coal exposure with higher volatility
Hallador is a smaller coal producer, and smaller names can sometimes deliver higher "torque" during sector rotations because flows matter more and the shareholder base can change quickly.
HNRG last traded around $19.85.
How HNRG can benefit
Key risk
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Option 2: Gain broader exposure with a coal ETF
Coal is an industry where diversification can be especially valuable. Commodity equities can move together, but single names still carry idiosyncratic risk—operational issues, geography, customer concentration, and balance sheet differences.
ETF: Range Global Coal Index ETF (SYM: COAL)
The diversified "basket" approach to coal equities
COAL is built to provide exposure across coal-related companies, including both thermal and metallurgical coal businesses.
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COAL's net expense ratio is commonly listed at 0.85%.
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The ETF holds a basket of coal-exposed companies; third-party breakdowns show top positions including names such as Warrior Met Coal, Whitehaven Coal, Alpha Metallurgical Resources, and Peabody Energy (weights shift over time).
COAL last traded around $25.92.
Dividend angle
COAL has also paid an annual distribution recently reported around $0.5999 paid at the end of 2025 (with an ex-date near Dec. 30), following a smaller distribution the prior year.
Dividend amounts can vary meaningfully year to year for thematic/industry ETFs, especially when underlying holdings are cyclical.
Why COAL can make sense here
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It reduces single-stock blowup risk.
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It can capture a sector-wide re-rating if policy headlines remain supportive.
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It's a cleaner "theme trade" when the objective is exposure to coal as a category, not just one operator.
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Are there any other coal/energy stocks you're buying right now? What other sectors of the market are you focusing on in 2026? Hit "reply" to this email and let us know your thoughts!
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