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Dear Fellow Investor,
This Obesity Stock Just Doubled in a Day
If you’ve been following our work for any length of time, you know we’ve been pounding the table on obesity drug stocks for a while now. Not because it’s trendy (though it is), but because the market opportunity is one of the biggest in modern healthcare, and the winners could be worth tens of billions in coming years.
This week delivered a perfect reminder of why we’ve stayed locked on this theme.
Structure Therapeutics (SYM: GPCR) just put on a jaw-dropping show. The stock basically doubled in a single day after the company released topline Phase 2b data from its ACCESS obesity study for aleniglipron, its once-daily oral small-molecule GLP-1 receptor agonist.
Let’s rewind for a second.
We first highlighted Structure back in late June, when it traded around $22. Fast forward to today and shares are hovering near the high-$60s after this surge. That’s a massive move in a short period of time, and it didn’t happen on vibes. It happened because the data impressed Wall Street in a category where data is everything.
Why the Aleniglipron data mattered
In the 36-week Phase 2b ACCESS trial, patients on higher doses of aleniglipron produced placebo-adjusted weight loss in the low-teens, with the top end reaching roughly the mid-teens percent in some cohorts. Importantly, the company said weight loss showed no clear plateau at 36 weeks, implying there may be more runway with longer treatment.
That “no plateau” nugget is a big deal. One of the key questions for any obesity therapy is: does weight loss keep compounding, or does it stall out early? If Structure can show durable, continuing loss in later-stage trials, that positions aleniglipron to compete not only as a convenient pill, but as a potentially best-in-class oral option.
Another crowd-pleaser: safety and tolerability. Nausea and vomiting are common across GLP-1s, and Structure did see GI side effects, including vomiting rates that may be higher than some peers at certain doses. But they also tested a lower starting dose that improved tolerability—a sign management is thinking about real-world adherence, not just headline efficacy. The company also reported a relatively clean safety profile without major liver or cardiovascular red flags.
Bottom line: Structure delivered the kind of combo the market wants, strong efficacy, oral convenience, and manageable safety.
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Wall Street response: targets jumped
Following the readout, BMO Capital raised its price target to $130 and reiterated an outperform rating. Their rationale was straightforward: the ACCESS data strengthened confidence in aleniglipron’s obesity potential, pushed their estimated probability of success higher, and supports a multi-billion-dollar peak sales outlook over the next decade.
When analysts start talking about multi-billion-dollar retail potential on Phase 2b data, it tells you two things:
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The obesity pie is enormous.
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The market is starving for credible new entrants beyond Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly.
And that brings us to our next point…
Oral GLP-1 is the holy grail
Yes, injectables dominate today. Wegovy and Zepbound are household names for a reason.
But oral obesity drugs are the next frontier. Pills are easier to manufacture at scale, simpler for physicians to prescribe, and far more accessible for patients who hesitate at weekly injections. If Structure succeeds through Phase 3 and secures approval, it could open a much wider funnel of demand.
Structure isn’t alone here, Eli Lilly’s oral GLP-1 candidate orforglipron is moving fast. But aleniglipron’s Phase 2b results suggest a credible shot at competing on efficacy, and maybe even surpassing certain dose comparisons if later data backs it up.
Remember: in obesity, percentage points matter. A drug that delivers a few extra points of weight loss, with a tolerable profile, can win huge share.
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The other name still on our radar: Viking Therapeutics (SYM: VKTX)
We also continue to watch Viking Therapeutics, another obesity name we’ve highlighted many times.
VKTX is trading around the high-$30s right now, and we wouldn’t be surprised to see another explosive move higher if its next clinical milestones deliver.
Most recently, Viking initiated its VANQUISH Phase 3 program for VK2735, its dual GLP-1/GIP agonist. The Phase 3 setup includes two major studies—one in adults with obesity and another in obese/overweight adults with type 2 diabetes—running 78 weeks and enrolling thousands of participants.
Why is that important?
Because Phase 3 is where real value gets unlocked. Positive Phase 2 trials get you on the map. Positive Phase 3 trials get you into the club.
And Viking isn’t going in blind. VANQUISH is built off its Phase 2 VENTURE data, where VK2735 showed double-digit weight loss in just 13 weeks, with the highest cohort around the mid-teens percent. That’s a very strong early signal.
What’s next for Viking
Management has also been clear they’re aiming for breadth in development, not a one-shot program. Alongside the weekly injectable, they’re continuing work on:
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an oral tablet formulation of VK2735
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a potential monthly maintenance regimen, designed to hold weight loss with less frequent dosing
That kind of lifecycle strategy matters because obesity treatment isn’t a 3-month sprint. It’s long-term disease management. Companies that offer multiple dosing options (weekly, monthly, oral) can capture more patients across more use cases.
Don’t ignore the M&A backdrop
Finally, there’s still the very real possibility of a buyout wave in obesity.
Big Pharma has zero interest in missing the next mega-category. Pfizer is a perfect example: after its internal GLP-1 attempts stumbled, CEO Albert Bourla has been openly aggressive about rebuilding the company’s obesity pipeline through deals. Pfizer just spent billions acquiring Metsera and today announced another GLP-1 partnership, underscoring how serious they are about buying their way into the market.
That doesn’t mean Viking (or Structure) will get bought tomorrow. But it does mean high-quality mid-cap obesity developers are on the radar of cash-rich giants who need a seat at the table.
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