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Click here before the deal disappears. | | Good morning: | We hope you had a great Thanksgiving. Now, we're back with a busy trading day ahead of us. We'll be digging into the top trading ideas on a short-trading day… | A data center failure froze futures trading across the board. Equity futures. FX futures. Commodities. Treasuries. Everything. It happened right as the US returned from a holiday, in a shortened session. | Liquidity is thin, and traders are flying blind until the system comes back online. | When price discovery breaks, the risk goes straight up. Expect erratic moves once trading resumes. | At the same time, markets are still leaning toward a December Fed rate cut. That belief has been enough to keep buyers around even after a rough month. Yields keep drifting lower. Stocks want to climb. It feels more like hope than conviction, but it is the only story holding the tape together right now. | Meanwhile, gold is ripping again and is on track for its fourth straight monthly gain. That is not what you see when traders are fully comfortable. It is hedge demand. It is doubt. | It is a sign that underneath the surface, people are uneasy about liquidity, inflation, or the next policy step. When gold trades like this, risk assets usually notice at some point. | The other thing to watch is retail. Black Friday sets the tone for the year-end. Investors are trying to figure out if the consumer is finally tapped out or if we get one more strong spending wave. | The economic data has been uneven, so this weekend matters more than usual for discretionary, staples, and anything tied to household demand. | Put it all together, and we are walking into a market that wants to go higher but keeps getting reminders that the foundation is still shaky. CME going down on a holiday weekend is the worst possible timing. Rate cut hope is the only real tailwind. Gold and the consumer are the warning signs. | We'll talk about it all in 15 minutes. | So, let's get going this morning… | See you soon, | Garrett Baldwin |
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