Summary
- Fiserv has been sold unmercifully since March, but is starting to show signs of a rebound.
- A recent MACD crossover and record-low RSI readings point to a shift in momentum to the bulls.
- Add in the fact that some analysts see more than 50% upside, and we could be looking at the mother of all comeback stories.
Fiserv Inc. (NASDAQ: FISV) has endured one of the harshest selloffs of any large-cap stock this year. FISV stock, which was close to $240 just a few months ago, was trading at $60 on the morning before Thanksgiving, down 50% in the past month alone. Yet beneath the wreckage, there are signs that the tide may finally be turning.
After months of relentless selling, certain momentum indicators are suddenly green.
The stock’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) is indicating extremely oversold conditions, while its Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) just logged a bullish crossover.
Together, they suggest that sellers might be getting tired, and the scene could soon be set for a rebound.
For investors who thrive on contrarian setups, this looks like a textbook opportunity.
Here are two reasons to load up on FISV, and one to stay away.
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Reason #1 to Load Up: The Technical Reversal Setup
Two key indicators suggest the selling pressure could be exhausted. The MACD indicator tracks momentum changes by comparing two moving averages, and a bullish crossover occurs when the shorter-term line rises above the longer-term one. Fiserv's MACD saw such a crossover recently.
Fiserv’s RSI strengthens this narrative. Any readings below 30 on the RSI indicate oversold conditions; readings below 20 signal capitulation. Fiserv’s RSI has been as low as 13 in recent weeks and is now stands around 18. Yet the stock is showing signs of stabilizing. Buyers have been quietly snapping up anything near $60 since last week, and if shares can hold above that level into December, it would signal that the worst of the selling may be over.
Reason #2 to Load Up: Fundamentals Support a Recovery
Supporting the technical setup is Fiserv’s fundamental story. Despite the collapse, the company continues to post near-record quarterly revenue and decent margins.
It is profitable, cash-generative, and well capitalized. The stock’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is at just 9, its lowest in decades, helping form an increasingly attractive risk/reward profile.
For context, Fiserv shares are trading at 2017 levels—even though revenue, product breadth, and profitability are near their best levels in years.
The team over at Susquehanna recently reiterated its Buy rating on the stock, along with a $99 target, implying there’s more than 50% upside from current levels. For investors looking for a bargain buy ahead of the holidays, it might not get much better than this.
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A Reason to Stay Away: Some Still Urge Caution
Having said that, however, sentiment remains fragile. Analysts at Weiss Ratings and Jefferies have both urged caution in recent weeks, arguing that while Fiserv’s valuation might appear attractive right now, the company has a lot of work to do to win back investor confidence.
That’s arguably the core risk here. A single MACD crossover doesn’t guarantee a sustained rally, even if the RSI is also moving up from extremely oversold levels. Cheap stocks remain cheap when sentiment is damaged, and market perception can take several quarters of good results to repair.
A Compelling Risk-Reward Setup
Despite those caveats, though, the risk-reward profile is undoubtedly leaning heavily to the upside. Technical exhaustion, deep value, and stabilizing fundamentals rarely align so neatly. If you’ve managed to avoid getting caught in what has been a brutal selloff, and if you have the right kind of appetite for risk, there’s quite a bit to like about Fiserv right now.
In the short term, $60 remains the key line to watch. Continued consolidation above it would help confirm that the worst of the selling pressure has been broken. The real test now is whether management can rebuild trust quickly enough to turn momentum into conviction. If they can, the bears may have ruled 2025, but it’s the bulls who could easily own 2026.
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