| TQ Morning Briefing | Calm Before the Catalysts: Fed Decision, Tech Earnings, and Trump-Xi Meeting Loom | | | | | | U.S. equity markets climbed again Tuesday, extending their record run as investors balanced pre-Fed calm with mounting anticipation around Big Tech earnings. | The "Magnificent 7" added another 1.3%, lifting the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to new all-time highs, even as most other sectors drifted lower and breadth narrowed. | Treasury yields held near 4%, oil continued its war of attrition at $60 per barrel. Gold fell toward $3,980 an ounce, marking its lowest close in weeks. The dollar was flat against major peers, while volatility remained muted with the VIX near 15. | Earnings season remains strong, with 87% of companies beating expectations and median year-over-year growth of 11%. UPS surged after a sharp rebound in profit, and UnitedHealth raised its outlook, both reinforcing corporate resilience. | Microsoft's finalized 27% stake in OpenAI, alongside PayPal's integration with ChatGPT, added fresh fuel to the AI narrative driving markets to new heights. |
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| | | | | | Today may be the most consequential trading session of the quarter. The Federal Reserve is set to announce another 25-basis-point rate cut, continuing its cautious effort to insure against a potential slowdown. | The ongoing government shutdown has deprived policymakers of key labor and inflation data, forcing the Fed to navigate in near-fog conditions. Markets fully expect Chair Powell to stress flexibility and risk management, while signaling that the long-running balance-sheet runoff may be nearing an end. | After the close, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta will deliver their quarterly results, setting the tone for the second half of earnings week. | With the S&P 500 up more than 17% year-to-date and valuations stretched, investors will be searching for proof that the AI boom is broadening beyond a handful of dominant names. The rally's concentration has grown stark: over the past five sessions, technology remains the only sector to outperform the index. |  | Reuters Business @ReutersBiz |  |
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WATCH: Nvidia on the verge of becoming the first company worth $5 trillion after the chipmaker said it had $500 billion in bookings for its artificial intelligence processors and that it will build seven new supercomputers for the US Department of Energy reut.rs/3JwKk7c | |  | | | 11:10 AM • Oct 29, 2025 | | | | | | 9 Likes 5 Retweets | 4 Replies |
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| Yet robust margins across industrials, financials, and utilities suggest the market's underlying foundation remains sturdier than headlines imply. | For now, investors continue to climb a quiet wall of worry, balancing belief in earnings and liquidity against the unease of unknown data. | Every new high feels less like a sprint and more like a controlled ascent, steady, deliberate, and rooted in faith that the expansion still has room to breathe. |
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| | | | The Federal Reserve's two-day meeting concludes this afternoon, with a quarter-point rate cut to the 3.75%–4.00% range fully priced in. Chair Powell's remarks will carry extra weight given the lack of recent employment or inflation figures during the fifth week of the government shutdown. | The statement is expected to emphasize a "moderate" growth outlook and acknowledge lingering uncertainty. Several analysts anticipate Powell will confirm that the Fed's $6.6 trillion balance sheet has reached its lower comfort range, setting the stage for an end to quantitative tightening before year-end. | The Bank of Canada also meets today and is widely expected to follow the Fed's easing path, while the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan remain on hold. Together, their actions are shaping a synchronized turn toward accommodation that is reintroducing stability to global currency and bond markets heading into the final quarter. |
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| | | | | Trade Winds & Global Shifts |
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| | | President Trump's Asia tour continues to dominate the geopolitical backdrop. After signing a rare-earth supply deal in Tokyo with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, Trump arrives in South Korea today for bilateral meetings ahead of Thursday's high-stakes summit with China's Xi Jinping in Busan. |  | Bloomberg @business |  |
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US President Donald Trump said he reached a trade agreement with South Korea as he attended a dinner hosted by South Korean President Lee Jae Myung |  | bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Trump Says He Reached A Deal On Trade With South Korea US President Donald Trump said he reached a trade agreement with South Korea as he attended a dinner hosted by South Korean President Lee Jae Myung at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit. |
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| | | 10:20 AM • Oct 29, 2025 | | | | | | 53 Likes 9 Retweets | 5 Replies |
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| The Japan agreement strengthens supply-chain independence from Beijing and underscores Washington's push to secure critical mineral flows across the Indo-Pacific. | Analysts expect the Trump–Xi meeting to yield an initial tariff rollback in exchange for Beijing's promise to curb fentanyl exports and ease export restrictions on rare earths. | While the policy impact may take years to materialize, the optics of cooperation are already filtering into markets as a sign that trade and technology rivalry may be stabilizing into a more predictable framework. |
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| | | | | | | D.C. in the Driver's Seat |
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| | | | | Pending Home Sales Fed Interest Rate Decision |
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| | | | MSFT FB GOOG CAT NOW VZ BA KLAC ADP CVS SBUX EQIX FISV AEP CMG PSX PSA EBAY ETR OTIS PRU |
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| | | | Asia: Nikkei +2.17%, Shanghai +0.70% Europe: FTSE +0.59%, DAX +0.02% |
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| | | | | | | | Markets continue to lean toward optimism. Confidence in earnings and policy support is outweighing data gaps and political noise. As traders brace for Powell's words and Big Tech's numbers, the broader tone remains constructive: risk appetite anchored in discipline, not exuberance. | The climb may be slow, but it is steady, and for now, belief in soft landings and stronger margins continues to hold. |
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