(The Vol Signal Everyone's Missing)
| | Don Kaufman here. | I woke up this morning and the S&Ps were up 40 points. | By the time I hopped on my live trading room session, they were already cut that in half. But here's what's got me perplexed - and this is the signal everyone's missing. | The Market That Doesn't Trust Itself | When you're watching the S&Ps, trade on low volume in the pre-market, it tells you something. Lower contract size means there's just not a lot of capital confirming what you're seeing on the screen right now. | But here's the kicker - and I'm dead serious about this: trust nothing you've seen in the pre-market.Let me paint the picture: Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday of last week were some of the quietest trading sessions I've seen. | If the market's heartbeat was this flat, you'd be dead. One sign of life on Wednesday around the Fed announcement, then back to meandering like a drunk in the woods. | But the volume numbers tell a different story. | | Featured Event | AI Freedom System LIVE - Sept 30, 2PM ET. FREE for attendees: NVIDIA's $100B Backdoor Report. While everyone pays $180+, Garrett found the companies NVIDIA depends on trading for pennies. | | |
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| | ⚡ Levels & Triggers | This is where we get tactical. | Home Depot (HD): Sitting at $407 – "right on the dance floor." The probability of a touch this week is ~54%. This level matters. A break lower could trigger acceleration. Bank of America (BAC): Put spreads expiring in 4 days – needs downside follow-through immediately. Energy (XLE): Short spreads already paying, hitting the lower edge of expected move.
| Tesla (TSLA): Implied vol is at 71% this week, pricing in a $30 expected move, like it has earnings. Options skew is unusual – calls are being bid while puts are softer. Something is brewing. | |
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| | 🗓 Catalyst Calendar | Sept 30: EV tax credit expires – drove massive Q3 Tesla orders, but Q4 demand cliff ahead. Oct 1: Potential government shutdown, jobs report uncertain.
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