| Ripple Effect — August 1, 2025
Right on cue, markets are ending the week on a sour note as August rolls around and President Trump’s tariff tweaks are pointing higher, not lower.
Whether or not President Trump had made the move, markets were likely to pull back anyway.
That’s just a function of market statistics – August is just a poor month for stocks, and why we pounded the table in July to take some profits off the table and raise some cash.
Meanwhile, today’s mild selloff will likely bleed further in the coming weeks. Why? Because market volatility is on the low side for this time of year:  Market volatility tends to have a spring spike, lower in the summer, and rise starting in August. Trump’s tariff regime has exacerbated the trends. (Source: Topdown Charts). With tariff tantrums back on the menu, investors might want to look back on the spring volatility – and plan accordingly over the next few months.
Remember, volatility isn’t just markets going down. It means bigger one-day moves in the market. So if you haven’t taken some recent profits off the table and increased your cash position yet, today’s market drop is a flashing signal to do so.
For more aggressive traders, like the members of our new Grey Swan Trading Fraternity, we already forecast a rise in volatility earlier in the week– and can’t help but note that our tracking ETF for that trend, UVXY, is up 10.3% this morning – and about 19% since Tuesday.
Good start. Congratulations to you if you acted on your first recommendation.
But if you took action and bought this ETF, you should take profits now.
A 19% gain in just a few days on an ETF is a great return – turning a $10,000 investment into nearly $12,000 – at a time when the market has turned south.
However, market volatility can be fickle. That’s why it’s best to use UVXY for short-term events like the one we forecast this week.
Whether you joined our Grey Swan Trading Fraternity service or not, please take profits.
But given the nature of volatility, if you took action on this ETF, take your profits now going into the weekend.
~ Addison P.S. Meanwhile, assets like gold, which are also selling off with the markets, still look attractive.
Global money supply continues to increase, and inflationary pressures remain – and they’ll explode even higher in a market crisis, when central banks are forced to take aggressive action. Use any big down days in the metal – or related plays like silver and copper – to add to your stake there.
As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)
How did we get here? Find out in these riveting reads: Demise of the Dollar, Financial Reckoning Day, and Empire of Debt — all three books are now available in their third post-pandemic editions. You might enjoy one or all three. 
(Or… simply pre-order Empire of Debt: We Came, We Saw, We Borrowed, now available at Amazon and Barnes & Noble or if you prefer one of these sites: Bookshop.org, Books-A-Million or Target.)
Please send your comments, reactions, opprobrium, vitriol and praise to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com |
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