Hey there, friend!
What a delicious turnaround we're witnessing! After Tuesday's tech-driven stumble from record highs, markets are back to feasting as the Senate squeezed through Trump's massive spending bill with VP Vance casting the tie-breaking vote. The $3.8 trillion package extending individual tax cuts has investors cautiously optimistic, though the July 9th tariff deadline still adds some bitter seasoning to the mix. With Tesla deliveries looming and bank dividends flowing like fine wine, let's dig into this recovery feast that's got everyone hoping for seconds! Plus, try your luck and win a $50 Amazon Gift Card! 🎁
- Dan
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- Trump urges Hamas to accept 'final proposal' for 60-day Gaza ceasefire agreement
- The Dalai Lama confirms reincarnation plans with the Trust identifying the succession process
- Iran enacts law suspending cooperation with UN nuclear watchdog operations
- Ukrainian aid projects withering as Western funding commitments drop significantly
- US halts some missile shipments to Ukraine over low stockpile concerns
- Germany and the UK are preparing to sign a mutual defense assistance pact
- Fiji rejects Chinese military base proposals as Pacific islands navigate superpower rivalry
- US bombing "seriously damaged" Iran's Fordow nuclear facility, according to officials
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Chef's Pick: Spending Bill Celebration Menu |
Stock of Interest Yesterday |
Donegal Group Inc. (NASDAQ: DGICA) This P&C insurer cut its combined ratio to 91.6%, driving Q1 income up 308% to $31.96M. Now trading at 9.7x P/E with a 3.71% yield, it's reinvesting $130M from 3.5% to 5.5% bonds, backed by a $314.8M surplus. (Price at call: $20, Current price: $19.55, Analyst expectation: $22) |
LENZ Therapeutics (NASDAQ: LENZ) This presbyopia treatment pioneer is eyeing a major breakthrough with aceclidine drops, offering 8–10 hours of vision correction—double Vuity's duration—without retinal risks. With an 8/8/2025 PDUFA date, trials show 90% patient success and fewer side effects. A $60/prescription model targets 128M U.S. presbyopes, with projected $70M revenue by 2026, scaling to $350M and $3.90 EPS by 2028. Global upside includes a $125M Lotus Asia deal. Market cap: $825M; Cash: $190M. (Current Price: $30.05, Analyst expectation: $33.50) |
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Spending Bill Aftermath Strategy: $3.8 trillion package passage creates fiscal stimulus optimism despite deficit concerns. Recipe: Position in sectors benefiting from tax cuts, including small-cap domestic companies, consumer discretionary, and real estate. Corporate tax breaks are particularly favorable for technology and healthcare innovation companies. Tariff Deadline Hedging: July 9th is approaching with Trump refusing extension while Japan talks stall over rice imports and auto tariffs. Recipe: Diversify away from trade-sensitive sectors into domestic service providers, utilities, and healthcare companies with minimal international exposure. Consider defensive positioning until clarity emerges. Bank Dividend Harvest: Major lenders announcing shareholder return increases following stress test success create an income opportunity. Recipe: Accumulate high-quality banks with strong capital ratios and dividend growth potential. JPMorgan's $50B buyback and Wells Fargo's 45-cent dividend represent compelling yield plus appreciation potential. Healthcare Consolidation Play: Centene's $1.8B writedown and guidance withdrawal creates sector dislocation opportunity. Recipe: Distinguish between systematic marketplace issues versus company-specific execution problems. Quality managed care operators with better risk assessment may gain market share from distressed competitors. Tech Recovery Positioning: Apple's upgrade and broader tech pullback from records create a selective opportunity. Recipe: Focus on established tech leaders trading at discounted valuations after AI-driven selloffs. Companies with strong fundamentals and reasonable earnings multiples are positioned for recovery as sentiment normalizes. |
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BuildClub Alternative Investment Spotlight |
BuildClub is raising capital through a Reg CF offering at $4/share with a $45.57 million valuation. The company develops AI-powered pricing intelligence technology that provides real-time price comparisons across 1.5 million items in 4,000+ retail stores through browser extensions. With over $5M in sales since 2021 and 77,000+ registered customers, BuildClub is targeting the $250 billion home improvement market with expansion plans into auto parts, apparel, and electronics sectors. The company processes 17 billion data points daily, offering invaluable insights for retailers, hedge funds, and analysts while generating revenue through affiliate commissions, subscription services ($49/month+), advertising, and data licensing. BuildClub has raised $6M+ from VCs and received $350,000 in grants from Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and NVIDIA, showcasing strong industry validation. Key Investment Details: - Offering Type: Series A Preferred Stock equity
- Price Per Share: $4.00
- Valuation: $45.57 million
- Funding Goal: $10K - $4.08M
- Deadline: July 29, 2025
- Minimum Investment: $500
- Risk Level: Speculative, illiquid investment with high risk of loss
Investor Considerations: - Proven traction with 1,200+ StartEngine investors and major tech company grants
- Scalable technology platform positioned to disrupt multiple retail verticals
- Revenue diversification through affiliate, subscription, advertising, and data licensing streams
- Experienced leadership with CEO Stephen Forte holding 15 patents and a successful exit history
- Operates in a competitive pricing intelligence market with established players like Honey/Rakuten
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USD News: - Challenger Job Cuts y/y – Actual: 47.0%
- RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism (Tentative) – Actual: 50.1 | Forecast: 49.2
- ADP Non-Farm Employment Change – Actual: 99K | Forecast: 37K
- Crude Oil Inventories – Actual: -3.5M | Forecast: -5.8M
Limited Wednesday Menu: - UniFirst: Uniform maker reporting fiscal Q3 results as lone major company
- Franklin Covey Co.
- Zenvia Inc.
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Musk Takes Tesla Operations Control: CEO assumes direct oversight of Europe and US sales following deputy Omead Afshar's departure. Tom Zhu continues Asia sales oversight while taking global manufacturing responsibilities as the company reorganizes amid delivery challenges. Alibaba Cloud Southeast Asia Expansion: Chinese tech giant launching third Malaysian data center and second Philippines facility in October. Building on earlier infrastructure investments in Thailand, Mexico, and South Korea, to meet growing AI service demand. Intel Strategy Pivot Under New CEO: Lip-Bu Tan reportedly considering ending 18A chipmaking technology marketing to focus on 14A development. The strategy aims to better compete with TSMC for Apple and Nvidia business after 18A struggled with customer adoption. Bank of America Dividend Boost: Planning 8% quarterly increase to $0.28/share starting Q3 following Fed stress test success. Stress capital buffer improving 70 basis points to 2.5% with CET1 minimum requirement at 10.0%. Baidu Search Engine AI Overhaul: Chinese internet giant revamping mobile app with chatbot-like functionality for writing, drawing, and trip planning. Shifting from keyword-based to natural language searches with voice capability across Chinese dialects. Italy Tariff Impact Warning: Business lobby estimates 20 billion euro export loss and 118,000 job cuts if the US imposes 10% European tariffs. Confindustria highlights machinery, transport, and leather goods vulnerability beyond luxury products. Trump Japan Tariff Threat: President suggests forcing 30-35% tariffs on Japan, exceeding the current 24% Liberation Day level. "Very spoiled" comment indicates deteriorating negotiation atmosphere with potential retaliation implications. Northeast Asia Jet Fuel Surge: Record 350,000 metric tons shipped to Europe in June amid Middle East supply disruption fears. Lower freight rates and ample Asian supplies are driving export volumes to the highest level in nearly a year. |
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Tesla (TSLA ⬆️ 1% premarket): EV giant attempts recovery ahead of crucial Q2 delivery numbers expected around 386,000 vehicles (down 13% YoY). Musk is now directly overseeing Europe and US sales after the deputy's departure, while a six-day losing streak weighs on sentiment. Bloomberg reports the CEO taking operational control as the company battles delivery challenges. Analyst bite: Delivery numbers could determine near-term sentiment direction. Centene (CNC ⬇️ 26%): Healthcare insurer gets absolutely massacred after withdrawing 2025 profit guidance due to adverse health risk trends across 22 of 29 marketplace states. $1.8B reduction in expected risk adjustment revenue equals ~$2.75 EPS hit, with similar issues expected in remaining states. Analyst bite: Systematic underwriting problems requiring a comprehensive repricing strategy. Apple (AAPL ⬆️ 0.7% premarket): Tech giant gets fresh appetite as Jefferies upgrades to Hold from Underperform with $188.32 target (up from $170.62). Analysts believe Q3 earnings could stabilize stock despite 17% year-to-date decline from AI competition concerns. Analyst bite: Valuation becoming more attractive after significant correction. JPMorgan Chase (JPM ⬆️ modest): Banking giant leads dividend feast with quarterly payout increasing to $1.50/share plus new $50B buyback authorization. Bank of America (+8% to $0.28), Wells Fargo (to $0.45), and Goldman Sachs (to $4.00) all boosted shareholder returns post-stress tests. Analyst bite: Capital return programs reflecting strong balance sheet health. Verint Systems (VRNT ⬆️ 12%): Software firm soars on Bloomberg report of Thoma Bravo acquisition negotiations for call center solutions provider. Company down 32% YTD with ~$1.2B market cap, making it an attractive private equity target. Analyst bite: PE interest validates enterprise software recovery potential. Greenbrier (GBX ⬆️ 13%): Railroad equipment maker serves up strong Q3 beat with $1.86 non-GAAP EPS (vs $0.98 estimate) and revenue topping forecasts by $57M. Raised gross margin outlook to 17.7%-18.3% and operating margin to 10.6%-11%. Analyst bite: Rail infrastructure recovery driving operational leverage. Constellation Brands (⬇️ 0.9%): Beverage company disappoints with Q1 miss as beer business experiences 2% net sales decline driven by 3.3% volume drop. Hispanic consumer spending is pressured by economic concerns and immigration policy uncertainties. Analyst bite: Consumer discretionary headwinds affecting ethnic market segments. Paramount Global (⬆️ 0.7%): Media company gains on $16M settlement agreement with Trump over "60 Minutes" Kamala Harris interview controversy, removing legal overhang from operations. Analyst bite: Legal resolution clears path for operational focus. |
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ETF Gainers: T-Rex 2X Inverse MSTR Daily Target ETF (⬆️ 15.31%): Bitcoin proxy bears are finally getting fed Defiance Daily Target 2x Short MSTR ETF (⬆️ 14.33%): MicroStrategy pessimism is paying off Defiance Daily Target 2x Short IONQ ETF (⬆️ 13.30%): Quantum computing skeptics satisfied Direxion Daily Homebuilders & Supplies Bull 3X (⬆️ 12.52%): Construction getting leveraged appetite T-Rex 2X Inverse Tesla Daily Target ETF (⬆️ 10.91%): Tesla bears are enjoying the feast
ETF Losers: Tradr 2X Long ACHR Daily ETF (⬇️ 17.79%): Aviation tech is losing altitude badly 2x Solana ETF (⬇️ 15.91%): Alternative crypto getting grilled Defiance Daily Target 2x Long MSTR ETF (⬇️ 15.46%): Bitcoin enthusiasm served cold Volatility Shares Trust XRP 2X ETF (⬇️ 15.02%): Ripple effect working backwards T-Rex 2X Long MSTR Daily Target ETF (⬇️ 14.86%): Crypto bulls getting reality check
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For more information and to verify the accuracy of the claims made in this email, please consult the following reliable sources: - Trump to discuss Gaza, Iran with Netanyahu in Monday meeting – Reuters
- Dalai Lama says the institution of Dalai Lama will continue – Reuters
- Iran enacts law suspending cooperation with UN nuclear watchdog – Reuters
- Ukrainian aid projects wither as Western funding drops – Reuters
- US halts some missile shipments to Ukraine over low stockpiles, Politico reports – Reuters
- US bombing seriously damaged Iran's Fordow nuclear site, foreign minister says – Reuters
- Biggest stock movers: VRNT, CNC and more – Barron's
- Elon Musk assumes oversight of Tesla's Europe, US sales – Bloomberg – Seeking Alpha
- Alibaba Cloud to open new data centers in Malaysia, the Philippines – Seeking Alpha
- Bank of America plans to lift dividend by 8% after passing Fed stress test – Seeking Alpha
- Intel's new CEO reshapes chipmaking and marketing strategy – Seeking Alpha
- Baidu revamps search engine with AI features, voice functionality – Seeking Alpha
- Italy could lose €20 billion in EU funds over missed targets – Yahoo Finance
- Trump suggests he won't extend tariff pause, floats higher levels for Japan – Live updates – Yahoo Finance
- Northeast Asia sends most jet fuel cargoes since 2022 – Yahoo Finance
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Want to snag a $50 gift card? It's easy! Just open 5 Market Munchies emails by Friday, July 4 to enter. 📨 Entries close at 11:59 PM sharp, so don't miss out! The lucky winner will be randomly selected and notified via email with their prize.
Good luck! |
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