| Ripple Effect — July 30, 2025
Every day, millions of investors make decisions in part on economic data.
This morning, markets are digesting the news that GDP rose at a 3% annualized rate in the second quarter of 2025 – a sharp reversal from the negative read in the first quarter.
However, government statistics tend to get revised. Worse, today, an increasing amount of data that goes into those statistics isn’t even accurate – it’s an admitted guess:  Government statistics are increasingly based on guesswork, not facts. In this instance, CPI, which drives inflation, is usually based on the costs of about 90,000 goods across the economy. But with one-third of the data now based on an estimate — or worse, a guesstimate — it makes CPI data suspect.
This makes other measures, like PPI, suspect, making it impossible for the Fed to accurately determine inflation or its trend.
~ Addison P.S. Thanks to everyone who joined me at 10 a.m. ET yesterday morning for my urgent announcement at the Fed.
If you missed out on that urgent briefing – we've arranged to share a replay here – but only until about 2 p.m. this afternoon. It’s that timely and urgent.
In our investor’s summit replay, you’ll learn how to play any volatility caused by the tsunami effect: retail investor highs in stock market and an increasingly unstable debt picture stemming from the nation’s capital.
Our investor summit discussion lays out what could be “the pin” that pops the AI bubble and how… watch here for our forecast and details on actions to take.
As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)
How did we get here? Find out in these riveting reads: Demise of the Dollar, Financial Reckoning Day, and Empire of Debt — all three books are now available in their third post-pandemic editions. You might enjoy one or all three. 
(Or… simply pre-order Empire of Debt: We Came, We Saw, We Borrowed, now available at Amazon and Barnes & Noble or if you prefer one of these sites: Bookshop.org, Books-A-Million or Target.)
Please send your comments, reactions, opprobrium, vitriol and praise to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com |
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