| | | *together with ProsperityPub | Select Your Trading Approach | Conservative, Balanced, or Aggressive: | | No Longer Is Your Trading "Boxed In." | → Details With Nate Tucci Today @ 1PM ET! | | Good morning all, | Markets are soft here as they await this morning's jobs report data. Here is what I am looking for and why it matters. | Here's what to expect from today's (June) U.S. jobs report, released this morning due to the July 4 holiday: | Forecast Highlights | Nonfarm payrolls: Expected growth of 100,000–130,000 jobs, down from +139,000 in May.
Unemployment rate: Likely tick up to around 4.3%, up from May's steady 4.2% .
Average hourly earnings: Forecasted to rise roughly 0.3% month-over-month, moderating from May's 0.4%.
| Why It Matters | Labor market cooling: Earlier in the year, job gains averaged ~124 K/month—well below last year's ~180 K. A continued drop below 100 K per month could signal weakening in hiring demand.
Federal Reserve implications: Slowing jobs growth and a slight rise in unemployment could support market expectations for a Fed rate cut—possibly in September.
| In Summary | Expect a modest slowdown in job creation, a slight uptick in unemployment, and cooler but still solid wage growth. These trends are key for investors and the Fed as they assess whether monetary policy can finally begin to ease. | My thoughts are that data will provide a spark today and reverse the early red pre market into a possible green day for markets. Time will tell of course but that's my early thinking. | See you in the Market Masters room for all the details! | | How do you feel about the current trend in average hourly earnings? | |
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