| Ripple Effect — July 11, 2025
President Trump’s Big, Beautiful Bill will add trillions to the federal debt.
We’re critical of that debt being frontloaded – especially at a time when interest rates are at their highest level in nearly 15 years.
Fortunately, your average American household has gotten the memo.
Today’s relatively high interest rates – essentially the cost of capital – have consumers avoiding debt. And rising asset prices, including homes and 401(k) plans, are actually improving consumer finances:  American households continue to deleverage Of course, that’s just on average.
We know many consumers continue to live paycheck to paycheck. After spiking higher, the drawdown in savings—cash that can be used in an emergency—is back to pre-pandemic levels.
While the overall debt picture is ugly, in some ways it isn’t – and that it may take some more time for a debt crisis to reach a kitchen countertop near you.
~ Addison P.S. President Trump is on fire this week, adding tariffs on copper and threatening higher rates on trade partners like Canada. And targeting Vietnam as the proxy for Chinese manufacturing.
Markets are usually calm and trend higher in July, but as a centerpiece of President Trump's Great Reset plan, we’re expecting more volatility. There’s nothing run-of-the-mill about the economy or politics right now.
With the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting all-new historic highs again yesterday, we suggest deleveraging your brokerage account, too. Take some profits off the table.
Or, as our friend and mentor Bill Bonner would say on an occasion like this: “Panic now. Avoid the rush.”
As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)
How did we get here? Find out in these riveting reads: Demise of the Dollar, Financial Reckoning Day, and Empire of Debt — all three books are now available in their third post-pandemic editions. You might enjoy one or all three. 
(Or… simply pre-order Empire of Debt: We Came, We Saw, We Borrowed, now available at Amazon and Barnes & Noble or if you prefer one of these sites: Bookshop.org, Books-A-Million or Target.)
Please send your comments, reactions, opprobrium, vitriol and praise to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com |
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