| Swan Dive — July 9, 2025 Campfire Politics in Idaho Addison Wiggin Starting today, media and tech moguls descend on the annual “summer camp for billionaires,” Allen & Co.’s Sun Valley Conference—a gathering of puffy vests and golden Rolodexes.
A-list attendees Mark Zuckerberg, Tim Cook, Sam Altman, and Jeff Bezos (fresh from his Venetian wedding) will no doubt debate tariffs, AI talent wars, cable-TV mergers, and perhaps pickleball injuries.
Attendees are expecting sparks:
Meta just poached Apple’s top AI researcher, Ruoming Pang, with a “tens‑of‑millions” package—a blow to Apple’s Siri and a signal of intensified AI competition. That’s on top of the Andrew Yang whom they just acquired with a billion plus purchase of Scale AI.
We could really care less about the outing itself. But with the AI economy developing and disrupting as quickly as it is… proximity to the decisions made at this billionaires' retreat will be the stuff of tomorrow’s headlines. And will move markets. 📉 Traders Call Trump Bluster As we suspected yesterday, Tuesday’s market reaction muted talk of fresh trade conflict.
Critics like to call it the TACO trade – Trump Always Chickens Out. Those with a modicum of intelligence know the trade deals are complex and not likely to be resolved by any convenient deadline.
Trump’s critics aren’t all political hacks. “These are the words of an unhinged madman,” David Stockman, whom we’ve published in the past, posted on X. He’s referring to the “handwritten” letters the president has now sent to 14 of the trade partners he finds delinquent in their responses to today’s July 9 deadline.
“In 2024 US exports to S. Korea were $82 billion and faced a modest S. Korean tariff of 4.4%. By contrast, US imports of S. Korean goods totaled $148 billion, or 80% more, and were tariffed by Washington at a roughly similar 2.5% rate on a weighted average basis.”
“Now,” Stockman continues, “there is no chance whatsoever that this slim 1.9 percentage point difference in tariff rates had anything at all do with America's lopsided trade imbalance with S. Korea; nor did nontariff barriers, where the US is the reigning champ of the world, have anything to do with it, either.”
Stockman’s rant continues here. We find the critique worth consideration.
Stocks held ground despite Trump’s threats to raise tariffs on 14 nations, and S&P 500 forecasts were even raised by Goldman and BofA. Currency markets got spooked, with the dollar appreciating 0.5%.
Across Asia and Europe, investors treated the episode as theater—not panic—signaling a growing belief that this is negotiating positioning, not marketocalypse.
However, one resource did flinch. Hard.
Copper futures shot up 17%, marking its biggest intraday rally since the late ’80s after Trump threatened a steep 50% tariff on imports. Though cables are clinging to the narrative of trade noise, the reprieve may not last—especially as pharma duties and delayed deadlines leave risks simmering beneath calm waters.
Addison Wiggin’s team predicted the dot.com crash, the 2008 financial meltdown and the housing collapse.
Now he’s come out of retirement to issue his most important warning to date.
He says Trump was deliberately lighting the markets on fire — and it’s all part of a master plan Addison calls THE GREAT RESET.
Most Americans have no idea just how bad this could get… or more importantly why Trump is doing it.
Click here to watch Addison's urgent message while there is still time to prepare.
📉 Inflation Outlook Holding Steady Despite tariff theatrics, consumers remain unconvinced inflation is rolling back. New York Fed data confirmed one-year inflation expectations at 3%, with distant outlooks steady at 3% and 2.6%. In short, markets have priced in downside surprise—if nothing worse comes along.  Trump tariff policies have had a neglible effect on growth or inflation forecasts… so far. (Source: Bloomberg) The Dallas Fed warns Trump’s immigration clampdown could shave nearly a full percentage point off 2025 GDP—0.8 points by year-end; up to 1.5 points by 2027 under worst-case “mass deportation.” 🤖 AI Squeezes Middle Management This is a trend that will only increase. Automation isn't just threatening entry-level roles anymore. A Gusto survey of 8,500 small businesses reveals the manager-to-worker ratio tumbled from 3:1 in 2019 to 1:6 today.
Many replacements aren't from above—they're AI-powered. Microsoft recently axed 4% of staff (~9,000 jobs) to eliminate layers of management, investing instead in AI.
In Canada, Rogers Telecom dismissed 1,000 managers—some had trained their AI replacements. The AI revolution now includes middle management, and it's aggressive. 🛢️ SpaceX Now Valued at $400B Ahead of our Grey Swan Live! conversation with Matt Milner tomorrow, there’s some news on the private equity front. Elon’s space empire is preparing for a new fundraising round and a tender offering, valuing SpaceX around $400 billion—well north of December’s all-time peak.
Liquidating insider shares while still private marks the continued ascendancy of private markets. ⚖️ Tokens, Tumbles, and the Linqto Debacle Not everyone’s path to the private markets has gone according to pitch deck. Robinhood’s shortcut—offering equity “tokens” for OpenAI and SpaceX to European investors—hit turbulence when OpenAI called foul: “Not actual equity,” the company clarified on X. Robinhood shares dropped 6% and regulators in Lithuania asked for receipts.
Meanwhile, Linqto—a pioneer in retail access to private shares—collapsed into bankruptcy and is under investigation by the SEC and DOJ for securities fraud and allegedly aggressive marketing to unqualified investors.
The broader issue? Demand far outstrips supply. Most unicorns tightly restrict insider share sales, leaving hungry investors scrambling for scraps. As Matt Levine notes, this is a market where access—not analysis—is king. 🧥 The $200 Million Suit That Shook Crypto Did Zelensky wear a suit to the NATO summit? That single question has torn the seams of the crypto prediction market.
Polymarket traders bet over $200 million on whether Ukraine’s president would abandon his wartime fatigues and don formalwear by July. When Zelensky appeared in something that looked like a suit—but maybe wasn’t?—the market briefly resolved to “yes.” Cue the meltdown.
Menswear critics (yes, there are such things) declared the outfit “both a suit and not a suit.” Disgruntled bettors appealed to UMA—the so-called “decentralized truth machine”—to override the call. Now, whales in the UMA protocol are accused of gaming both sides of the dispute.
The verdict is expected today. But win or lose, Polymarket’s reputation as a blockchain arbiter of truth may not survive the tailoring debate. As it turns out, dressing up for NATO is one thing.
Dressing down $200 million in crypto? Another entirely. 📅 What’s Still Ahead This Week Last week’s flash floods in Texas claimed over 100 lives and are estimated to cost $18–22 billion, per AccuWeather. Lacking alert systems in “Flash Flood Alley,” the event reopened scrutiny on Trump-era weather agency cuts.
The NFIB Small Business Optimism and Consumer Credit reports—key indicators of Main Street resilience and household debt stress. This will be a big one considering the widening gap between consumer credit and the national savings rate.  For some reason, this chart doesn’t bother people the way it does us. (Source: St. Louis Fed.) Meanwhile, this consumer frenzy: Prime Days are on —four days of deals that hauled in $14 billion last year.
Good vibes for the fireside chats in Idaho and a nice way to ignore the tariff scuffles, middle-manager layoffs, and catastrophic floods— even if the second half of 2025 shows no signs of mellowing out.
For the discerning investor, these are the fault lines beneath the headlines: AI-driven layoffs, inflation complacency, climate risk baked into portfolios, and the ongoing trade narrative.
Wealth preservation lies in preparing for the unexpected rather than chasing the headline.
Build with purpose, hedge with insight, and position with conviction. That’s really the purpose of Grey Swan. We don’t want to react to this political drama, but be well-positioned for it.
~ Addison p.s. Grey Swan Live! with Matt Milner today at 11 a.m. ET. The topic: retail access to private markets. We’ll take a look at the opportunities we alerted you to (by email) for private shares in SpaceX, Starlink and xAi – poster children for this newfound enthusiasm for retail private equity.
More than that… we’ll examine fees, transparency, and how Trump-era policies are reshaping private placements altogether. Significant regulatory changes have already happened in April and then again in June. We’ll get the full appraisal from Matt. Bring a sharp question—this conversation will dig deep.
Your thoughts? Please send them here: addison@greyswanfraternity.com
How did we get here? Find out in these riveting reads: Demise of the Dollar, Financial Reckoning Day, and Empire of Debt — all three books are now available in their third post-pandemic editions. You might enjoy one or all three. 
(Or… simply pre-order Empire of Debt: We Came, We Saw, We Borrowed, now available at Amazon and Barnes & Noble or if you prefer one of these sites: Bookshop.org, Books-A-Million or Target.)
Please send your comments, reactions, opprobrium, vitriol and praise to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com |
Tidak ada komentar:
Posting Komentar